Fast Results
Scores
Ascot, Kempton and Haydock Tips: Best Value Bets for ITV Racing Saturday September 7
Matt Brocklebank's excellent August (+32.6pts) made it seven profitable months for the year so far - don't miss his first Value Bet preview of September.
- Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Value Bet tips are initially available to logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App 15 minutes later.
- Following all Matt's selections to recommended odds/stakes since the start of 2024 would have produced 155.70pts in profit (235pts staked, ROI of 66.25%).
Value Bet tips: Saturday September 7
1pt win Too Bossy For Us in 1.50 Haydock at 14/1 (General)
1pt win Imperial Sovereign in 2.10 Ascot at 25/1 (BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral)
1pt win Dancing In Paris in 2.25 Haydock at 10/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair, William Hill)
1pt win Vultar in 3.15 Kempton at 16/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Shouldvebeenaring in 3.35 Haydock at 12/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
Shouldvebeena winner?
Mill Stream, Mitbaahy, Khaadem, Inisherin, Asfoora, Big Evs, Bradsell – it’s patently clear there isn’t a standout superstar on the sprint scene in Britain and Ireland at the moment and I’m not convinced one is about to pop up in Saturday’s Betfair Sprint Cup.
Unexposed three-year-olds Elite Status and Bucanero Fuerte certainly bring plenty of intrigue to the table and Karl Burke’s horse has looked particularly promising at times, but he’s also had a few physical problems and was capable of throwing in the odd stinker last year which doesn’t make him an attractive betting proposition.
Bucanero Fuerte has also suffered a setback earlier this year and we’re not yet sure quite how good he could be, which makes him a little more tempting at double-figure odds, but he’s been out since May and faces a load of hard-fit rivals for whom this is their most obvious chance of landing on a Group 1.
SHOULDVEBEENARING fits into that category perfectly as he’s outrun expectations on both previous visits to Haydock Park, splitting Little Big Bear and Bradsell in last year’s Sandy Lane Stakes and finding only Regional a neck too good when 50/1 for this event 12 months ago.
Like most in this division at present, he’s had a fairly mixed time of things since but, when taken in isolation, those two pieces of course form give him a massive chance of playing a leading role this weekend. And it’s not like he’s been out of sorts recently – the opposite is in fact true as he’s looked better than ever at points this term, missing out to subsequent July Cup hero Mill Stream in a head-bob for the Duke of York, and winning a Group 3 race over six furlongs on good to soft going at Deauville two starts ago.
Last time out was a painful one for me personally as Shouldvebeenaring finished in front of 4/7 favourite Audience, but still managed only third overall behind 33/1 outsider Breege and 22/1 shot Vafortino in the Sky Bet City Of York.
Anything that raced out towards the middle of the track during Ebor week probably wants their form marking up considerably, so Richard Hannon's representative did quite well in the circumstances, especially as his stamina was probably a little bit stretched over the seven furlongs that day.
Saturday's race has reportedly been his target all year - which comes as no shock whatsoever - and, while not quite as flashy as some in the field, he looks a solid each-way option in the day's feature.
Laying down the law
There are four more from the north west venue on ITV before the big one and I make TOO BOSSY FOR US a bet in the Betfair Plays Different Handicap over a mile three-quarters.
He’s a much bigger price than he was for the Sky Bet Melrose after finishing a well-beaten eighth that day, but I just don't think he was anywhere near his best at York and wouldn’t be surprised to see him back on song in the first-time cheekpieces here.
Trainer Kevin Philippart De Foy has a good record with that variation of headgear (he's 7-32 at almost 22% when applying cheekpieces for the first time) and this Golden Horn colt might just appreciate a return to slightly easier ground having not really performed in his one start on good to firm as a two-year-old at Newmarket last September either.
A 10-furlong winner off a mark of 76 at Ascot back in May, he remains 13lb higher in the weights but his placed form behind Align The Stars at both Thirsk and over this course and distance in July’s bet365 Handicap reads very well (latter effort franked on a number of levels) and I think he’s worth another chance to prove the tepid Melrose display all wrong.
Paris keeps pulling out more
The other race to lure me in at Haydock is the Betfair Exchange Old Borough Cup Handicap, in which Ebor third and fourth, Oneforthegutter and Epic Poet, are both obviously quite well fancied.
The trouble with that pair is that they haven’t exactly got brilliant strike-rates and Knightswood has been a frustrating sort this year too, so I can happily look beyond the obvious in this race.
