Day four of the Royal meeting at Ascot and our expert has his eye on some big-priced runners in the competitive handicaps.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced over 130pts profit, while he's over 38pts up for the year.
Value Bet tips: Friday, June 23
1.5pts e.w. HMS President in 3.40 Royal Ascot at 22/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Karsavina in 5.00 Royal Ascot at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt win Thunder Moor in 6.10 Royal Ascot at 33/1 (General)
Already advised
Happy with long-range position on Lezoo
After a particularly bookmaker-friendly first three days of the Royal meeting, punters will be hopeful of hitting back on Friday with some very short-priced favourites in the three main Group races on the card.
Little Big Bear in the Commonwealth Cup, Tahiyra the Coronation Stakes and Derby runner-up King Of Steel in the King Edwards VII all have plenty in hand over their rivals on form and the only good news for the layers is that Frankie Dettori doesn’t ride a single one of them.
Highly impressive first-time-out Doncaster winner Carla’s Way could really set the tone for the day if delivering the goods in the opening Group 3 Albany Stakes, and other than Marbaan in the Commonwealth Cup, I can’t really get close to recommending a bet in any of the level-weights contests.
Marbaan is vaguely tempting from an each-way perspective as I thought he looked on the cusp of reaching his peak when narrowly denied by the far more experienced five-year-old Run To Freedom in a Listed race at Salisbury last time out.
Last year’s Vintage winner had also shaped quite well when fourth in the trial for this race over course and distance earlier in May, an event that has already produced Tuesday’s King’s Stand winner in third home Bradsell, but the bottom line is that I’ve got Dettori’s mount Lezoo onside at 16/1 from a couple of weeks ago and, hand on heart, expect Little Big Bear to prove hard to beat after he’s since come out and romped home in the Sandy Lane.
So I’ll focus on the handicaps which seem far more likely to throw up a big-priced winner anyway and I’ll tackle them chronologically.
Another Royal winner for in-form King?
The Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes has generally been dominated by well-handicapped four-year-olds over the years and, unsurprisingly, it’s a couple of horses that slot into that bracket who dominate the betting this time.
Charlie Appleby’s Al Nafir and the Andrew Balding-trained Teumessias Fox still have significant upside despite having to race off 10lb and 7lb higher marks respectively than when winning on their most recent starts.
The Godolphin horse has been kept on the back-burner so far this season, having been gelded over the winter, and it’s obviously significant that Appleby is pitching him in here first time back.
Their claims are obvious but for those on the lookout for one at juicier price, HMS PRESIDENT is well worth considering – I’d make him the each-way bet of the week so far and will be backing him accordingly.
He’s not a four-year-old, granted, and he’s not one who looks to be miles ahead of his mark on the face of it either, but he does bring plenty of experience to the table and it’s hard to deny the in-form Alan King looks to have extracted even more improvement from the six-year-old after he switched from Eve Johnson Houghton’s during the off-season.
First up he finished a fine second to the reopposing Max Mayhem, who is slightly worse off with HMS President on these terms, in the Rosebery Stakes (1m3f) at Kempton, before winning what’s turned out to be a red-hot handicap over a mile and three-quarters at Newmarket last time.
Five individual winners have emerged from that contest since, which makes the selection’s subsequent 3lb rise look more than manageable, and while the ground was soft on that occasion, he’s won on all types of going now including good to firm over this 1m4f trip at Goodwood last summer.
A strong pace to chase down is crucial for HMS President as he looks all but guaranteed to get that here, while it’s worth recalling that King (and the same owner Henry Ponsonby) won this race with a seemingly exposed older horse in Scarlet Dragon just three years ago.
I reckon there’s enough to merit a decent bet at the general 25/1 on offer.
Change of conditions to spark major improvement
The Sandringham Stakes looks a real minefield and it’s sorely tempting to stick rigidly to the view that I held heading into the 1000 Guineas and back long-range Classic fancy Dream Of Love, who runs here off 103 under top weight on her handicap debut.
I’ll have to swallow that bitter pill if she does pop up, though, as I was disappointed with her again when unable to compete in the German Guineas last time, and there’s only a certain number of chances a horse like her can get. Especially when she’s not a huge price and there are so many others with fascinating profiles.
The one I won’t be letting go unbacked is Clive Cox’s KARSAVINA, who I’m convinced could find another gear entirely now faced with quick ground for the first time in her life.
Cox was at pains to stress we won’t have seen the best of her despite making a winning debut on soft ground over seven furlongs on her sole start at two, and she shaped well on her seasonal return in the Nell Gwyn (good to soft), finishing fourth behind Mammas Girl.
Drawn low and battling even more gruelling underfoot conditions, Karsavina was never a factor in the Guineas (50/1) but she’s had a good long break since then and will have been freshened up for the summer.
Her revised mark of 99 looks perfectly reasonable based on the fact she split fillies now rated 102 and 108 in the Nell Gwyn, while her classy half-brother Positive ran quite well in Wednesday’s Hunt Cup off 106, so perhaps she’ll be happy on the track too - her sire Ulysses has already produced a big-priced Royal Ascot winner courtesy of Holloway Boy in last year’s Chesham so that offers some more hope.
Moor claims not as bleak as market suggests
George Boughey runs three in the Palace Of Holyrood House Stakes including the well-fancied Conquistador, who keeps on improving with racing, but in another wide-open contest, it's a newcomer to the Boughey yard in THUNDER MOOR who I'd rather back at the odds.
He must have had several opportunities to take to the track before now and maybe there's been a physical hold-up, but his trainer is already proving himself to be seriously astute when it comes to protecting a mark when he thinks he’s got one the right side of the assessor, and Thunder Moor is running from a career-low 90, minus Billy Loughnane’s 3lb claim, having shown genuine sparks of talent during his time with Kevin Ryan as a juvenile.
Well punted when making an ultimately disappointing debut at Musselburgh last April, he then won nicely in a York novice before losing his way in Group and Listed company, though in fairness to the horse he was hardly disgraced in the Norfolk Stakes and showed blistering speed early on in the Molecomb at Goodwood the following month.
He changed hands for 50,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn (h-i-t) sale and I reckon the market may be underestimating his potential starting out in a fresh environment as a recently gelded three-year-old.
Boughey has had five winners on stable debut after being gelded (from 21 at 23.81%) and while it’s hard to have a strong view in a race like this, Thunder Moor looks a reasonable one for a small win-only dart.
Click here for the full Value Bet record
Published at 1500 BST on 22/06/23
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