Ben Linfoot free horse racing tips for Salisbury and day two of St Leger Festival Doncaster Friday September 13

The Verdict: Friday, September 13

1pt e.w. Dream Harder in 1.50 Doncaster at 25/1 (1/5 1,2,3 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill)

1pt win Point Lonsdale in 3.35 Doncaster at 6/1 (William Hill)

2pts win Magic Mild in 3.55 Salisbury at 7/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

On Point in the Doncaster Cup

Aidan O'Brien dominates the betting for the Betfred St Leger itself and, despite having just two runners, he could hit the headlines on day two at the Doncaster Festival as well.

That’s because his POINT LONSDALE runs in the Group 2 Betfred Howard Wright Doncaster Cup Stakes and in a weak renewal, with stablemate Kyprios having bigger fish to fry in the Irish St Leger, it looks a good chance for him to showcase what he can do as a stayer.

It has been a bit of a rollercoaster career for the son of Australia, but he has rarely missed when the money has been down – winning seven times from the eight occasions he was sent off favourite prior to defeat at York last time out.

Sent off 2/1 market leader for the Lonsdale Cup at the Ebor Festival, he was clearly thought to be in the groove but was beaten into fifth after a fairly tame performance left him floundering behind Vauban.

However, I would not put the defeat down to his first go at two miles, but rather the way the race unfolded with a moderate pace at a speed track like York hardly playing to his strengths.

A full-brother to Broome, who won a Group 2 over two miles, Point Lonsdale always looked like he’d end up in Cup races eventually and stamina very much looks a strong suit. This is the biggest test he’s ever had in that regard and he could be up to the challenge.

Of course, there is the possibility of a moderate pace again, but on ground that isn’t as rattling quick over an extra couple of furlongs – and at a price three times bigger than he was sent off at York – I want to be with him in this company.

The Verdict: Back POINT LONSDALE in the 3.35 Doncaster

Dream bet in the opener

Day two at Doncaster doesn’t scream puntathon by any means but I do want to take on the market leaders in the Betfred Mallard Handicap.

All of East India Dock, Subsequent and Shadow Dance have obvious chances on the back of last-time-out victories, but all three require a career-best to win this off higher marks and that levels the playing field.

On top of that Subsequent might need softer ground, East India Dock could need a longer trip and 1m6f might stretch Shadow Dance, so I’m not sure they deserve to dominate the betting quite like they are doing.

Playing an each-way bet in a dead-eight field is a dangerous game but I’ll keep my fingers crossed for no non-runners and back Ian Williams’ DREAM HARDER at 25/1.

He looks the outsider who can give the favourites most to think about for my money as he’s been running well all season and I like him tackling this 1m6f trip for the first time.

Poorly positioned at Chelmsford on the day he tried a similar distance over the extended 1m5f in July, he did well to get as close he did and it was a major hint that he’ll be capable of staying this far.

Since then he’s mostly been in good form, registering runner-up positions at Chester and at Ascot in the Shergar Cup, his in-running price of 1.2 at the latter track telling you how close he came to victory that day.

Last time at Southwell he ran okay back in trip after being pestered for the lead, but I reckon he’ll be happier in this smaller field over further and his pace for 1m4f could be a vital weapon if there isn’t much pace on.

Jamie Spencer, who has a 21% strike-rate for Williams, is a good man to have on side in this situation and there are a few other stats in our favour, too; Williams ‘no headgear this time/cheekpieces last time’ is a profitable system (+20.13 to SP) and Muhaarar progeny have a good record on Town Moor (19.05% strike-rate).

The Verdict: Back DREAM HARDER in the 1.50 York

Magic money at Salisbury

Finally, there’s a Friday bonus with ITV4 showing the rearranged Group 3 Dick Poole Fillies’ Stakes and three once-raced fillies head the betting.

All three made winning debuts, but if any of the trio win they will have to have improved and the market has somewhat taken that for granted.

However, experience can be a deciding factor in these juvenile contests at this time of year and in the last decade there have been no once-raced winners of the Dick Poole, so an extra run or two can be vital.

Indeed, even multiple Group 1 winner Alcohol Free was beaten in this race on her second start.

With this in mind, I want the in-form MAGIC MILD onside at 7/1, Clive Cox’s filly improving since a mid-season break to register two victories on her third and fourth runs on Newmarket’s July Course.

That makes her the form pick as far as I’m concerned and especially so after both races have worked out so well.

She’s uncomplicated, could get the run of this from the front and when the chips are down her experience could come to the fore under Saffie Osborne, who has a terrific 7/28 at 25% record for Cox.

The Verdict: Back MAGIC MILD in the 3.55 Salisbury

Preview posted at 1530 BST on 12/09/24

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