Our form expert takes two against the field in the Randox Grand National on Saturday while he has two bets on the Aintree undercard.
The Verdict: Saturday, April 13
GRAND NATIONAL TIPS
1pt win Panda Boy in 4.00 Aintree at 11/1 (General)
1pt win Galia Des Liteaux in 4.00 Aintree at 28/1 (General)
Rest of Saturday Aintree
1pt win Strong Leader in 3.05 Aintree at 9/1 (General)
1pt win Honor Grey in 1.20 Aintree at 14/1 (NON RUNNER)
Brassil can land second National
Another year, another Grand National, but not as we know it with several new safety measures brought in at Aintree.
The main one is the field size being cut to 34 runners from 40, but there’s a shorter distance to the first fence now, too, there will be a standing start and the time of the race has been brought forward to 4pm from 5.15pm.
For all the tweaks one of the main factors for punters to consider is the ground which is soft (heavy in places) on the National course (at the time of writing) after a wet winter and a wet spring and more showers this week.
Mild temperatures and a drying breeze have added a little confusion, but it’s probably sensible to keep this simple and factor in testing conditions for the big race, even if it’s because it’s riding tacky.
The ground makes Corach Rambler’s task even harder to go back-to-back in my opinion, more so than the extra 13lb he has to carry this year, and while I can see him running well in defeat I want to take him on.
I Am Maximus is the one they all have to beat following his Irish National, Drinmore and Bobbyjo wins, a most unlikely Fairyhouse hat-trick (in that order) if you ever saw one, but this horse has a freaky Tiger Roll look about him (they are both by the same sire, Authorized) and he looks the pick of trainer Willie Mullins’ strong squad.
However, if there’s one horse I Am Maximus and Meetingofthewaters should fear it’s Martin Brassil’s PANDA BOY and he’s worth backing at 11/1.
Brassil is a shrewd operator when it comes to the big handicaps and 18 years on from his success in this race with Numbersixvalverde he can strike again with Panda Boy, whose preparation has very much caught the eye.
He ran well in the Irish National last year when first tried over a marathon trip and it looks like Aintree has been the target since then, his runs over two miles and then over hurdles this season very much looking like attempts to protect his mark.
It has worked, as he was fifth to I Am Maximus in the Irish National from a mark of 140, ensuring a 4lb pull at the weights with that horse here, Brassil’s charge just 6lb higher than when he contested the Fairyhouse race a year ago.
This season he has improved, his first serious run of the campaign a massive one in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, where first-time cheekpieces and three miles saw him finish second to Meetingofthewaters, a horse he gets an 11lb pull at the weights with in this.
Minella Times was second in the same Leopardstown race before he won the National four years ago and Panda Boy underlined his claims with an eye-catching running-on fourth over hurdles at the Dublin Racing Festival last time.
His last two runs have hinted the National trip could unlock serious improvement in him and with the ground in his favour he has an excellent chance of sealing Aintree glory.
The Verdict: Back PANDA BOY in the Grand National (4.00 Aintree)
Skelton to fly the flag for the Brits
The other one I want to back is Dan Skelton’s GALIA DES LITEAUX who remains a fair price at 28/1 after the wet weather turned conditions in her favour.
She goes through testing ground very well, winning twice on heavy, while she stayed on strongly over 3m5f on soft ground to be second in the Classic Handicap Chase at Warwick in January, her first ever handicap start.
Responding well to the cheekpieces to push subsequent Grand National Trial runner-up My Silver Lining to three-quarters of a length, she’s a good jumper who looks likely to be well suited to a testing ground Grand National, and she’s only 4lb higher now.
By Saddler Maker, whose progeny generally stay very well, she was at her best over the longest trip she has ever tackled at Warwick and she could take off now she tries four miles and more.
She wasn’t herself for whatever reason the last time she was seen at Exeter in February and I’m happy to strike a line through that, her good record after a break further reason for encouragement now she’s back racing after a couple of months off.
The Verdict: Back GALIA DES LITEAUX in the Grand National (4.00 Aintree)
Grand National 1-2-3-4-5
- PANDA BOY
- Galia Des Liteaux
- I Am Maximus
- Corach Rambler
- Adamantly Chosen
Strong chance in Liverpool Hurdle
The undercard looks as tricky as the Grand National itself but I want to take on the market leaders in the Grade 1 JRL Group Liverpool Hurdle with Flooring Porter looking below his best this season and dual winner Sire Du Berlais now 12-years-old.
It’s not a strong division and it won’t take an awful lot of improvement from Olly Murphy’s STRONG LEADER to get involved and he’s a fair price at 9/1.
Young and unexposed, he was an excellent second to Inthepocket in the Grade 1 Top Novices’ Hurdle over two miles at this meeting last year and he’s kicked on from that this season, particularly last time on his first go at three miles in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham.
He wasn’t suited by the stop-start gallop that day, but he stayed on strongly for third in the manner of a horse that has a bright future in this sort of race.
Murphy has held him back for Aintree thanks to his good record here (also won a novice hurdle by eight lengths) and he’s dead interesting back on a flat track over a trip.
The Verdict: Back STRONG LEADER in 3.05 Aintree
Grey day in the opener (NON RUNNER)
Dan Skelton has taken his already brilliant record in prestigious handicaps to a new level this spring and after Kateira justified favouritism in a handicap here on Friday his West Balboa is being backed off the boards for the William Hill Handicap Hurdle that opens the National card.
She won the race last year and could easily go in again off just a 6lb higher mark, but odds of 11/4 are skinny enough now and if there is one to beat her it could be HONOR GREY for Ben Pauling at a much bigger price of 14/1.
The nine-year-old was off the track for 482 days until he returned at Ascot in the middle of February where he won nicely over three miles, showing a good attitude to see off Supreme Gift, Astronomic View and Loup De Maulde.
That beaten trio have all franked the form with victories subsequently, so it looks a really hot piece of form and that gives hope that Honor Grey can defy a 7lb higher mark on his second run back.
On his last race before his absence he won very nicely over the course and distance, value for much more than the three-quarter-length winning distance after being eased down, the runner-up Glimpse Of Gala highlighting the strength of that form with two wins in her next three starts.
The Verdict: Back HONOR GREY in the 1.20 Aintree
Preview posted at 1600 GMT on 12/04/24
More Grand National tips and features
- Grand National Preview Podcast
- Horse-by-horse guide
- Statistical analysis and trends
- What the pedigrees say
- Graham Cunningham: Mission possible
- 'Jumpability' ratings and insight
- Key numbers behind the National
- Simon Holt on the remarkable Kitty's Light
- Record of Gold Cup horses
- Heavy ground Grand Nationals
- National runners who love soft ground
- Grand National Quiz
- Andrew Asquith's Weekend View
- Alex Hammond Blog
- WATCH: Grand National thoughts
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