It's always one of the big betting heats in a season so where do you start when it comes to narrowing down the field for the Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup? Well...
Last year’s principals
The first, second and fourth from last year look to be heading back to Scotland and have to be on your mind again.
Significantly came out on top in 2023, and did well to do so, being forced to wait for a gap and still having plenty to do well inside the final furlong, only to find daylight and a turn of foot to cut down Ramazan and win well.
He arrived at Ayr on the back of a fine second in the Portland at Doncaster the previous week but his preparation this time has been very different. He’s only run three times this season, looking rusty on his return in a handicap at the Craven Meeting and a little unlucky when encountering traffic problems when sixth in the Palace House a couple of weeks later.
It looked then as though he might be a regular presence in the big pattern sprints all season but wasn’t seen again until the start of this month when weak in the market and running as though needing the outing in a Listed sprint at York.
Presumably that was his springboard for the Ayr title defence and he arrives here nine pounds higher than last season.
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That means Ramazan is two pounds better off for his neck defeat last term. He has two cracking pieces of handicap form to his name this time around too, finishing second in both the Victoria Cup and Great St Wilfrid. He won the race on his side in the latter and while up three pounds for it, we know this test is ideal for him and he's clearly right at the top of his game.
But from a handicapping perspective ALBASHEER might just have the legs of both.
He’s seven pounds better off with Significantly and five with Ramazan from 2023 and was beaten only three-quarters-of-a-length. He's also three lower than when finishing fourth in the Portland at Doncaster on Saturday, finishing strongly and with petrol left in the tank.
That’s the problem with the six-year-old, he’s a hostage to fortune in his races, but he looks to hold an outstanding chance from a ratings perspective with Hollie Doyle already penned in to ride. It came as little surprise to see him promoted to favouritism at the start of race week.
Mostabshir goes clear at York
Have Gosden team found the key to Mostabshir?
Possibly. When he won a valuable novice stakes at last year’s Dante Meeting it convinced Johnny G to have a tilt at the St James’s Palace Stakes.
It’s not as though the son of Dark Angel ran badly in Berkshire either, but his form began to tail off. By the spring he was in handicap company at Kempton from a mark of 103 and now he’s in an Ayr Gold Cup racing off 100. It hardly screams of a hugely successful season.
But there are two pieces of form that make him of interest on Saturday. First up is a fourth-placed finish behind English Oak in the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot, where his run just flattened out in the closing stages.
Connections opted to go down the sprinting route in the Stewards’ Cup last time and for all he raced in an advantageous part of the track, it looked to suit the four-year-old, who was doing his best work late when again fourth behind Get In.
The stiffer test at Ayr could be ideal, he clearly handles the hurly-burly of the big-race handicap and remains unexposed in this medium. At 14/1 MOSTABSHIR is interesting.
The best outsider?
At a much bigger price, and with a less solid profile, is JEHANGEER. Kevin Ryan knows how to win an Ayr Gold Cup and you sense the race has been the plan with this fellow for some time.
He won his maiden at this track last June and went on to compete in pattern races thereafter before reappearing in a valuable three-year-old handicap at Newmarket where he shaped with abundant promise behind Woodhay Wonder and Completely Random.
Next stop was Thirsk where, thrown in against some seasoned sprinting gunslingers, he was initially taken off his feet but finished very strongly and was well on top at the finish when beating Manila Scouse.
Pause there and he’s no 50/1 chance for Saturday’s showpiece but we’re now being asked to forgive two subsequent below-par runs.
The first was when last of 11 at Goodwood but he was all-at-sea on the track that day – as he had been when met with the Dip at the Rowley Mile. The next outing was in the red-hot Constantine Handicap at York where he was slowly away but got competitive before losing a few places inside the final furlong.
That was his first experience of a race like this and it won’t be lost on him. He’s been a work in progress all season but if he sneaks in to the bottom of Saturday’s race, he’s capable of outrunning his current odds.
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