Our form expert tipped 13/2 winner King Turgeon in his last column, now get his two selections for the first day of the November Meeting at Cheltenham on Friday.
The Verdict: Friday November 15
1pt win Boothill in 2.20 Cheltenham at 9/1 (General)
1pt win Letterston Lily in 4.00 Cheltenham at 8/1 (bet365, 15/2 888sport, 7/1 General)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Jonbon gets the Boot in the Shloer
Day one of the November Meeting at Cheltenham and after a schedule rejig it’s Jonbon and his Shloer Chase counterparts that headline the action.
Nicky Henderson’s eight-year-old is expected to win as odds of 2/5 will tell you, but at such prohibitive prices I want to take him on.
The Henderson yard has been slow to come to hand as you might expect, for starters, while Jonbon, for all his qualities, is not a horse I could ever trust at very short odds.
Indeed, we saw him get beat at 1/4 at this track in January after he clobbered the fourth from home, while I doubt Henderson will have him 100% fit given the Tingle Creek at his beloved Sandown will be his first major target of the campaign.
With the ground looking lively enough for Edwardstone, who is rising 11-years-old, the one that tempts a bet is BOOTHILL at 9/1 as he’ll love conditions and early in the campaign looks the time to catch him.
Harry Fry’s horse has won first time out both seasons he has had over fences and there are reasons to believe a first-ever bout of wind surgery will aid his cause.
Fry doesn’t hand out wind operations willy-nilly, this being just his 25th first-time wind surgery since records began, but Boothill has been a prime candidate for the procedure given he’s worn a tongue-tie since his fifth career start.
It’s a realistic source of improvement and if he steps up on his two Ascot performances at the start of last season he looks the danger to Jonbon, even if he was put in his place by him in the Celebration Chase when last seen.
That came on the back of two season-disrupting falls, though, and he was nursed round in what looked a confidence-building exercise.
With Fry in good form and his excellent record at this meeting (5/16 at 31.25%) in mind, I’ll take a wild shot at the poster boy of the weekend with Boothill, who is surprisingly having his debut run at Cheltenham.
The Verdict: Back BOOTHILL in the 2.20 Cheltenham
We’ll drink a drink a drink to Lily…
While the Shloer Chase is not the only small-field offering during the ITV coverage the two races that bookend the card away from the terrestrial cameras offer up your typical Cheltenham big-field puzzles.
In the closing Valda Energy Novices’ Handicap Hurdle, Harry Derham’s Balhambar looks sure to go well but he’s been very well found and I’d rather back Peter Bowen’s LETTERSTON LILY at around 8/1.
I thought the Getaway filly shaped quite nicely in fourth at the Showcase Meeting here over 2m4f and while she didn’t jump great that day dropping in trip and going at a quicker pace might well help her in that department.
The worry is she’s not quick enough for this test but I like the application of cheekpieces with that in mind and Bowen has an excellent record when applying the sheepskin first time – he’s 30 wins from 141 at 21.3% including a level-stakes profit of +£59.38 to £1 at SP.
There looks to be plenty of pace on paper in this which will help and if they go half a stride too quick even better as Letterston Lily relished the hill last time.
In the opener I like Phantomofthepoints for reasons given at the bottom of this article, but he’s more than halved in price since the bookies chalked this one up and conditional jockeys' races are a bit of a punting minefield.
The Verdict: Back LETTERSTON LILY in the 4.00 Cheltenham
Preview posted at 1545 GMT on 14/11/24
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