Our form expert has four selections for the ITV action from Newmarket and York on Saturday.
The Verdict: Saturday October 12
1pt win Peace Man in 1.15 Newmarket at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Too Soon in 1.50 Newmarket at 10/1 (bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
1pt win Sisyphean in 2.05 York at 17/2 (William Hill, 15/2 General)
1pt win King’s Lynn in the 2.40 York at 14/1 (William Hill, 12/1 General)
Too Soon to star in the Zetland?
National Hunt trainers have dominated the Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap in recent years, winning the last six, and it will probably go that way again this time around with Willie Mullins, Emmet Mullins, Gavin Cromwell and Gordon Elliott all having fancied horses.
Only 25 run in what can be a maximum field of 34 and half of them are trained in Ireland, Willie Mullins’ Sea Of Sands heading the market after he won on his hurdling debut in a canter at Listowel just over two weeks ago – his first run for over two years.
His BHA mark of 95 could be lenient looking at that run plus his old form in Germany, and with connections quick to book Rowley Mile maestro William Buick it’s no wonder his chance hasn’t been missed by the market.
I’m not in any rush to take him, Jacovec Cavern, Sixandahalf and Ndaawi on and given any of them could win, depending on their various fitness levels at this time of year with hurdling campaigns looming large, it’s a race I’m happy to leave alone.
The Group 1 Darley Dewhurst Stakes offers up a Coolmore v Godolphin tussle between Aidan O’Brien’s The Lion In Winter and Charlie Appleby’s Shadow Of Light and Ancient Truth, and it looks a cracking contest.
I thought the gears Shadow Of Light displayed in the Middle Park could be a key factor in this race but his price was getting much closer to The Lion In Winter’s on Friday afternoon so again it looks a race to watch and enjoy.
There are plenty of other punting avenues to explore on a busy afternoon and it’s Gary & Josh Moore’s TOO SOON that looks the best bet at Newmarket in the Group 3 Palace Pier Zetland Stakes for two-year-olds over 10 furlongs.
He’s sixth best in the betting but his form is arguably the second best in the race and there’s the promise of more improvement to come now he steps up in trip to a mile-and-a-quarter.
By the Dewhurst winner Too Darn Hot, he’s got bags of stamina on his dam’s side and he’s improved with each run, shaping well in defeat on debut at Goodwood and again in a hot Ascot maiden before he won nicely at Epsom last time out.
He beat a well-touted horse of Ralph Beckett’s called Anniversary at Epsom and he was well on top at the line, impressing with the way he travelled and put the race to bed, even if he did bag the favoured stands’ rail on heavy ground.
I wouldn’t pigeon-hole him as a soft ground horse, though, as he just looks to be improving whatever the conditions and he is underestimated at 10/1 in this company.
The Verdict: Back TOO SOON in the 1.50 Newmarket
Give Peace a chance in the Darley Stakes
The opening race at Newmarket, the Group 3 Space Blues Darley Stakes, looks more wide open than the betting suggests and it could get tactical with no regular front-runner in the race.
With this in mind I thought the returning PEACE MAN was worth a go at 12/1 on his first start for 470 days as he was a real promising type when last seen and he had been going forward in his races.
Highly-progressive in handicap company last year, winning two such races at Windsor and Newmarket’s July Course that saw him go from 86-rated to 102, he’s clearly had some sort of setback but it’s interesting he’s pitched into Group 3 company on his return.
He has a bit to find on the ratings including with his John & Thady Gosden-trained stablemate Lead Artist, but I like the fact he could be well positioned and that he stays further.
Gosden does really well with his horses coming off a long absence and especially so if they’ve been gelded during their time off (10 wins from 25 at 40% since 2009 after a year or more off the track).
The Verdict: Back PEACE MAN in the 1.15 Newmarket
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King can be crowned on the Knavesmire
Over at York it’s much softer ground for the Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap and with the three-year-olds not particularly convincing this could go to one of the more grizzled members of the party.
The one I’m going to take a chance on is Andrew Balding’s KING’S LYNN at 14/1, as while he’s on a long losing run I think he’s got a good chance from this mark now he tackles six furlongs on soft ground.
His isolated form figures on soft ground are 2-3-2-1-2-6-9-2 and that ninth was in this race last year when he was second home in the stands’ side group after being drawn on the wrong side.
He finished just on the heels of Strike Red and Room Service, a pair shorter in the market for this race, on quicker than ideal conditions in the Ayr Gold Cup last time, and he shaped well over six-and-a-half furlongs when second on soft ground at Doncaster the time before.
I've often felt King's Lynn could do with a bit of assistance from the headgear department, so it looks a positive cheekpieces are applied for the first time, and if they squeeze a bit more out of him he can have a big say in the finish.
The Verdict: Back KING’S LYNN in the 2.40 York
Sis can be bliss on the Knavesmire
Finally, SISYPHEAN should enjoy the softest ground he has ever faced in the Coral “Daily Rewards Shaker” Handicap over the extended 10 furlongs at York.
Kevin Ryan's three-year-old is by Dubawi out of a Lope De Vega mare, a pedigree that screams soft ground, and he's got the knee action to match.
The worst ground he’s ever run on was good to soft at York two starts ago when he bolted up by five lengths and he shaped really well off his revised mark on quicker conditions at Goodwood last time, fully suggesting he can defy his new rating when granted the right opportunity.
With the ground in his favour that could well be on Saturday at a track he likes and a bold bid is expected from the front end under Tom Eaves.
The Verdict: Back SISYPHEAN in the 2.05 York
Preview posted at 1600 BST on 11/10/24
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