Balmoral Handicap trends: Ascot guide using key ten-year statistics

As the only non-Group race, the Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored by QIPCO) can get a little bit lost before - and occasionally during - British Champions Day. It is unquestionably after the Lord Mayor's Show, for some.

Did you know it doesn’t even have its own Wikipedia page? The November Handicap does, and so too the Cesarewitch, which may or may not have an asterisk added to this year’s bottom row come Tuesday afternoon. So why not Saturday’s high-class, back-end handicap for three-year-olds and upwards?

The Balmoral, run over the same straight mile as the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on the same day, has been won by some very classy operators since it was introduced ten years ago, at the time taking the place of the seven-furlong apprentice handicap which was run on the first three years of the Champions Day fixture.

So, with a decade of evidence to work with, what better time to shine a light on this valuable prize and look to identify the key trends that may help us find the winner this weekend.

Age

Balmoral winners have been aged between three and six (one each) across the first 10 years, with four each being aged four and five which may be the ages on which to focus when it comes to trying to nail the one who comes home in front.

A total of 30 three-year-olds have contested the race to date, with Aldaary - penalised for his victory in the Challenge Cup earlier in the same month - the only winner from the Classic generation. Several others have hit the frame.

On the other hand, every year barring 2018 when younger legs totally dominated, there has been at least one horse aged seven, eight or nine (!) ‘placed’ inside the first seven. So don’t ignore the old stagers once the extra places are on offer…

Odds

The Starting Prices of winners have ranged from 3/1 to 80/1, with seven of the 10 winners priced under 20/1.

The aforementioned 3/1 shot, Lord Glitters, is the only winning market leader, with the SP favourite finishing outside the first four in all bar two editions of the race.

Official Rating

The official BHA ratings of the winners have varied quite considerably from 96 to 109, Aldaary effectively defying the latter figure when shrugging off a 6lb penalty for his Challenge Cup success earlier in the same month in 2021.

Last year was the first time in the race’s history that horses rated in the 90s have filled the first two places, while Migration, Escobar and Chil The Kite are the highest-rated horses (113, including Escobar’s 6lb penalty) to have contested the Balmoral.

Only two horses – Richard Fahey’s Farlow and the Scott Dixon-trained Askaud – have run in the race with official marks in the 80s. They finished 15th and 18th respectively in the inaugural running in 2014.

Draw

Six of the 10 winners have been drawn in single-figure stalls, though only one of the other four could really be classed as defying a genuinely high draw, that being Escobar who overcame gate 21 in 2019. He still ended up close to the far side rail regardless.

Shelir (11), Aldaary (11) and Bronze Angel (10) all started from central berths, but also ultimately made their winning challenge over on the far side of the track.

Final prep race

All of the winners had last raced in either the September or October in the same season, with nothing as yet defying a long absence to win the Balmoral.

Sharjah Bridge and Musaddas both finished seventh in the Cambridgeshire (something of a nod to Gemma Tutty’s Look Back Smiling, although he’s since run below par at York).

Bronze Angel had also contested the same Rowley Mile cavalry charge on his previous run and the Cambridegshire horses entered this time around are Toimy Son (3rd), Bennetot (4th), Look Back Smiling (7th), Bopedro (10th), Godwinson (15th), Mythical Guest (16th), Theoryofeverything (17th) and Empirestateofmind (21st).

Going one better as a final prep race, the Challenge Cup – run over seven furlongs at the same venue – has produced four subsequent Balmoral winners. They include a Challenge winner, a second and a third so keep an eye out for Qirat and Bopedro, second and third respectively in this year’s renewal.

Other Challenge runners engaged again on Saturday are Mirsky (5th), Carrytheone (6th), Star Of Orion (7th), Akkadian Thunder (8th) and Popmaster (14th).

WATCH: Bet MGM Challenge Cup, October 5 2024

Course form

Only two of the 10 past heroes in focus here were making their Ascot debut and while only Aldaary was the sole previous course winner, another six had registered a top-five Ascot finish at some point earlier in their career.

Although unlikely to come as much of a shock, that seems quite a significant statistic so no surprise to see Qirat, Daysofourlives and Elnajmm all prominent in the antepost betting.

Other early market leaders Thunder Run, State Actor, Amphius and Treasure Time have yet to race at the track.

Trainer/Jockey

There has been a different winning rider every year so far but David O’Meara leads the way on the training front with three winners – namely Lord Glitters, Escobar and Shelir. His possible runners on Saturday are Bopedro, Padishakh, Mirsky, Theoryofeverything, Akkadian THunder and Bennetot.

William Haggas, Roger Varian and Saeed bin Suroor are the Newmarket handler to have struck gold in the race, with Jessica Harrington’s Njord the sole Irish victor.

The possible runners from Ireland this time around are Wigmore Street and Mexicali Rose for Joseph O’Brien, Booyea from the yard of Tom Gibney and State Actor representing Bill Farrell, who is a trainer and stud manager at Eyrefield House Stud.

