Our man at the track sets the scene ahead of this afternoon's Gold Cup at Royal Ascot.
There’s only one question you really need to answer ahead of Thursday’s Gold Cup. Is Kyprios the same horse he was in 2022?
If he is, he wins. Simples.
He’s seven pounds clear on Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings going into the race but the performances that earned that meaty master rating were all recorded during a golden, four-race Group One-winning run two years ago.
He hit 133 when taking this very race from Mojo Star and Stradivarius, 136 in the Goodwood Cup and Irish Leger and 138 in the Prix Du Cadran, a Paris afternoon when he produced a performance that’s still barely believable when you watch it back.
As Stradivarius exited stage left, he looked ready to hold onto the staying crown for a few seasons.
But last year Kyprios suffered a setback, an issue with a joint that took a while to settle down. He missed the defence of his Ascot crown and when he did reappear, he was beaten at 4/6 in the Irish Leger and 11/10 in the QIPCO Long Distance Cup.
The latter is probably one of the few races Ryan Moore would love another crack at, Aidan O’Brien’s charge making a huge move to sweep past the trailblazing Trawlerman turning for home but was unable to sustain the charge and subsequently fell victim to that reopposing rival’s rally inside the final furlong.
This season the waters have been calmer. As in 2022 he’s taken in the Vintage Crop and Saval Beg - and won both. He’s shown a tendency to do little in front against inferior rivals and in winning only had to hit 126 and 124 performance figures.
I say only – he didn’t really have the opportunity to go any higher given the races he ran in – but he’ll need to on Thursday.
John Gosden has a great record in this race and, along with son Thady, throws Trawlerman in for his reappearance and the progressive Gregory who shapes as though he’ll devour this two-and-a-half mile trip.
Vauban represents Willie Mullins, a horse on his own rebuilding mission after blowing out in the Melbourne Cup. That was a performance that has many questioning whether he’ll truly stay the marathon trip at Ascot, after all he didn’t exactly look short of speed when winning a Group Three over a mile-and-a-half at Naas in August.
But this is Mullins we’re talking about, they won’t be guessing, and on Tuesday his son and assistant Patrick brushed aside worries on that score by pointing out the way the horse settles in his races on the Flat will be a huge help.
Rich Ricci’s racing manager Joe Chambers was equally as confident that prospect of the fuel tank emptying was of no concern.
With William Buick claimed for Trawlerman and Ryan Moore Kyprios, Colin Keane takes over in the saddle. He has a plum ride. And maybe like the rest of us his eyes will be on Moore and the favourite through the race. A single shot at passing the market leader. Will he want that rival to commit first and then take aim? Possibly.
But if Kyprios is back to his best, ready to return to a mid-130 display then he'll hand O’Brien a record-breaking ninth victory in the race. And for me there’s been enough in those first two runs back, and even the defeat to Trawlerman in the autumn mud, to suggest the king is about to reclaim the throne.
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