Our form expert Ben Linfoot delivers his verdict on Saturday's feature action and he has three bets at Cheltenham, featuring the Paddy Power Gold Cup.
The Verdict: Saturday, November 18
1pt win Angels Breath in 2.20 Cheltenham at 9/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, 8/1 General)
1pt win Harper’s Brook in 2.20 Cheltenham at 16/1 (General)
1pt win Judicial Law in 2.55 Cheltenham at 13/2 (bet365, 6/1 General)
Angels delight in Paddy Power
It’s a case of quality over quantity at Cheltenham Saturday, as only 14 from a maximum field of 20 have turned out for the Paddy Power Gold Cup – yet it’s a terrific renewal thanks to a highly-rated handful of novices from last season lining up.
Indeed, the presence of two Cheltenham Festival winners in The Real Whacker, rated 162 after his Grade 1 Brown Advisory win, and Stage Star, rated 155 after winning the Grade 1 Turners Novices’ Chase, gives this year’s race a real boost of class and a couple of the runners are forced to run from out of the handicap.
Two horses beaten by Stage Star in the Turners, Notlongtillmay and Unexpected Party, will bid to reverse the form in the receipt of weight from Paul Nicholls’ horse, while the gambled-on Easy As That, put up at 20/1 in Andrew Asquith’s Weekend View earlier in the week, is another novice from last season who boasts solid claims, although that particular ship has sailed at 9/1.
Indeed, the problem for day-of-race punters in a race like this is all of the interesting ones have been well backed already, and prices 7/1 and less about Stage Star, The Real Whacker and Notlongtillmay don’t really appeal given they have to give away plenty of weight to some potentially well-handicapped horses.
Local hero Nigel Twiston-Davies has a good record with horses come off a long absence and that brings his Torn And Frayed into things, but with Friday night's forecast rain set to turn things testing I'm not sure he'd really want a slog first time back off nearly two years off.
The one I think the classy horses might struggle to give the weight away to is Sam Thomas’ ANGELS BREATH, who has been well supported himself but remains backable at 8/1.
He looked a horse with a big future as a novice hurdler for Nicky Henderson, but he’s clearly had his issues as you would expect for a horse who had 1121 days off in between his last run for the Seven Barrows maestro and his first for Thomas.
That was a pulled-up effort at Kempton at the start of the year, but he showed much more when second at Chepstow after that and then his seasonal reappearance, here at Cheltenham over hurdles last time out, was really encouraging.
He traded at 1.34 in-running at Chepstow and then half his SP at Cheltenham, shaping on both occasions like the old engine remains intact and after that spin over hurdles last time it could be that Thomas has finally got him where he wants him for the very first time.
On his novice hurdling form and his first couple of goes over fences he looks extremely well treated off 144, as he really looked a horse going places, and the patience connections have clearly shown could be about to pay dividends.
Thomas’ team are in good form and he’s booked the services of last year’s winning jockey, Jonathan Burke, while the market support late in the week, though a bit annoying, can only be a good thing, too.
On what looks a quiet punting day otherwise I’m going to take two against the field in the feature as I can’t resist having a punt on Ben Pauling’s HARPER’S BROOK who looks a fair bet at 16/1.
He is 2lb out of the weights and has garnered a bit of a reputation for not being straightforward, the dreaded Timeform squiggle unleashed on this one after he has found various ways to lose throughout his career.
We saw the best and worst of him at Sandown in the Josh Gifford Novices’ Handicap Chase in April, as he looked set to win by five lengths when clear after the last, where he traded at 1.01, only for him to inexplicably pull himself up before he ran on again once headed.
Jockey Kielan Woods will have been beside himself that day but he actually gets the best out of this horse, having been on board for all three of his career victories, and he will know to play his hand late if he gets the chance in this.
He could do, as he goes really well first time up, will have no issue with the ground and he has the talent to travel away nicely and land a blow from the very bottom of the weights.
The Verdict: Back ANGELS BREATH & HARPER’S BROOK in the 2.20 Cheltenham
Jonjo to lay down the Law
It’s slim pickings elsewhere on the day with nothing much appealing at all.
I did consider Cap Du Nord in the amateur race as trainer Christian Williams has a good record in that type of event and this horse always seems to win when he drops to 127 – so he’s of obvious interest off 125 on Saturday.
The problem is he has looked highly regressive and it’s anyone’s guess as to whether he’s the force of old – I didn’t really fancy paying to find out with the ground likely to turn softer.
Later on the card the handicaps look trappy, but I don’t fancy favourite Buddy One in the Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle at 2.55 as he went up 9lb for winning a weak race at Galway and David Pipe’s well-backed Placenet looks too short to chance at 5/1 with plenty of guesswork required on the French import.
With plenty of chancy ones in opposition in the same race, the really solid one looks to be Jonjo O’Neill’s JUDICIAL LAW and I’m happy to back him at around 6/1.
The six-year-old son of Fame And Glory has been ultra-consistent – a trait that could take him a long way in this contest – his performance levels also going up a notch since cheekpieces were applied.
He followed up his Kelso win with an excellent effort in second here at the Showcase Meeting, beating all bar the in-form and well-handicapped Hyland from Nicky Henderson’s, shaping every inch like he just needed a bit more emphasis on stamina.
The good news is he’ll get that here over the identical track and trip on much softer ground, and given he’s in form and race-fit after running at the end of the summer he should see this out better than the majority.
The Verdict: Back JUDICIAL LAW in the 2.55 Cheltenham
Preview posted at 1500 GMT on 17/11/23
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