Oneforthegutter’s trainer Ian Williams also runs DANCING IN PARIS and I just can’t let him go unbacked at current odds, even after a 7lb rise in the weights for his latest victory at Southwell.
That Racing League win was the third time he’s got his head in front in the calendar year which is pretty impressive in itself, but all the more meritorious given he’s been on the go since returning to action at Kempton in the middle of March.
The four-year-old basically looks to have gone from strength to strength, thriving on a busy schedule, and he’s not run a bad race since stepping up from a mile, two of his wins at 12 furlongs and one over this weekend’s trip of a mile and three-quarters - the most recent Ascot success came at the expense of Tactician and Manxman, who both won on their next starts.
Dancing In Paris was probably given a bit too much to do by Alberto Sanna at the Shergar Cup meeting but scored with loads in hand last time, beating the progressive 6/4 favourite Who’s Glen by almost two lengths.
This horse has so much going for him, including a course victory in an early-season mile handicap last year, I’m struggling to see the negatives and would have him much shorter in the market with a good draw (stall four) and David Egan in for the ride.
Chance Sovereign back in trip
Down at Ascot, I couldn't get beyond Rebel Territory in the opening bet365 Handicap but his odds aren’t anything to write home about and instead I’ll put up IMPERIAL SOVEREIGN at a massive price.
There are, admittedly, some major question marks over this horse, who hasn’t yet delivered on his promising novice form but he was set stiff tasks in the Lingfield Derby Trial and the Queen’s Vase earlier in the year.
Gelded after Royal Ascot, he returned from a couple of months away in the Melrose at York last month and looked like playing a part in the finish three furlongs from home before weakening to finish ninth.
He’ll have to improve on that run having been eased just the 1lb to a mark of 97, but it showed there was still plenty for trainer Karl Burke to work with and I’m going to chance him loving the softer conditions down south.
Being a son of Frankel, out of a Dubawi mare, I’m a little surprised he’s yet to be tried on ground with some ease in it but perhaps that’s just the way things have fallen this summer and there are loads of soft-ground winners in his pedigree.
In fact, the dam (Imperial Charm) is from that Reem Three family which has served Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum so well over the years, producing the likes of Triple Time, Cape Byron and Ostilio, who all won at Ascot during their racing days.
Imperial Sovereign returning to this venue looks a wise move then and dropping back to a mile and a half is another positive based on the York performance.
Cox bringing one back to the boil
I’ve always had it in my head that favourite-backers must make a killing on William Haggas’ three-year-olds around this time of the year every season as he's a bit of a dab hand in the autumnal handicaps in particular, but it’s not the case in reality.
Well, broadly speaking it isn’t anyway as backing all of his three-year-olds across the board in the months of September and October over the past 10 years would have been a loss-making enterprise (-110.37 to a level stake), and I’m comfortable taking on his lightly-raced Kilt in Kempton's Unibet London Mile Series Final Handicap.
Kilt made an encouraging handicap debut when second at Haydock last month, his first run since being gelded, and is likely to go on improving but he’s up 5lb for being beaten which isn’t a great start, looks like he might need a bit further and was a well-held third (of four) on his only previous outing on the all-weather last December.
He meets some battle-hardened Polytrack performers in this race, including top-weight Talis Evolvere who shouldn’t be overlooked, but VULTAR is the horse who interests me most.
Trained by Clive Cox, whose horses tend to offer a lot more value regardless and certainly compared to Haggas’ when it comes to three-year-olds in the months of September and October over the past decade (P/L +67.35), Vultar has a strong all-weather profile and some excellent course form at Kempton.
His figures at this track to date read 3112 and it was interesting to see him run such a promising race on his return from a summer break at Southwell last week, the grey getting no cover and being forced to race three or four wide on the turn in before boxing on to be sixth despite looking to get tired.
Beaten just three and a half lengths and shaping a lot like the comeback run after two months off might have been needed (sent off 28/1), he's been dropped a pound to a mark of 90 and is now 1lb lower than when beaten narrowly into second by Farasi Lane over this course and distance on April 1.
His form went awry after that and it’s clear he didn’t cope well with the switch to turf – quick and slower ground was experimented with – but Cox isn’t daft and thankfully didn’t overdo it, with precisely this sort of race no doubt his target for a while now.
Stall six is perfectly workable and there’s a strong pace in the offing thanks to Hieronymus and Valkyrian so it’s not hard to envisage Vultar getting back on an upward trajectory and putting in a new career best.
If that’s the case then he’s going to be a real player in an open-looking race and definitely rates the value at this stage.
Published at 1600 BST on 06/09/24
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.