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Ben Linfoot free horse racing tips for Ripon and Newbury Saturday August 17
Our form expert is back from a break with four selections at Newbury, Newmarket and Ripon on Saturday.
The Verdict: Saturday, August 17
1.5pts win Al Qareem in 1.50 Newbury at 7/2 (William Hill, Coral)
1.5pts win First Folio in 2.05 Newmarket at 7/2 (bet365, 10/3 General)
1pt win Secret Guest in 3.20 Ripon at 16/1 (General)
1pt win Be Frank in 3.00 Newbury at 20/1 (Non Runner)
The Secret's out at Ripon
Ripon Racecourse has its day in the sun on Saturday as the William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap takes centre stage on ITV with 18 runners scheduled to go to post in the big-field sprint.
Old Summerghand is the favourite here at around 11/2, but he’s an easy one to take on at the prices given his running style demands serious luck in-running, something that won’t be guaranteed coming from behind on this track from a stands’ rail draw in 18.
He is undoubtedly well handicapped now off 89 – he was a head second in this race last year off 97 – but the risk and reward do not match up at his current odds.
It’s not a race where any of those towards the head of the market look to have anything more than a good chance and I want to cast the net a bit wider with Bryan Smart’s SECRET GUEST appealing at 16/1.
He had wind surgery and a couple of months off after a rare below-par run at Haydock in early June but he returned at Redcar last week with a very encouraging second behind Makanah.
It wasn’t a strong race by any means, but it was a lovely platform from which Secret Guest can work and Smart employed a very similar schedule for his last St Wilfrid winner, Nameitwhatyoulike, who had over two months off before a Hamilton run blew away the cobwebs ahead of his Ripon victory in 2016.
Secret Guest needs a stronger gallop than he got at Redcar last Saturday and that looks guaranteed here, while he’s drawn around likely pace angles Kitai and Radio Goo Goo which should ensure he gets a nice tow into the race.
This time last year on this very day he was denied a clear run when going well in the Grey Horse Handicap at Newmarket’s July Course, while he’s just 1lb above his last winning mark, too, so there are quite a few clues that point towards him being a good bet in a tricky race.
The Verdict: Back SECRET GUEST in the 3.20 Ripon
Qareem to win battle of the Als
There’s a good card over at Newbury and I want to take on odds-on favourite Al Aasy in the opening Group 3 BetVictor Geoffrey Freer Stakes over the extended 1m5f.
William Haggas’ horse may have shaken off his Timeform squiggle but he remains a horse to be wary of when going off a short price given he’s been defeated at 7/4, 1/2, 4/6 and 11/10 in the past, while he carries a penalty here over the longest trip he has ever attempted.
He has to be ridden cold and he looks vulnerable to a hard-as-nails galloper that just keeps on going which brings me to AL QAREEM who can bounce back from his Goodwood Cup defeat.
Karl Burke’s horse ended up being a sitting duck to some classier stayers in Sussex but this trip and track is much more his bag as he’s a strong galloper with a good attitude at this sort of distance.
His best run this season came at this track in April over 1m4f where he pushed Hamish all the way off level weights when there was a bit of cut in the ground – no mean feat – and there’s every chance he gets the run of the race from the front end under Clifford Lee.
The Verdict: Back AL QAREEM in the 1.50 Newbury
Folio can be First in grey heat
Finally, FIRST FOLIO looks the bet of the day at 7/2 in the JenningsBet Grey Horse Handicap at Newmarket.
Julie Camacho has been struggling for winners all season but she is flying again now and this horse drops into a Class 4 for the first time since he hacked up on his British debut three years ago.
He’s taken time to find his way since moving to his new stable from James Ferguson’s but there has been promise in his last two runs at Thirsk and Hamilton, especially last time when he was beaten by a couple of course specialists.
A mark of 86 is, again, his lowest rating since his British debut and it allows him to drop into this 0-85, while he’s got very good July Course form off a much higher mark of 98.
The Verdict: Back FIRST FOLIO in the 2.05 Newmarket
Taking a chance on Be Frank (Non Runner)
Later on at Newbury the TPT Fire Handicap looks a good race but there isn't loads of early pace on show and track position could be vital.
I think the layers are taking a bit of a chance dangling 20/1 about BE FRANK, a horse that has gone off 4/1, 18/5 and 100/30 favourite in three runs since an encouraging return at Newmarket's Guineas meeting where he was a close-up fourth in a hot handicap (Noble Dynasty beating English Oak into second).
He’s been running well all season without winning, but has now moved from the struggling Henry Candy yard to Ian Williams, who has a deft touch with this type of horse from other stables.
Williams did an excellent job with the last horse he got from Candy, Alfred Boucher improving 11lb in four runs, and Be Frank will only have to find a little improvement to get his head in front again, especially with the handicapper giving him a chance.
He flits between six and seven furlongs, but his six-furlong pace might be a vital weapon the way this could pan out and a chance is taken on him at big odds.
The Verdict: Back BE FRANK in the 3.00 Newbury
Preview posted at 1450 BST on 16/08/24
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