Our form expert has three selections at Cheltenham on Saturday and one at Newcastle, including in the feature Paddy Power Gold Cup.
The Verdict: Saturday November 16
1pt win Jimmy The Digger in 1.10 Cheltenham at 11/1 (William Hill, 10/1 bet365)
1pt e.w. Hartur D’Arc in 2.20 Cheltenham at 20/1 (Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt win Thanksforthehelp in 2.55 Cheltenham at 8/1 (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes)
2pts win Tyrrhenian Sea in 3.15 Newcastle at 11/2 (bet365)
Today's Request-A-Bet
- PROTEKTORAT to place in 2.20 Cheltenham
- THANKSFORTHEHELP to place 2.55 Cheltenham
- HAMSIYANN to win 3.30 Cheltenham
See the light with D’Arc at Cheltenham
It took Paul Nicholls years to win the Paddy Power Gold Cup but he’s firmly in the groove now and he goes for his fourth success in the contest in the last 13 renewals on Saturday.
The Ditcheat maestro has two strings to his bow this time around and they are both in the top three in the betting, with clear favourite Ginny’s Destiny almost a replica of last year’s hero, Stage Star.
Expected to play at hand at the top level at some point this season, there could yet be mileage in a handicap mark of 155 and with excellent course form up his sleeve he could jump them silly from the front end.
The main problem I have with him is the ground, as he improved throughout his novice season on soft conditions and he looks to me like a future three-miler who has been utilising his stamina over intermediate trips.
With that in mind I’m not sure he’ll be able to burn this field off on good ground and at 3/1 I’m happy to have a go against him each-way with one at a bigger price.
Ga Law and Il Ridoto look the solid ones in that regard, while In Excelsis Deo is a player if he gets a strong gallop to aim at and jumps well, but the one I keep coming back to is Gavin Cromwell’s HARTUR D’ARC.
The bookies are taking a chance dangling big prices about one from this yard who is so unexposed, the seven-year-old having had just the five chase starts including when not staying in the Irish Grand National when last seen.
He’s also just had the three starts for Cromwell but he shaped really well in the first two, winning easily in a beginners’ chase at Clonmel before landing the Leinster National at Naas where he travelled into the race smoothly.
Both of those successes suggest he has the gears for two and a half miles and it’s encouraging that he won a point to point and a maiden hurdle on good ground.
With all that in mind it’s no wonder Cromwell has pinpointed this race for him and he has secured the services of Johnny Burke who won this race two years ago on the aforementioned Ga Law.
Cromwell targets this meeting these days having had three winners here the last couple of seasons and, from just 1lb out of the handicap, this horse looks more of a danger from the foot of the weights than his odds imply.
You can get a bit bigger than 20/1 but we'll back him with the sponsors who go five places.
The Verdict: Back HARTUR D’ARC in the 2.20 Cheltenham
Give Thanks another chance
The plunge continues on Tony Martin’s Hamsiyann in the Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle at 3.30 and while I’ve missed the boat there he looks to have a hell of a chance and I don’t want to take him on.
He gave stablemate and Cesarewitch winner Alphonse Le Grande a stone at Chester in May for a narrow defeat and on his previous start over hurdles at Ascot he was a big eyecatcher.
Stepping up in trip over timber, it’s easy to see him in cruise control at the foot of the hill and he could go off shorter still and win well.
I’ll sidestep that race in favour of backing THANKSFORTHEHELP in the From The Horses Mouth Podcast Handicap over three miles at 2.55.
David Pipe’s grey son of Martaline went off the 100/30 favourite for the Pertemps Final at the 2023 Festival before weakening into midfield, but he’s come down 10lb in the weights since then and now looks the time for him to bounce back.
He had a pipe opener, pardon the pun, at Uttoxeter last month and I wouldn’t pay any attention to that result on his first run in 237 days with the cheekpieces removed.
It should’ve put him spot on for this and the handicapper has taken a chance dropping him 9lb in two runs, back to a mark just 1lb higher than when he absolutely bolted up at Chepstow in the February of last year.
With the cheekpieces back on and the stable in good form it wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s on a going day and if that’s the case he’s a threat to all.
The Verdict: Back THANKSFORTHEHELP in the 2.55 Cheltenham
Digger for gold in the amateur race
Away from the ITV cameras the Steel Plate & Sections Ltd Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase looks a good race for a bet and I can see JIMMY THE DIGGER running well.
Henry Daly’s horse had been in the doldrums for a bit but he bounced right back to form with his second behind The Newest One at this track last time out where he lost a bit of ground when short of room on the turn for home.
He was jumped across two from the finish as well and, all things considered, he’s fancied to reverse the form with the winner here with a 2lb swing also in his favour.
They’ll need to go a good gallop to bring his stamina into play, but that could well be the case with Deise Aba and Captain Speaking two candidates to keep The Newest One honest on the front end.
He has a course and distance win to his name from a 2lb higher mark and now he has proven he still has what it takes to compete at this level he's worth siding with at double-figure prices.
The Verdict: Back JIMMY THE DIGGER in the 1.10 Cheltenham
Sea the star at Newcastle
Finally, Roger Varian’s TYRRHENIAN SEA can land the Listed BetUK Churchill Stakes on the all-weather at Newcastle.
The six-year-old learnt his trade on this Tapeta surface, rattling out a hat-trick in his first three starts here before he tried his hand on the turf.
He isn’t quite as good on the grass, but he resumed his improvement back on the polytrack at Lingfield last winter, finishing runner-up in the Winter Derby and winning the Quebec Stakes over his ideal 10-furlong trip.
Not seen since this year’s Winter Derby at Southwell where he ran well in third, he has a 266-day absence to overcome but he’s gone well fresh in the past and Varian is a master at bringing them back off a long time off.
His record with horses returning off 250+ days off on the all-weather is 24/74 at 32.43% and his horse can make the most of the 7lb he gets from Dubai Honour, who is unproven at Newcastle and on a Tapeta surface.
The Verdict: Back TYRRHENIAN SEA in the 3.15 Newcastle
Preview posted at 1555 GMT on 15/11/24
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