Ascot racing tips: Best value bets for Saturday May 13 including Victoria Cup

• The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
• Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced over 120pts profit.
• So far this year he's +28.64pts having tipped winners Aucunrisque at 14/1, Maskada at 25/1, Stage Star at 11/1, Tiger Jet at 16/1, Rebel Territory at 7/1, Rainbow Fire at 6/1, Gloire D’athon at 14/1 and Metier at 6/1.

Value Bet tips: Saturday, May 13

1pt e.w. Rhythmic Intent in 1.30 Ascot at 14/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)

1pt win Beccara Rose in 2.05 Ascot at 11/1 (General)

1pt e.w. Accidental Agent in 2.40 Ascot at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Class will out in Cup cracker

After a typically trappy week at Chester which often feels a bit like an exercise in damage limitation from a punting perspective, it’s rather refreshing to get stuck into Saturday’s Peroni Nastro Azzurri Victoria Cup, a brilliantly complex handicap run over seven furlongs of the straight course at Ascot.

Having been obsessing over low draws on the tight circuit in Cheshire through Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, punters are now faced with the prospect of the higher numbers potentially holding sway, the last 10 Victoria Cups featuring winners who emerged from stalls 27, 24, 10, 13, 18, 29, 23, 25, 13 and 2.

It’s very tempting to try and ignore the noise around any proposed draw bias, and simply look to identify the best-handicapped and most in-form runners, but there’s really no escaping the fact that at this time of year – no matter the ground – you want to be making your challenge more towards the stands’ side rail here.

That’s going to make things tricky for one of the market leaders Baradar, as well as recent Newmarket winner Rebel Territory who otherwise has an awful lot going for him as I reckon a 2lb rise underestimates his superiority over the reopposing Vafortino (winner of this race last year) at the Craven meeting.

Baradar’s stablemate Totally Charming, drawn more centrally in 13, is a major threat to all dropping back to a stiff seven furlongs on soft going as he looked the likely winner passing the furlong marker in the Irish Lincolnshire towards the end of March, before weakening into seventh close home.

He’s also able to run off a 3lb lower mark back on home soil, with Billy Loughnane taking off an extra 3lb, so his claims are there for all to see – including the bookmakers.

At much bigger prices, I was all for recommending John Quinn’s formerly Group-class Safe Voyage on the back of a more encouraging run at Thirsk last weekend, but the initial quotes of 20/1 were long gone by the time of publication and it’s another veteran who appeals more at the current prices on offer, namely ACCIDENTAL AGENT.

Now, there are obviously a handful of real track specialists in this line-up but Accidental has just about seen it all at this famous venue, from winning handicaps to Group 1s, some unlucky defeats along the way, and that day he simply refused to take part as the stalls opened for the 2019 Queen Anne.

A 14/1 shot that day having sprung a 33/1 surprise in the Royal Ascot feature the previous summer, he’s yet to get his head in front from 13 subsequent Ascot outings, but he was second to Vafortino in this race last year, having made a winning return at Newmarket the previous month, and he’s dropped 6lb in the weights over the past 12 months which gives the nine-year-old a genuine shot at rolling back the years. Now rated 103, his last three handicap victories have all come off 104.

That trio of wins have been achieved on good to firm, good and good to soft, so very deep conditions would be the one major question mark against him this weekend, but Eve Johnson Houghton’s horse has also run perfectly well on soft ground in the past and it could be that he’ll be a little more versatile in that regard as he grows older.

His draw in 20, in between the likes of prominent racers Kingdom Come (18), Tylos (19) and Biggles, who is closest to the stands’ side in 23, looks tailormade and with extra places on offer Accidental Agent is hard to resist at 20/1 and bigger.

Statement of Intent in opening race

Two others stand out on the Ascot card and I’ll tackle them chronologically – starting with RHYTHMIC INTENT in the Peroni Nastro Azzurro Handicap.

This is the first time Stuart Williams’ horse has run in a 0-95 handicap since he comfortably landed a 0-90 at Newbury in August 2020 so he’s immediately got a bit of a class edge over most of the field and he’s definitely a horse who appreciates some juice in the ground, two of his four career successes coming on soft.

It seems a while ago now that he last got his head in front (September 2021 to be a bit more precise), but in fairness he missed the thick end of a year after what appeared to be quite a promising run at Newmarket last April.

Just behind Contact and Tritonic on that occasion, the pair of them went on to win their next starts and Rhythmic Intent now runs off 3lb lower having made a low-key reappearance at Epsom just over a fortnight ago.

I don’t think a huge amount was expected there as the 10 furlong trip was short of his optimum and he went off 25/1, but it was far from a lifeless effort and I reckon he’ll leave it well behind at some stage this year.

Whether that’s today is the matter at hand and I’m happy to roll the dice as he’ll love the step back up to a mile and a half, and I’m enthused by the booking of Danny Tudhope whose 19 previous rides for the yard have produced three winners, two seconds and four thirds. I'm backing him each-way at 14s or bigger.

Rose to relish drop back in trip

The William Haggas-trained Timeless Melody has been given a nice-looking mark and could ultimately be different gravy in the Peroni Nastro Azzuro EBF Fillies’ Handicap, but I’ll take her on with BECCARA ROSE.

She’s got some significant strides to make as she’s 2lb out of the weights on this handicap debut which puts her on the back foot slightly, but I’m convinced we’ve yet to see anything like the best of this giant filly.

She shaped miles better than the finishing position on her seasonal comeback in a Newbury maiden over 10 furlongs last month, after Danny Tudhope went off far too quickly in the bad ground and paid for it in the final three furlongs.

She’d previously made nice progress from her first to second start at the end of last year, finishing nicely clear of the rest when third in a warm fillies’ novice event at Kempton (replay below).

The winner, Marksman Queen, has since defied a penalty by going in again at Southwell, while the fifth home, Strong Impact, was second to Oaks fancy Infinite Cosmos on her second start at Newmarket’s Guineas meeting.

Beccara Rose has an initial mark of just 79 so while having to technically race off 81 this weekend, she does look decidedly well treated if making the anticipated progress back down in trip.

She’s a daughter of the great Sea The Stars whose progeny have a healthy strike-rate on soft ground at Ascot (8-34 at 23.5%) and I’m just hoping Kieran O’Neill takes a lead and looks for some cover on the straight mile here which shouldn’t be a problem with Mountain Song and Julia Augusta both likely to go forward.

No bets on all-weather

They're 'off the turf' at Lingfield and the racecourse, along with the BHA, is to be commended for getting their often-informative meeting switched over to the Polytrack, but I won't be getting sucked into having a bet.

The closest I came was the Charlie Johnston-trained Ferrari Queen in the Oaks Trial as she's bred for a trip this season, will no doubt be sent out to do her stuff from the outset and seems unlikely to be short of a gallop.

She's also got winning all-weather form in the book but she's not exactly a wild price and doesn't make the Saturday staking plan.

Click here for the full Value Bet record

First published at 1500 BST on 12/05/23

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