Last but not least, there is also Swedish representation in the offing this year, with trainer Jessica Long entering the four-year-old Silver Legend, who made one start for William Haggas before being snapped up for 8,000 guineas at last October’s horses-in-training sale. He hasn't raced since August which can't be considered a positive based on trends.

The trends shortlist...

QIRAT - Sixth in the Britannia Stakes at the Royal meeting and second to Volterra in the Challenge Cup over seven furlongs here earlier in the month, Ralph Beckett's chestnut brings strong course form to the table and is obviously a leading fancy for a yard (Ralph Beckett) who can seemingly do little wrong. The statistics suggest that being a three-year-old is a small negative but he has plenty of experience and that's unlikely to put many off.

• Click here to back Qirat at 8/1 with Sky Bet

AKKADIAN THUNDER - Given he's won it three times and looks likely to be well represented again, having at least one David O'Meara runner on side at this stage looks a wise move and this four-year-old also ran in the Challenge Cup, the principal trial for the Balmoral. It was his second course appearance having filled the runner-up spot in another competitive seven-furlong handicap in early-September and he seems likely to appreciate a step back up to a mile on testing ground. He was drawn in 14 last time and - providing he gets a run as he needs half a dozen to come out - connections will be hoping for a low number after he suffered trouble in the run before staying on nicely without being unduly punished.

• Click here to back Akkadian Thunder at 25/1 with Sky Bet

TOIMY SON - Trainer David Menuisier may have slightly bigger fish to fry with top filly Tamfana taking on Charyn in the QEII but regardless of how that mission goes, he's still got plenty to look forward to in the Balmoral as the in-form Toimy Son bids to add a fifth career success. He's run three times at Ascot in the past without success but has rediscovered his form since being gelded this season and remains fairly handicapped on his best efforts following a 2lb rise for finishing third in the Cambridgeshire. We've had a couple of Balmoral winners emerge from that race and he'll be happier back over the bare mile, with the likelihood of soft ground no harm to his claims either.

• Click here to back Toimy Son with Sky Bet

Balmoral Handicap winners – 2014 to 2023

2023 – The Gatekeeper

• Age: 4
• Odds: 25/1
• Official Rating: 96
• Draw: 4
• Final prep race: 4th at Goodwood, September 25
• Course form: 2-0-0
• Trainer/Jockey: Charlie Johnston/Joe Fanning

2022 – Shelir

• Age: 6
• Odds: 80/1
• Official Rating: 102
• Draw: 11
• Final prep race: 14th in Challenge Cup, October 1
• Course form: 5-8-5-0-7-6-0
• Trainer/Jockey: David O’Meara/Jason Watson

2021 – Aldaary

• Age: 3
• Odds: 7/2
• Official Rating: 109 (including 6lb penalty)
• Draw: 11
• Final prep race: WON Challenge Cup, October 2
• Course form: 1-5-5-1
• Trainer/Jockey: William Haggas/Jim Crowley

2020 – Njord

• Age: 4
• Odds: 15/2
• Official Rating: 102
• Draw: 4
• Final prep race: 4th at Listowel, September 22
• Course form: NA
• Trainer/Jockey: Jessica Harrington/Tom Marquand

2019 – Escobar

• Age: 5
• Odds: 16/1
• Official Rating: 105
• Draw: 21
• Final prep race: 3rd in Challenge Cup, October 5
• Course form: 0000243
• Trainer/Jockey: David O’Meara/Adam Kirby

2018 – Sharja Bridge

• Age: 4
• Odds: 8/1
• Official Rating: 105
• Draw: 8
• Final prep race: 7th in Cambridgeshire, September 29
• Course form: 8
• Trainer/Jockey: Roger Varian/James Doyle

2017 – Lord Glitters

• Age: 4
• Odds: 3/1 favourite
• Official Rating: 102
• Draw: 3
• Final prep race: 2nd in Challenge Cup, October 7
• Course form: 2
• Trainer/Jockey: David O’Meara/Danny Tudhope

2016 – Yuften

• Age: 5
• Odds: 12/1
• Official Rating: 101
• Draw: 1
• Final prep race: 4th at Newmarket, September 24
• Course form: 5
• Trainer/Jockey: Roger Charlton/Andrea Atzeni

2015 – Musaddas

• Age: 5
• Odds: 7/1
• Official Rating: 96
• Draw: 4
• Final prep race: 7th in Cambridgeshire, September 26
• Course form: NA
• Trainer/Jockey: Saeed bin Suroor/Edward Greatrex

2014 – Bronze Angel

• Age: 5
• Odds: 20/1
• Official Rating: 105
• Draw: 10
• Final prep race: 21st in Cambridgeshire, September 26
• Course form: 3-4-0
• Trainer/Jockey: Marcus Tregoning/Louis Steward

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