Our form expert has three selections for Saturday's ITV Racing at Kempton, Newcastle and Southwell.
The Verdict: Saturday February 22
1pt win Ilikedwayurthinkin in 2.10 Newcastle at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Fivethousandtoone in 2.40 Southwell at 16/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Heltenham in 3.35 Kempton at 12/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4)
Skelton to strike in Saturday feature
Some unexposed novices dominate the betting for the Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase at Kempton on Saturday with Hyland and Lowry’s Bar finding themselves at the top of the market.
There’s lots to like about both of them with the former probably preferring no rain and the latter wanting as much of the wet stuff as possible, so either way one of these lightly-raced chasers looks set to get ideal conditions.
The forecast has been up and down somewhat but there looks to be showers coming at the track through Friday evening, perhaps 6mm, which should at least help those who don’t really want it too quick.
However, with the market quickly latching onto the aforementioned duo I’d rather go with experience at the prices and with that in mind it’s Dan Skelton’s HELTENHAM that makes most appeal at the odds.
There are several angles with him as he’s back down to his last winning mark of 136 and his first two runs of the season looked nothing more than a platform for the second half of the campaign, which starts now.
He ran well at this meeting last year in the 2m4f handicap chase behind Saturday rival Golden Son and while Paul Nicholls’ horse is better off at the weights it’s the Skelton runner that is the interesting one at the trip.
His running-on second at this track 12 months ago wasn’t the only time he’s suggested he’s worth a go over three miles and it looks significant that Skelton has resisted from trying the distance until a decent pot is on the line.
Sire Masked Marvel can be a strong stamina influence as he’s shown with the likes of Teahupoo and One Big Bang, while I strongly like the idea of Heltenham travelling away, using his 2m4f pace, over three miles at a speed track like Kempton.
The Verdict: Back HELTENHAM in the 3.35 Kempton
Think first in the Eider
Over at Newcastle Ben Haslam can strike with JP McManus’ ILIKEDWAYURTHINKIN in the Virgin Bet Eider Handicap Chase over the marathon trip of the extended 4m1f.
The 11-year-old has been revitalised by a plummeting handicap mark and the return of cheekpieces, not looking back since dropping to a rating of 110 which he took advantage of at Cartmel.
Another win there and further victories at Ayr and Newcastle have seen him return to a mark of 129 here, but that still leaves him well treated on his best form and he’ll love the better ground up at Newcastle.
Staying trips are another area of potential improvement, as he absolutely bolted up over 3m6f at this track at the end of November and this looks to have been his target ever since.
Haslam has a 22% strike-rate at Newcastle and in races everywhere over 3m3f and more he’s six from 18 at 33% (+£42.10 to £1 at SP), so there’s plenty to like about his horse’s chance at generous double-figure prices.
The Verdict: Back Ilikedwayurthinkin in 2.10 Newcastle
Fivethousandtoone looks big
Finally, there’s good all-weather Flat action on the Winter Derby card at Southwell and I want to chance FIVETHOUSANDTOONE on his first ever go at five furlongs in the Listed BetUK Hever Sprint Stakes.
He looked the fastest Frankel in training when he sprinted away from his rivals in the sprint handicap on All-Weather Championships day at Newcastle last March over six furlongs and even that distance is one he has been keen over.
That included last time out at Kempton on his stable debut for Tim Easterby and on the back of that effort it’s no real surprise to see him dropped to the minimum trip here.
He looks an all-weather specialist these days and he’s proven on more than one occasion at Newcastle that he goes very well on a Tapeta surface, while there’s going to be pace to track either side of him from his central draw.
Marshman is an understandable favourite given what he’s done since being gelded and undergoing wind surgery, but on his Tapeta form Fivethousandtoone looks overpriced.
The Verdict: Back FIVETHOUSANDTOONE in the 2.10 Southwell
Preview posted at 1500 GMT on 21/02/25
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