Ben Linfoot isn’t convinced by Auguste Rodin’s 2000 Guineas credentials after he eased to victory in the final Group One of the year at Doncaster.
Reference Point, High Chaparral, Motivator, Authorized, Camelot.
All won the Vertem Futurity Trophy at two and the Derby at three between 1986 and 2011, but the fab five haven’t been joined by another horse in the last decade.
Perhaps the-times-they-are-a-changin’? The Doncaster race has become more of a pointer towards the 2000 Guineas in recent years, with Saxon Warrior, Magna Grecia and Kameko all doing the Vertem Futurity-Guineas double and Aidan O’Brien trained the first two named.
The master of Ballydoyle has won 11 Futurity Trophies now, out on his own with the record, but exactly what is his latest Doncaster winner?
Is he a Saxon Warrior? He’s by the same sire, Deep Impact, at least. Is he a Camelot? Of course, O’Brien will have us believing he’s capable of an audacious Classic double.
But no, I don’t think he’s either. He’s more of a High Chaparral for me, or a Luxembourg. Maybe even a St Nicholas Abbey.
For sure, he looks capable of running a good race in the 2000 Guineas, but he beat future middle-distance horses in stamina-sapping conditions at Doncaster on Saturday and there must be a good chance he’s not going to be quick enough, on likely very different ground, on the first Saturday in May next year.
Little Big Bear, Chaldean, Noble Style, Sakheer, Nostrum, Blackbeard and Royal Scotsman all make more appeal as pacier sorts for the Guineas and it’s notable two of those mentioned are also from Ballydoyle.
Yet Auguste Rodin has been backed into joint-favourite at around 5/1 for Newmarket after his Doncaster win. It looks an overreaction.
He only got on top late on in a weak Group Two at Leopardstown last time out and on Town Moor he beat horses destined for 10 furlongs and further next year including a wayward Holloway Boy, who might’ve given him a real race had he kept straight and true on the far side. Epictetus might’ve finished closer, too, as he was impeded a little by the uncontrollable third.
That’s not to say Auguste Rodin isn’t an exciting prospect, of course he is.
By Deep Impact out of Rhododendron, a full sister to Magical, he has a middle-distance pedigree coursing through his veins.
This smooth victory was an improvement on all of his previous form, but it was the sternest test of stamina he’d ever faced. They went hard and he saw it out the best. It’s of no surprise looking at his pedigree and it would be no surprise if he thrived over 10 furlongs and further next year.
The Derby has to be high on his agenda. Although I couldn’t back him at the revised 3/1 quotes for Epsom, it’s hard to quibble with those odds. He looks the outstanding middle-distance prospect for next year from what we’ve seen of the 2022 juveniles.
He could easily become the first Derby winner to come from the Vertem Futurity since Camelot 11 years ago.
But his Guineas credentials are far less convincing.
Still, O’Brien has fashioned himself a strong hand for the first Classic next year. It’ll be four years since he last won the race when they line up at Newmarket next spring a year on from Charlie Appleby and Godolphin landing a one-two.
O’Brien will want his name back on the roll of honour, either form Auguste Rodin, Little Big Bear, Blackbeard or something else and his two-year-old colts have done themselves proud this season with the snaring of three Group Ones.
Only Kyprios, Luxembourg and Tuesday won at the top level for O’Brien in the UK and Ireland away from the juveniles, but the future looks bright.
And in Auguste Rodin he’s found an old school Vertem Futurity winner. A proper Derby prospect to furnish in the spring. I just wouldn’t be lured in by those stingy Guineas quotes.
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