Our form expert had an 11/1 winner on day one of the Cambridgeshire meeting and now has two selections for day two at Newmarket on Friday.
Definitive call in the Rockfel
Plenty more rain is forecast overnight at Newmarket and we could be looking at very testing ground conditions on day two of the Cambridgeshire meeting.
I wouldn’t say that looks a positive for hot favourite Time Lock in the Group 3 Princess Royal Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Stakes, and I’m not surprised the market has cottoned on to the chance of John & Thady Gosden’s Place Of Safety.
This unexposed daughter of Night Of Thunder has plenty to find on the ratings, but after just three starts she’s hugely unexposed and she has the knee action of a filly that will relish a bit of soft ground.
In a race three-year-olds have a good record in I’m expecting a career-best run from her, but at 3/1 she’s been well found and I’ll leave the race alone.
I do want to have a bet in the Group 2 Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Rockfel Stakes, though, as while Formal has undeniably looked promising in two starts to date, she looks short enough at around 5/4 up in class at Group 2 level.
She could well win handsomely, but I’ll be backing Clive Cox’s DEFINITIVE to outrun her odds of 16/1 under Rossa Ryan.
Cox’s two-year-olds have been running well all year – he’s +£56.96 to £1 at SP with his juveniles this turf season – and he’s very good at stepping them up in trip at the right time.
We saw that just last week with Aysgarth, who improved markedly to win a Newbury nursery on his first go at seven furlongs, and Definitive looks likely to improve on her first go at seven, as well.
I loved how she made ground up under hands and heels riding to finish a close-up fourth in the Group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot last time, a race won by a very good filly in Simmering.
That suggested Definitive will relish seven furlongs, as befitting her pedigree, and Cox used the same contest as a stepping stone for his last Rockfel winner, Isabella Giles, in 2020.
The ground is complete guesswork, but Dark Angel progeny tend to go on anything and the very fact Cox put her away for an autumn campaign suggests he was well prepared to run her on softer ground at this stage of the season.
The Verdict: Back DEFINITIVE in the 3.00 Newmarket
Making a Fair Point in the opener
I really like Prague in the Group 2 Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Joel Stakes, but I must admit I was hoping for a little bigger than 4/1 and backing him at those odds with the very real prospect of a hefty Rule 4 hanging over the race makes little appeal.
There looks to be less chance of the Listed Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai British EBF Rosemary Stakes cutting up and this is a race that three-year-olds have dominated over the years.
John & Thady Gosden’s Spiritual is from that age group and she heads the betting, but while the softer ground should play to her strengths over this trip she looks to be crying out for even further and she does have a small penalty to carry.
I think she’ll lead and try and make this a real test, but that could play into the hands of Ralph Beckett’s FAIR POINT who is another three-year-old on an upward curve.
The daughter of Farhh made all at her own tempo at Ascot last time out, winning a good handicap comfortably on soft ground, but she could be even better with a target to aim at and I’d say she’ll keep close tabs on Spiritual.
She’s another who has a fair bit to find on the ratings, but this full-sister to Prix du Moulin winner Tribalist is only just getting going now she’s tackling a mile in soft conditions and further improvement is expected on her eighth career start.
With the Ralph Beckett yard in red-hot form, Fair Point can take a big leap forward in the opener.
The Verdict: Back FAIR POINT in the 1.50 Newmarket
Preview posted at 1555 BST on 26/09/24
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