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Ben Linfoot free horse racing tips for Saturday ITV racing at Ascot and Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita
Our Ben Linfoot continued his good run with Aberama Gold at Doncaster last weekend - he has five bets for Saturday at Ascot and Santa Anita.
The Verdict: Saturday, November 4
1pt e.w With The Moonlight in the 7.10 Santa Anita at 20/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4 bet365, Ladbrokes)
1pt win double Mostahdaf 9.50 Santa Anita at 11/4 & Live In The Dream 11.25 Santa Anita at 3/1 (William Hill, Coral, Ladbrokes double pays 14/1)
1pt win Cruz Control in 1.30 Ascot at 11/2 (General)
1pt win Altobelli in 3.15 Ascot at 15/2 (bet365, Ladbrokes)
1pt win Yeah Man in 3.45 Ascot at 11/1 (General)
Breeders’ Cup bets
I’m looking forward to watching the action at the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita on Saturday evening and it could be another good night for the European raiders who have strong claims in the turf races.
The Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf over 1m4f is a belting contest with MOSTAHDAF, Auguste Rodin and King Of Steel all making the trip over and it’s the John & Thady Gosden-trained horse that appeals the most.
He loves fast ground and has an excellent record fresh, and while his top-level wins have all come over 1m2f he has won over 1m4f and the combination of this track and trip should be ideal for him.
King Of Steel could still be feeling the after-effects of his Champion Stakes and Auguste Rodin has a good few pounds to find with the selection on a line through Luxembourg, so he’ll likely have to be better than he’s ever been to beat the son of Frankel.
At 11/4 Mostahdaf looks the one to be on and I’m going to stick him in a double with LIVE IN THE DREAM at 3/1 in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at 11.25, the double paying 14/1.
Adam West’s speedy Nunthorpe winner could simply be too quick for his rivals around the very quick sprint course at Santa Anita, with last year’s winner Caravel vulnerable to a proper speedster who is lightning out of the blocks.
I like that he had a prep for this around Keeneland where he was well away, only for him to fade into fourth late on over the five-and-a-half furlongs.
From a good starting berth in stall five he can break quickly and make all over the bare five, with horses like Aesop’s Fables likely to find things happening all too quickly for all he could stay on well.
Finally, I’m prepared to take on Inspiral in the Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf over 10 furlongs at 7.10 on her first go at the trip.
She has been keen over a mile before so I wouldn’t be certain she’ll race efficiently at this trip and she could easily find trouble in the run from stall six as well.
Charlie Appleby only has two Breeders’ Cup runners this year but he has a fabulous nine from 18 record at the meeting and his 20/1 chance WITH THE MOONLIGHT looks to have been underestimated in this spot.
The key thing to this Frankel filly is the fast ground as she loves it firm, winning on such a ground description at Saratoga last year while she started the year in fine form at Meydan.
Soft ground scuppered her UK return at Newmarket in May and the rain was even about in Canada at Woodbine last time where she finished well to take second behind Fev Rover on her first start for five months.
I’d expect her to come on from that and reverse the form with the Mark Casse-trained horse and if Inspiral does underperform the Godolphin filly could have a big say in this under William Buick from stall three.
The Verdict: Back WITH THE MOONLIGHT each-way in the 7.10 Santa Anita
The Verdict: Back MOSTAHDAF 9.50 and LIVE IN THE DREAM 11.25 in a double at Santa Anita
Back the Man of the moment at Ascot
Fingers are firmly crossed Wetherby gets the green light on Saturday to allow Bravemansgame and Ahoy Senor to do battle in the track’s feature bet365 Charlie Hall Chase, but with Friday’s card abandoned and a 7am inspection called for Saturday it doesn’t look too good.
Luckily for us 18 races have been scheduled on ITV and ITV4 on Saturday as the late programming takes in the 40th Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita, while before that there’s some really good punting races at Ascot’s first jumps meeting of the season.
The Sodexo Live! Gold Cup Handicap Chase at 3.45 has the potential to stand out from the afternoon coverage, but with the two at the top of the market Monbeg Genius and Beauport both entered up at Carlisle on Sunday there is the possibility of some hefty Rule 4s.
Still, it’s a race I’m interested in playing in as a solid gallop looks likely with Zhiguli and Unanswered Prayers in the field and this could be set up for a race-fit hold-up horse.
Monbeg Genius has been at his best when prominent but if he does run this could be a launchpad to bigger targets and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he was done for fitness, while Beauport is more likely to be fit and ready but has been well found in the market.
The one that appeals to me is Gavin Cromwell’s YEAH MAN at 11/1 as he looks a dangerous improver from the foot of the weights.
He was fast-tracked into chasing after winning a point-to-point but he struggled under Rules until switching to hurdles a year ago, a switch that brought him forward significantly.
In the spring he reverted to fences and he went off favourite for his fourth race running for a novice handicap chase at Navan, where an early mistake saw him trail home in 10th.
That could have set him back massively, but five weeks later he was back out at Down Royal for a 3m2f handicap chase and he put in a career-best performance in second under a 7lb claimer who got him jumping much better.
Put away since then, it wouldn’t surprise if Cromwell has found the key and held him back, while it’s encouraging the stable is in such good form including those three winners he had at Cheltenham last weekend.
Jonathan Burke has been booked for the job and he rides Ascot well, and typically patient tactics on this improving six-year-old could pay dividends.
The Verdict: Back YEAH MAN in the 3.45 Ascot
Tuck into a Fry up at Ascot
It could be a good afternoon for Burke who rides Harry Fry’s Boothill in the Byrne Group Handicap Chase and ALTOBELLI for the same trainer in the Seat Unique Handicap Hurdle at 3.15.
Fry has a superb record at Ascot’s early jumps meetings, returning figures of 13 wins from 40 runners at 32.5% for the October/November fixtures at the track, and Altobelli is a fascinating handicap debutant from a mark of 131.
The five-year-old looked a novice of high ability last year, coming on plenty for his Ffos Las win when demolishing his rivals at Carlisle by 25 lengths after a powerful display of front-running under Bryan Carver.
Knockanore was 30 lengths behind him in third and he won a Ffos Las novice hurdle after that, while he was a close-up third in an Aintree handicap hurdle from a perch of 117 last month.
That’s one hint that Altobelli could be well-handicapped off 131, another is that he was pitched into Grade 1 company at Aintree’s Grand National meeting which just proved too much too soon as some iffy jumping saw him fall back down the field.
The potential remains, however, and given he’s a horse that goes well fresh for a trainer that can get them ready first time up, he’s too tempting a bet at 15/2.
The Verdict: Back ALTOBELLI in the 3.15 Ascot
Lacey in Cruz Control
Another bet that appeals at Ascot is CRUZ CONTROL in the Ascot Underwriting Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase at 11/2.
Trainer Tom Lacey is usually another trainer to follow in the early months of the campaign and though he had a blank October plenty of his defeated horses ran well and it looks a matter of time before he turns things around.
Cruz Control could be just the horse to help him do so, as he has already had a run after chasing home Matata on his chasing debut at Ffos Las last month, where he jumped well and ran on strongly for second after being outpaced over two miles.
He runs off 1lb lower here and is bred for a bit further, so it’s no surprise to see him step up to 2m3f and the trip could bring about significant improvement.
The Verdict: Back CRUZ CONTROL in the 1.30 Ascot
Preview posted at 1530 GMT on 03/11/23
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