Our form expert has five selections at Doncaster, Kelso and Newbury on Saturday afternoon including a strong fancy trained by Dan Skelton.
The Verdict: Saturday, March 2
2pts win Heltenham in 1.55 Newbury at 8/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Rich Spirit in 2.17 Kelso at 20/1 (BetVictor 1/5 1,2,3,4, 16/1 bet365, Sky Bet, Hills, Betfred)
1pt win Skycutter in 2.50 Kelso at 7/1 (General)
1pt win Minella Drama in 3.25 Kelso at 9/1 (bet365, Hills)
1pt win Java Point in 3.40 Doncaster at 8/1 (General)
Heltenham a Great bet for Skelton
It’s already heavy ground at Newbury with more showers forecast, but that won’t bother Dan Skelton's HELTENHAM who looks the bet of the day in the BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase on Saturday.
The seven-year-old has an excellent record in testing conditions and he has only finished out of the first two twice in eight starts over fences, his good second to Golden Son at Kempton last week an indication he’s still progressing well.
He won three in a row over fences last season, culminating in a decisive victory at this track where he came from the rear to run out an easy winner from a handicap mark of 123.
It seems remarkable he’s only off 7lb higher here, but he’s mixed hurdles and fences so far this season - last weekend’s runner-up effort just his second chasing start of the campaign – and if he didn’t have to switch late on at Kempton he might’ve won.
Skelton’s record with handicap chasers backing up within a week is a superb 14 wins from 46 at 30.43%, so we’ll take the hint and double down on stakes at a big looking 8/1.
The Verdict: Back HELTENHAM in the 1.55 Newbury
Go into ‘Battle with Skycutter
Skelton also travels north with SKYCUTTER who runs in the bet365 Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso, with 18 lining up thanks in part to the £100,000 bonus on the line for any horse that wins this race and at the Cheltenham Festival.
Skycutter won’t be doing the double as he doesn’t have any Cheltenham entries, given he’s only rated 121, but he is an interesting horse for this race after he put in a career-best performance on just his third start for Skelton last time out.
That came at Carlisle where he scythed his way through the field to win over 2m1f with plenty in hand, his 6lb rise of no surprise given his dominance.
Rated 127 after his first two starts over hurdles for Phil Kirby, there’s still mileage in his current rating and given he was rated 98 on the Flat, as well, you have to think he could progress even further in the handicap hurdle sphere.
There should be a proper gallop on here given the size of the field and the presence of frontrunners like The Churchill Lad, Caithness and Geromino, so the race could well be run to suit Skycutter who makes plenty of appeal on the back of a confidence-boosting win.
The Verdict: Back SKYCUTTER in the 2.50 Kelso
Bank on Drama in Premier Chase
In direct contrast to the Morebattle the bet365 Premier Chase has a small field and a possible lack of pace in it with all eyes on Grand National hopeful Monbeg Genius.
He hasn’t run well on his last two seasonal reappearances and has a three-month lay-off to contend with here, while he made mistakes in the Coral Gold Cup for all that he ran well in third.
There’s no doubt he’s the most interesting horse in the race going forward, but he could be vulnerable on Saturday and with that in mind I’m taking a punt on Donald McCain’s MINELLA DRAMA.
He hasn’t run over three miles under Rules but he came from the point-to-point field and looks well worth a go at the trip, while his two-and-a-half mile pace could prove vital in the circumstances.
Certainly, he looks the most obvious pace angle in this race and he’s the highest-rated horse in the field well suited by the race conditions.
His course win is another feather in his cap and he will probably have needed his first run since wind surgery last time out – McCain’s strike-rate following wind surgery rising to 19.44% on their second run since the procedure (12.5% ws1).
The Verdict: Back MINELLA DRAMA in the 3.25 Kelso
Get Rich quick backing Smith charge
Nicky Henderson’s Jango Baie is the one to beat in the Grade 2 bet365 Premier Novices’ Hurdle at Kelso, but he has a penalty and better ground to overcome so I’d rather take him on with an each-way bet.
Sue Smith won this race with 16/1 shot Mwaleshi in 2013 and I reckon she has another interesting outsider this year in RICH SPIRIT, who is improving quickly since stepping up in trip beyond two miles.
He travelled a bit too sweetly last time out over the extended 2m3f at Doncaster, racing keenly in the first half of the race, but he stayed on well to close on the winner, Geromino, after the last, despite hanging to his left, and he looks to have plenty more to offer.
The slight drop in trip and likely strong gallop look in his favour here, and while he will have to improve again to get involved he is progressing the right way and odds of 20/1 underestimate his chance with four places available with several layers - 16/1 is fine getting the extra place.
The Verdict: Back RICH SPIRIT in the 2.17 Kelso
Making a Point at Doncaster
Finally, back JAVA POINT in the Grimthorpe Handicap Chase at Doncaster.
Henry Oliver’s horse took advantage of his sliding mark when winning off 126 at Sandown last time, but he travelled all over his rivals and was value for much more than the length-and-a-half he had in hand over Certainly Red at the line.
That reduced deficit did him a favour, though, the handicapper putting him up just 4lb and that means he’s still well-treated on his old form on what will be just his third start for Oliver this weekend.
Unlike plenty of his rivals he won’t mind the softer ground and he has a good Doncaster run amongst his back form, so he has plenty in his favour.
Oliver had a double from just two runners on this corresponding weekend last year when his The Big Bite won the aforementioned Greatwood and Gentle Frank scored on this Doncaster card, and Java Point could well ensure he hits the headlines again.
The Verdict: Back JAVA POINT in the 3.40 Doncaster
Preview posted at 1520 GMT on 01/03/24
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