There are some competitive handicaps on Matt Brocklebank's radar as our value-seeking expert concentrates on the action from Ascot this Saturday.
- Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
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- Following all Matt's selections to recommended odds/stakes since the start of 2024 would have produced 119.70pts in profit.
Value Bet tips: Saturday November 2
1pt win Rightsotom in 3.15 Ascot at 10/1 (General)
1pt win Highstakesplayer in 3.45 Ascot at 8/1 (General)
Ascot’s chase course remains one of the sternest tests in the country and whatever wins Saturday’s Sodexo Live! Gold Cup Handicap Chase will almost certainly have impressed in the jumping department.
Chianti Classico produced one of the best rounds of the entire season en route to landing the Ultima at Cheltenham in March and if he’s in that sort of mood for his reappearance then it’s hard to imagine a mark of 152 will be enough to prevent a really bold bid.
The same stable’s Vinndication defied 151 when making a successful return in this race in 2019 and further encouragement can be drawn from the fact that Chianti Classico has got winning form around the course from 12 months ago, he seems to go very well fresh himself and certainly doesn’t mind good ground either – he’d probably prefer it this way.
So other than a short price there isn’t too much to put punters off the top weight but there is normally something lurking a bit further down the handicap in this valuable event and I’m willing to take a chance on Tom Lacey’s HIGHSTAKESPLAYER taking a step up to the plate.
Granted, he lacks a bit of experience which is always a slight concern heading into a quality handicap chase around here, but I’ve been dead impressed with his jumping since the switch to chasing and it’s worth underlining he’s only suffered defeat once over fences, that coming when clearly not right on heavy going at Newbury in March.
Connections pointed to the relatively quick turnaround from his previous Kempton win (22 days) as a possible excuse for the flop and, after almost a couple of months off, it was nice to see the horse set the record straight when successful on his final outing of the last campaign at Kempton towards the end of April.
That half-length defeat of Fidux and Karl Philippe (who won on his next start) came courtesy of a quality round of fencing and took his three-mile chase record to a perfect two from to boot. It also hammered home the point that he’s fully effective on a sound surface, while he’s now unbeaten from four chase starts on right-handed tracks which obviously bodes well for this next test at Ascot.
A 5lb rise to a mark of 135 looks perfectly manageable for the progressive eight-year-old, whose yard had a big-priced handicap chase winner (Nocte Volatus, 25/1) at Chepstow earlier in the week. A strong pace and resulting true test of stamina should also suit the selection perfectly and he rates the bet of the day.
The other really fascinating one who is worth an interest at Ascot is RIGHTSOTOM in the Lavazza Handicap Hurdle.
Formerly trained by Tom Mullins and now under the care of in-form Joe Tizzard, he’s had quite a long time off the track but was a highly promising juvenile hurdler in 2022-23 and might just be something of a handicap blot running off a BHA mark of 126 on stable debut.
Second to Zarak The Brave (now rated 152), sixth to Lossiemouth (156) in the Triumph and fourth behind Zenta (143) in the big one at Aintree the spring before last, he was last sighted gaining a richly-deserved first win over hurdles in a Cork maiden.
The horses he beat that day clearly aren’t stars but he beat them hollow after the smoothest round of hurdling you could wish to see from a young jumper, and at that stage the future looked very bright indeed.
Tizzard has recently revealed that “a slight stress fracture” kept Rightsotom out of action for the entirety of last season but also that he’s been working well from a very early stage through the autumn and, personally, I’m not sure we’ll get many chances to back him in a handicap from a mark quite so low.
With the stable going nicely and prevailing ground in his favour, I’m seriously drawn to this horse at double-figure odds and simply have to include him in the staking plan.
Diego may be the one to score for Ballydoyle
Up at Wetherby, Grey Dawning missing out due to the drying going takes something (rather a lot, sadly) away from the feature bet365 Charlie Hall Chase, while I’m not convinced anything is dramatically out of line with market expectations in the bet365 Hurdle either given the Champion Hurdle third Luccia bosses the betting as odds-on favourite.
The closest I came to a bet on the card was 102-rated bottom weight V Twelve in the Never Ordinary At bet365 Handicap Hurdle but there must be a small chance Dan Skelton's market leader Williethebuilder skips this on account of the ground too which would result in a considerable Rule 4.
V Twelve, a never-nearer third on his return to hurdles at Carlisle a fortnight ago, will surely resort to more prominent tactics back here, where he won off just 5lb lower over course and distance in March.
The ground was soft that day but he’s pretty adaptable and possesses a fair turn of foot for such a big horse. He’s held his form quite well since winning over a mile and three furlongs on the Flat at Hamilton in the summer and William Maggs claiming 5lb in the saddle is no bad thing either, but there’s just not quite enough meat on the bones in terms of price so it’s another one to watch with interest.
Speaking of which, it was fascinating to read the Daily Racing Form's local correspondent Steve Andersen state that he felt City Of Troy's Breeders' Cup Classic odds looked "bonkers low with the English bookmakers" and I'd be inclined to agree.
Nobody really knows how this top-class turf horse will cope in the cut-and-thrust of a Classic but he'll be physically dwarfed by some of his rivals on Saturday and the conditions at Del Mar are obviously going to be a world away from those encountered when posting his career best in the Juddmonte International at York.
I can't help but look back at him scrambling in from Al Riffa in a soft-ground Coral-Eclipse at Sandown earlier in the year and fear the worst.
Let's hope he can overcome it all but I couldn't put anyone off Aidan O'Brien stablemate Diego Velazquez in the FanDuel Breeders' Cup Mile an hour or so later on Saturday evening UK time.
He's got a good draw in stall four and, on a suitably quick turf course, I reckon he'll be a very hard horse to pass if (when?) Ryan Moore gets the fractions right out in front.
The general 8/1 about him beating Notable Speech and Porta Fortuna looks perfectly fair without completely knocking me off the chair.
Published at 1600 GMT on 01/11/24
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