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Ascot Tips Today: Best Value Bets for Thursday including the Gold Cup
The Gold Cup takes centre stage at Royal Ascot on Thursday and our value-seeking expert has four fancies on the cracking card.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Value Bet tips are now available to qualified, logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App 15 minutes later.
- Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over 215pts in profit.
Value Bet tips: Thursday June 20
1pt win Danielle in 3.45 Royal Ascot at 12/1 (Ladbrokes, BetVictor)
1pt win Vauban in 4.25 Royal Ascot at 7/1 (General)
1pt win Starlore in 5.05 Royal Ascot at 14/1 (General)
1pt win Kings Time in 6.15 Royal Ascot at 14/1 (General)
V for victory in the Gold Cup?
One of the shortest-priced favourites of the week lines up at Ascot on Thursday and – in truth – I’ve been looking forward to opposing Kyprios in the Gold Cup since his final prep run in last month’s Saval Beg at Leopardstown.
He looked to be dossing and not exactly paying full attention on the run to the line when ultimately sealing that one-length victory (he was the 1/12 market leader) and, having been beaten in both starts last year when also sent off at very short prices, we have no solid evidence to suggest he’s right back to his brilliant best from 2022.
Kyprios wiped the floor with all before him in the staying division that campaign but he’s not looked quite the same horse since picking up an injury, and I can’t get his youthful quirks - including a rotten effort in cheekpieces at Lingfield and then being withdrawn down at the start of the Queen’s Vase here in 2021 - out of my head when weighing up his second bid for Gold Cup glory.
Even in last season’s Champions Long Distance Cup, he should never really have been beaten by Trawlerman but looked to shirk the issue slightly in the closing stages, allowing the Godolphin horse and Frankie Dettori back into the picture. With an extra half-mile to travel this week, he's certainly not for me at skinny odds.
What to take him on with is the key question and, having firmly considered last year's runner-up Coltrane, progressive mare Caius Chorister and the aforementioned Trawlerman, it’s VAUBAN who looks over-priced based on his comeback effort in the Yorkshire Cup, where he had the reopposing four-year-old Gregory just behind in third.
The York winner Giavellotto is something of a course specialist, and a serious operator there to boot, so Vauban ran a really pleasing race in the circumstances, his first outing since a disappointing trip for the Melbourne Cup, and it’s not hard to envisage him improving enormously for the run.
It has been suggested, presumably on account of the limp finishing effort at Flemington, that Vauban is unlikely to fully stay the Gold Cup distance, but I’d rarely question any Willie Mullins-trained horse seeing out a trip if the trainer is willing to give it a go - just look at the way he mixes it up with his novice hurdlers for a start! And his strike-rate at the Royal meeting (10-55) over the years obviously isn’t too shabby either.
Vauban absolutely bolted up from a mark of 101 in last year’s Copper Horse Handicap, beating subsequent Ebor-winning stablemate Absurde in a red-hot edition of the race on his first visit to the track, before proving his versatility with a Group 3 win over a mile and a half on soft ground at Naas.
Colin Keane – one from one on the horse having been on board that day at Naas – takes the ride again here with Ryan Moore and William Buick (who rode him at York) otherwise engaged, and I’ll happily back the world-class Keane to get the six-year-old settled into a rhythm early on.
Don't discount Danielle
The other Group race I’m happy to bet into is the Ribblesdale Stakes, where the unbeaten Diamond Rain dominates the market. She looks potentially top class following her latest impressive win in a traditionally warm 10-furlong Listed race at Newbury, but the daughter of Shamardal showed a sparkling turn of foot first time out over the round mile here at Ascot too, and I’ve got one or two doubts she’ll be seen to best effect stepping up another two furlongs.
Siyola, third to Diamond Rain at Newbury, could be better suited by more of a test and might be able to bridge the gap, but I'll give another chance to her John and Thady Gosden-trained stable companion DANIELLE.
Having hacked up in testing conditions in a Wetherby novice event at the end of April, she coped admirably with the much quicker ground when third in the Oaks Trial at Lingfield, where I’m not sure the track really played to her strengths.
The sharp, extended mile and three furlongs on an undulating course was a different test but she stuck to her guns to be beaten a length and a half, and this testing 12 furlongs should really help the daughter of Cracksman realise her abundant potential.
She’s priced up as if she won’t cope at all with good to firm ground but I’m not convinced by that line of thinking and feel she’s over-priced given her yard’s superb record in the race (won it five times) and the fact Kieran Shoemark stays loyal.
Laying down the Lore
I’m going to swerve the King George V Stakes entirely – not through the lack of trying to find a bet I hasten to add – and skip to the day's other fiendishly difficult-looking three-year-old handicap, the Britannia Stakes.
In spite of the huge field, STARLORE does rather stand out and I’d like to think he’ll go close with a bit of luck. He didn't get anything like that when denied a clear passage in a competitive event at Goodwood last month, finishing seventh but still with loads in the tank after Pat Dobbs had to sit and suffer for a prolonged period between two and one furlong from home.
It was still a clear step forward from his comeback effort in a conditions race at Newmarket’s Craven meeting and it’s worth remembering this son of Kingman was pitched into the Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown on his second run last term.
That looked perfectly justified given he had the likes of Arabian Crown (now officially rated 112) and Devil’s Point (111) back in the field when winning on debut in the summer, and he's going to absolutely relish this first crack at a mile based on his breeding.
A mark of 98 may seriously underestimate Starlore in time and he's 4lb better off with fellow Juddmonte representative Qirat, the winner from Goodwood.
Time to shine for Harrington
In the Buckingham Palace Stakes, the well-bred English Oak is a horse I’ve admired for a while now and he looked miles ahead of the assessor when waltzing in at short odds on soft ground at Haydock last month.
He's got quicker ground to deal with here and might not be perfectly at home on it so while he may be good enough to get away with it and shrug off a 9lb rise in the ratings, the odds do suggest Ed Walker's horse has got everything in his favour and I’m not convinced that is the case.
He’s also drawn in stall 26 and could find himself in a tricky spot if the confirmed speed horses drawn in stalls one, two and three (namely Percy’s Lad, Finn’s Charm and Gorak) make life tough for the stands' side runners.
At more than twice the price, I’d rather back Jessica Harrington’s KINGS TIME who, like the favourite, is just massively unexposed compared to the majority of these rivals.
The chestnut Kings Time can’t have been the easiest to train but he’d shown plenty of potential since the tongue-tie went on early last year and duly made a fine start in the handicap ranks when scoring over this seven-furlong trip at Leopardstown in July.
He was unable to follow it up over a furlong further on an easier surface the following month but looked right back in the groove when landing a valuable pot at Cork on his comeback last month.
Clearly most effective over this distance, he had any amount in hand that day and the fourth has franked the form by winning subsequently. Connections are seemingly happy to stomach him running off an 11lb higher mark here and I can see him getting a lovely tow into it under Shane Foley from stall five.
Published at 1600 BST on 19/06/24
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