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Ascot tips: Antepost preview and best bets for QIPCO British Champions Day 2023
QIPCO British Champions Day is next on the agenda as our expert looks to unearth the long-range value for Ascot.
- The Antepost Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in advance of select feature races in the UK, Ireland and overseas.
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Antepost Value Bet tips: QIPCO British Champions Day
2pts win Arrest in British Champions Long Distance Cup at 10/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - 9/1 general
1pt win Spycatcher in British Champions Sprint Stakes at 12/1 (bet365, William Hill, Unibet)
0.5pts win Mitbaahy in British Champions Sprint Stakes at 25/1 (William Hill) – 20/1 general
1pt win Alflaila in QIPCO Champion Stakes at 12/1 (General)
Back Burrows' rising star at 12/1
QIPCO British Champions Day isn’t always a great card for a long-range bet but the more I delved into the entries and potential running plans this time around, the more I liked.
Firstly, we’ve obviously got two massive meetings coming up which will have a major impact on the markets, namely Irish Champions Weekend (September 9-10) before two stellar days at ParisLongchamp for the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (September 30-October 1).
With French star Ace Impact, who is 5/1 for the QIPCO Champion Stakes, stepping up to 12 furlongs for the first time in the Arc, he's clearly not going to have an easy prep if Ascot is even in connections' minds. The unbeaten Prix du Jockey Club winner is fresh enough having been given a break during July but it would be a remarkable double to actually pull off at the tail-end of a three-year-old campaign which began on April 2 at Bordeaux Le Bouscat.
With that in mind, I’d rate him an opposable favourite for this contest, while the second in with a lot of firms is currently Juddmonte International hero Mostahdaf, who must have decent ground by all accounts.
He too skips the Irish Champion Stakes but it should still be a cracker as, on top of whatever Aidan O’Brien has to throw at the race which at the moment seems like Auguste Rodin and Luxembourg leading the home defence, we also have the Roger Varian-trained King Of Steel, who has run two seriously eyecatching races in Group 1 company at Epsom and Ascot.
Second only to Auguste Rodin on his belated seasonal debut in the Derby (withdrawn at the start of the Dante), he subsequently dotted up in the King Edward VII before shaping very much like a drop back in trip was what’s required when third to Hukum in the King George last time (replay below).
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King Of Steel went to the top of my Champion Stakes wish-list in the immediate aftermath of Ascot but I’m more than a little concerned that connections will be lured into supplementing for the Arc - win, lose or draw at Leopardstown next weekend.
It’s clear the Amo Racing operation are keen to be seen dining at the top table if at all possible and they wouldn't be tilting at windmills travelling for the Arc with this horse, but at the same time it’s not difficult to envisage the son of Wootton Bassett effectively leaving his Champions Day effort out in the Bois de Boulogne mud.
I'll resist the 8/1 being dangled about King Of Steel with a couple of prominent firms (as short as 9/2 with Sky Bet) and focus on the Owen Burrows-trained ALFLAILA, who is going to be supplemented for the Irish Champion Stakes and just looks to be ghosting into these top 10-furlong autumn races a little under the radar.
Beaten in a York nursery at the Ebor Festival two years ago and ultimately winning just once from six runs as a juvenile, his real progress came when stepped up to nine and 10 furlongs as a three-year-old last season and, as is often the case with these beautifully-bred Shadwell horses, he’s seemingly continued to get better with age.
Alflaila ended up winning the Strensall Stakes at the 2022 Ebor meeting before signing off for the year with an even more impressive performance in another Group 3 race at Newmarket in early-October.
He’s only raced the once this time around but beat last year’s close-up Champion Stakes third My Prospero with a bit to spare on his return in the Group 2 Sky Bet York Stakes (replay below) in July and, while obviously very effective when fresh, he’s entitled to have made a bit more physical progress with that outing now behind him.
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I love the fact Burrows is willing to send him to Ireland rather than sit tight and play it safe in something like the Qatar Prix Dollar, a Group 2 race over a distance just shy of 10 furlongs on Arc weekend.
Burrows and Shadwell won that Longchamp race with Anmaat last autumn and two years ago William Haggas used it as a stepping-stone for Dubai Honour, who went on to be beaten narrowly by Sealiway in the Champion Stakes, but Alflaila must be showing all the right signs after York.
