Our form expert has five selections for Saturday's racing at Ayr and Newbury including in the Greenham Stakes.
The Verdict: Saturday April 12
0.5 pts e.w Theformismighty in 1.43 Ayr at 20/1 (1/5 1,2,3 Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
1pt win Bunting in 2.15 Ayr at 15/2 (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt win Jonquil in 2.35 Newbury at 5/1 (bet365, William Hill)
1pt win Son in 3.12 Newbury at 12/1 (Betvictor, Ladbrokes, Coral)
1pt win Inishfallen in 3.12 Newbury at 20/1 (General)
Jonquil the one in the Greenham
It’s a great time of year as the Flat and jumps worlds collide and while plenty of eyes will be on the Scottish Grand National meeting at Ayr the really good stuff is at Newbury who host a couple of interesting Classic trials.
The Group 3 Watership Down Stud Too Darn Hot Greenham Stakes looks a good renewal with Brian Meehan’s Rashabar the form horse after a fruitful juvenile campaign that yielded a Coventry Stakes win and a Lagardere second.
There’s plenty to like about him but he took a couple of runs to get going last year and Meehan underlined that the trial will get him ready for a Guineas and perhaps a French Derby further down the line, so you do wonder if he’ll be cherry ripe for this.
Similar comments apply to Chancellor with the Gosden yard historically bringing along their three-year-olds slowly and given those two are at the head of the market it looks a good race for a bet.
Rogue Allegiance looks a very nice prospect after a highly promising debut win at Newcastle, but he looks a sprinter to me and the one I want to back in the race is Andrew Balding’s JONQUIL.
Formerly with the now-retired Sir Michael Stoute, Jonquil has reportedly been working well at Kingsclere and you would think connections will have him ready to come out firing after he finished his two-year-old campaign on a bit of a downer at Doncaster.
He got worked up in the preliminaries that day and was slowly away from the gates, so it’s probably worth putting a line through that run and remembering the immense promise he showed on his debut win.
Badly hampered in the final quarter mile at Sandown, he did extremely well in the circumstances to get rolling again to secure the win from Centigrade, a horse who came out and won by over five lengths at Newbury next time out.
Indeed, that Sandown form looked strong, Balding’s Qetaifan beaten in fifth and he won two from two after that, so the trainer must’ve been delighted to get his hands on Jonquil for the season ahead.
Balding didn’t have much luck with his last Greenham runner for Juddmonte when Chaldean unshipped Frankie Dettori coming out of the stalls, but I think Jonquil will be ready to roll and he can take a big step forward first time back at three.
The Verdict: Back JONQUIL in the 2.35 Newbury
Taking two in the Spring Cup
Later on at Newbury it’s the OLBG Spring Cup Handicap which is unusually on the round course due to drainage work resulting in a maximum field of 14 runners.
A different type of race, then, and with the stalls positioned to the outside any slow starters drawn low might need a bit of luck to see daylight at crucial points for all that there’s five furlongs in the straight.
I’m taking two against the field including INISHFALLEN who runs for the aforementioned Meehan in the same Manton Thoroughbreds colours as Rashabar.
He simply looks overpriced at 20s on quite a few bits of form, most notably his Solario Stakes second at Sandown as a two-year-old and his final run at three last year, when he bounced back to form with a good second at Yarmouth off just a 1lb lower mark.
That was his second run back from being gelded and over six furlongs, but further improvement is expected now he steps up to a mile, his pedigree on his dam’s side suggesting he wants this sort of test.
I think he can improve at four, too, just like his half-brother Lough Leane who won his first five starts as a four-year-old all over a mile for David Simcock.
Another one who looks a potential improver at four is Richard Hannon’s SON, the choice of Pat Dobbs who rides Julie Wood’s horses including stablemate Classic who also goes in the same race.
Both Son and Classic are interesting after being gelded, but preference is for the former who ran really well at this track in last year’s Greenham when finishing a close-up fourth.
His form tailed off after that, but he was a bit of a keen goer and it’s with hope being gelded has straightened him out.
I reckon first time out could be the time to catch him and he’s dropped 8lb to 98 since last year’s Greenham, so he could be well treated dropping back to a mile on just his second go in a handicap.
The Verdict: Back INISHFALLEN and SON in the 3.12 Newbury
Mighty chance for Skelton at Ayr
Up at Ayr Willie Mullins dominates the Scottish National with six entries as he bids to deny Dan Skelton a first trainer’s title.
He’s got the first three in the betting for the big one and they don’t include last year’s winner Macdermott, so he’s got a vice-like grip on the race and I struggled to find a bet either with him or against him.
I do think Skelton’s THEFORMISMIGHTY is overpriced in the CPMS Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase over three miles earlier on the card, though.
Skelton has won this race a few times and I wouldn’t have this horse as the outsider of the field.
He rallied for fourth over 2m5f in a handicap hurdle at this meeting last year and he’s had a good first season over fences, winning at Southwell and going close at Wetherby off just 1lb lower two starts ago when beaten a head.
A former point winner who is related to stayers, I think he can improve now going out in trip and this looks a good spot for him on better ground at a track that should suit.
It’s a good race against quality opposition, hence the price, but he looks a threat getting weight from the principals and shouldn’t be underestimated.
The Verdict: Back THEFORMISMIGHTY in the 1.43 Ayr
Get out the Bunting in Scottish Champion
The trainer’s title will likely take a few twists and turns over the next few weeks but Mullins looks sure for another good day at Ayr and I want to back his BUNTING in the Scottish Champion Hurdle at 15/2.
Tony Bloom’s horse was way too keen in the Coral Cup when racing wide throughout and it was no surprise he was pulled up after leading at the second last.
However, he’s clearly a horse with plenty of ability, as he showed in Grade 1 company as a juvenile and on his return at Clonmel and dropping back to two miles here should suit.
The Verdict: Back BUNTING in the 2.15 Ayr
Preview posted at 1600 BST on 04/04/25
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