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Ben Linfoot free horse racing tips for King George day at Ascot plus York tips
Our form expert has five selections for King George day at Ascot and Sky Bet Dash day at York this Saturday.
The Verdict tips: Saturday, July 27
1pt win Mandurah in 1.50 Ascot at 9/2 (William Hill)
2pts win Friendly Soul in 2.25 Ascot at 5/1 (BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports)
1pt e.w. Ferrous in 2.40 York at 16/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Billyjoh in 3.00 Ascot at 11/1 (Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt win Rebel’s Romance in 3.40 Ascot at 4/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
Rebel with a cause in King George
We had a thrilling renewal of the Group 1 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes at Ascot 12 months ago and this year’s contest has the potential to be just as compelling.
Auguste Rodin is box office and you can see why he’s chalked up as the 5/4 favourite with the latest of his six Group 1 wins coming at Royal Ascot last month, but this is a tough test for him.
His no-show in this race last year came on rain-softened ground and is probably worth putting a line through in isolation, but his Derby win seemed to take the edge off him last summer and I wonder if his battling Prince of Wales’s victory might do the same?
Either way he looks short enough here against an underestimated rival in REBEL'S ROMANCE who looks the bet at 4/1 to land Charlie Appleby and Godolphin a second King George in four years.
His last three wins over 1m4f look pretty much on a par with Auguste Rodin's best performances at the trip and he's done it in style, suggesting he could take his form to an even higher level if necessary.
Appleby really seems to have got him in a good routine now, his last four races all yielding wins on the back of six to eight week breaks and he comes in here on the back of another two months off which looks ideal.
He looks versatile regarding how his races are run, as while he stays strongly and would benefit from a solid gallop he showed in Meydan he’s dangerous off a more sedate pace and he's a big threat to the Aidan O'Brien mob however they play this.
I see absolutely no reason why he can’t replicate his international form in this country – he is actually five from five in England – and if any of his last three overseas wins had been on these shores he’d probably be a point or two shorter.
His Sheema Classic win over Japanese filly Liberty Island stands up well against any of the mile and a half form in this field and he’s taken to be too strong for his rivals.
The Verdict: Back REBEL’S ROMANCE in the 3.40 Ascot
Gosden team unleash Friendly fire
The best bet on the King George undercard looks to be John & Thady Gosden’s FRIENDLY SOUL in the Group 3 Longines Valiant Stakes over a mile on the round course.
Her excellent Listed Pretty Polly Stakes win in the spring has been well advertised by the second, Kalpana, both when she was third in the Ribblesdale and when bolting up at Hamilton last week, underlining the suggestion that two smart fillies pulled 12 lengths clear of their rivals at Newmarket back in May.
It all went wrong for Friendly Soul in the Musidora at York after that, but the quick 10-day turnaround didn’t look ideal at the time and it could’ve played a part in the daughter of Kingman hanging her chance away on the Knavesmire.
Gosden clearly wanted to get more experience into her ahead of a tilt at the Prix de Diane, an indication of the high regard in which she is held, but understandably completely eased off her after York.
It's interesting she returns at a mile and it’s likely a springboard to going back up in trip, but she has gears and with the Gosden team in fine form she’s taken to bounce back on her way to having a crack at a higher level.
The Verdict: Back FRIENDLY SOUL in the 2.25 Ascot
Billyjoh can be International star
I thought all week I’d be backing Orazio in the Moet & Chandon International Stakes such was his eye-catching run in the Wokingham with a view to this first-ever go at seven furlongs.
His price has been predictably nibbled at throughout the week, though, and then he got saddled with a low draw on the far side in three which is just enough to put me off at skinnier prices.
A middle to stands’ side draw is what is usually preferable in this race and that’s where the early pace is on Saturday with Dancing Magic (11), Eminency (13) and Aalto (14) a near-side trio that should push the gallop.
That’s good news for Fresh and Bless Him, who love this track, and both were on the shortlist, but BILLYJOH has drifted to a very backable price and he has more upside than that pair.
Mick Appleby’s horse bumped into a potential Group-class performer in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot in English Oak, who could star at Goodwood next week in the Lennox Stakes, but he was clear best of the rest after running on strongly.
Indeed, beating 24 rivals on the Ascot heath on his first go at seven furlongs was no mean feat and there was an element of him being ridden to get the trip, with Hollie Doyle holding him up in last in the near-side group.
She had to switch him four horse-widths wide to make his challenge in the final quarter mile and he stayed on strongly for second, proving himself at the distance and underlining his good form at the track.
He’s gone up 2lb for that effort but he’s massively unexposed at this distance relative to this field and with Rossa Ryan back in the saddle another bold bid is expected.
The Verdict: Back BILLYJOH in the 3.00 Ascot
Take on Simmering with Crisford charge
Earlier on the Ascot card Simon & Ed Crisford’s MANDURAH looks worth backing in the Group 3 Sodexo Live! Princess Margaret Stakes.
The Kingman filly made a very good impression on debut at Newmarket, travelling nicely before being nudged out for a very cosy success over Roger Varian’s Miss Fascinator, who boosted the form with a smart win at Ascot on Friday.
She’s the pick of the three once-raced winners taking on Simmering here, the form pick who ran a fine second in the Albany Stakes behind Fairy Godmother at Royal Ascot.
That’s a fair standard, but I think she liked the big field that day and if she’s as slowly away in this smaller group she might struggle to replicate the form.
The Crisfords are flying and with improvement expected from their Mandurah she’s taken to improve past Simmering to land the prize.
The Verdict: Back MANDURAH in the 1.50 Ascot
Ferrous appeal in Sky Bet Dash
Over at York it’s the Sky Bet Dash and Charlie Hills’ progressive Trefor might be improving too quickly for them, but his strong finish at Newmarket last time has resulted in an 8lb rise and this looks a tougher test.
I’m going to give another chance to Jack Channon’s FERROUS after backing him at Royal Ascot in the Wokingham, where he was keen in the disadvantaged near-side group before finding trouble in his run at a crucial point.
It was a bit of a disaster and David Probert went easy on him when his chance had gone, so I’m happy to draw a line through the run and remember the promise of his previous starts.
Two all-weather wins in the spring were followed by an encouraging third at Newbury and there’s no doubt he looked an improving sprinter for being gelded in the early part of the season.
He’s a strong traveller with a bit of pace about him, so he looks ideal for York, and I like his draw on the wing as he should get plenty of space towards the stands’ side to make his challenge, if they form a central group as is typical in a Knavesmire sprint.
The Verdict: Back FERROUS in the 2.40 York
Preview posted at 1440 BST on 26/07/24
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