The obvious question mark hanging over Alflaila would be the prospect of very testing ground come Ascot as he’s never officially raced on anything worse than good. However, Timeform have him twice racing on good to soft including when winning a Listed race at Pontefract and, given his pedigree and the fact he tends to take a bit of stoking up before hitting top gear anyway, I’m interested to see what he can do on softer ground.
Alflaila looks more likely to be 'risked' in typical Champions Day conditions than Mostahdaf anyway and he certainly doesn’t look out of place with a top-class entries on the back of his latest triumph. He’s got some winning form at Ascot to boot so I'm more than happy to include him in the staking plan.
One-time Derby fancy a Cup cracker in the making
The staying division remains fairly open despite Coltrane’s convincing defeat of Gold Cup winner Courage Mon Ami in the Lonsdale Cup at York. That pair now occupy the top two spots in the betting for the British Champions Long Distance Cup but they’ve both shown a preference for quick ground so there’s clearly scope to get something on side at a bigger price in the hope of some proper October weather.
We wait with bated breath on the return of last year’s ‘Cup King’ Kyprios (next weekend) following injury and if he’s back to something like his best in the Irish St Leger then he’d be the one they all have to beat should Aidan O’Brien look to run him back at Ascot, where he landed the 2022 Gold Cup.
There are no ground fears for him as he won by daylight in the Prix du Cadran in tough conditions when last in action last October and the current 6/1 seems perfectly fair for those willing to take a chance on him resuming where he left off.
At twice the price, however, I’m drawn to Courage Mon Ami’s John and Thady Gosden stablemate ARREST, a one-time fancy for the Derby (including on these pages).
The wide-margin Chester Vase winner put significantly lesser Derby and Royal Ascot performances behind him when returned to easier ground and calmer waters in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury last time out and there’s a very good chance he’ll now really kick on into the autumn.
Connections are sounding reasonably optimistic about a potential St Leger bid but with two more stable companions – Gregory and Middle Earth – also seemingly firmly in the mix for Doncaster I wonder if Arrest could be more likely to take up his entry in the Qatar Prix Chaudenay over Arc weekend instead.
That Group 2 over the thick end of two miles (1m7f) has been won by British raiders the last two years in Manobo and Al Qareem, and the Gosdens might wish to keep some of their three-year-old stayers apart for the time being.
Victory in France would surely see Arrest return to Group 1 level before the season’s out and this is his only Champions Day entry which makes perfect sense given how he’s been shaping in his races over shorter trips this term.
He’d be one of the classiest three-year-olds to have run in it in recent years and by that point he may just be ready to announce himself as a star stayer in the making for 2024.
Take two improvers in the Sprint
The British Champions Sprint is the other race I'm willing to dip my toe in this far out and, having recently put up SPYCATCHER for the Betfair Sprint Cup, I'm keen to have him on side here too.
It's not that I've any serious doubts about him taking up the Haydock entry, but next week's forecast is for plenty of sunshine and, with all due respect, you never can be sure what state the ground is going to be there anyway. If he were to skip the Sprint Cup I'd be a bit put out if he went and won this without carrying my cash.
Karl Burke has obviously found the key to Spycatcher this year, following an extended spell on the sidelines after last season's Chipchase, and I loved how he backed up this Group 3 win in France with an agonising defeat back at Deauville last month.
That was his first taste of Group 1 action, just missing out in a photo-finish having hit the front soon enough, and I genuinely think the best could still be yet to come from the five-year-old. If he goes and does the business in the Sprint Cup then we'll have the value for Ascot too.
I toyed with MITBAAHY in the Haydock race too but will add him to the staking plan here instead as he's been pretty well held in two previous Haydock runs whereas I thought he ran a very encouraging race on this track in this year's King's Stand.
He stayed on to be eighth behind out-and-out speedsters Bradsell and Highfield Princess that day and then found himself drawn on the wrong part of the track when only beating a couple of rivals home at Newbury.
Mitbaahy has subsequently taken full advantage of a drop to Listed level with a taking victory over six furlongs on soft ground at Chester and the third home that day, Ehraz, ran a cracker when third in the big six-furlong handicap from a mark of 105 at York last week.
There's more to come from Mitbaahy and proving himself on testing ground obviously opens up more doors for connections. I'd be surprised if he wasn't aimed at Ascot and think he can outrun his current odds.
First published on Sporting Life Plus at 1700 BST on 02/09/23
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