Matt Brocklebank looks ahead to Saturday's brilliant racing on both sides of the Irish Sea and highlights four bets worth considering.
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Value Bet tips: Saturday, September 9
1pt win Bless Him in 2.35 Ascot at 14/1 (General)
1pt win Prosperous Voyage in 2.45 Leopardstown at 28/1 (General)
1pt e.w. La Pulga in 3.00 Haydock at 40/1 (BetVictor, BoyleSports, Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt win Alflaila in 3.20 Leopardstown at 11/2 (General)
Already advised
Burrows' remarkable run to continue in Ireland
Saturday’s ITV Racing schedule wouldn’t look too shabby without a superb Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes and the Matron from Leopardstown thrown into the mix, and there are bets to be had all over the place.
I’m a big fan of King Of Steel but he and Auguste Rodin, particularly the latter, are too short in the market for the big one in Ireland, even on their Derby form from Epsom. Fellow three-year-old Al Riffa looks about right around 10/1 given the class gap he still has to bridge, and it’s surely among the older horses where the real value lies.
Onesto and Dettori could get on like a house on fire but there’s not much between him and Luxembourg on their tight finish in this 12 months ago and the latter has looked a fraction short of top-class so far this season, while the French runner would surely have preferred soft ground.
Nashwa was always expected to come good in the autumn and it was encouraging to see her put the Nassau effort behind her when beaten just a length by stable companion Mostahdaf in the Juddmonte International.
It’s a third quick run for her in a little over five weeks, though, and I much prefer the claims of ALFLAILA, who comes here a very fresh horse and should still have his best days ahead of him.
That was the impression I got towards the end of his three-year-old campaign last year and he took the step up to Group 2 level in his stride with a striking victory in the Sky Bet York Stakes on his first run of the season in July.
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Owen Burrows' horse still has a bit to find with the likes of Nashwa and Luxembourg on a strict line through York runner-up My Prospero, but Alflaila beat that one with something to spare in the end on the Knavesmire, despite having to come from the back, and is entitled to be a good bit sharper on the back of it.
He's completely unexposed over 10 furlongs, loves to hear his hooves rattle and I reckon he'll get an ideal pace to chase here with Point Lonsdale and Luxembourg bound to go hard from halfway which could in turn give their Derby-winning stablemate the best possible chance.
Whereas the down-in-trip King Of Steel might become embroiled a bit too early, Jim Crowley seems certain to bide his time on the supplemented Alflaila, and I can see him finishing off stronger than anything down the outside to keep the Shadwell flag flying high this year.
Voyage an interesting raider for Beckett
Tahiyra is the short-priced favourite for the Coolmore America “Justify” Matron Stakes despite having a layoff to overcome and tackling her elders for the first time.
She’s obviously very classy and has performed on all types of ground but there are three other Group 1 winners in this field, one of which is her Dermot Weld stablemate Homeless Songs, who also lacks a recent run.
Meditate took G1 honours at the Breeders’ Cup last November but hasn’t kicked on at three, including being beaten hollow by the jolly at Royal Ascot, which leaves PROSPEROUS VOYAGE as the remaining top-class winner and she looks a shade underestimated.
She’s no superstar but was second to Inspiral in the Fillies’ Mile as a juvenile and won last year’s Falmouth Stakes, turning the tables on the Gosden filly in the process. That victory came on good to firm ground and the only time she’s had similar conditions since, she won a Group 3 at the Derby meeting at Epsom this summer.
She backed that up with a good third in the Duke Of Cambridge at Royal Ascot and I reckon we can scrap her repeat bid in the Falmouth as the rain came at Newmarket at a bad time.
She's had a nice break subsequently and, having almost won the Guineas on her return to action last spring, the freshness angle doesn’t bother me at all.
In-form trainer Ralph Beckett is turning to first-time blinkers in a bid to spark something positive too (35-264, 13% overall strike-rate) and Rob Hornby - who enjoyed his first British Group 1 victory on the filly last year and back in the saddle for the first time this term - should be able to get a nice early pitch from stall six.
Bless the old boy at Ascot...
At Ascot, the Lavazza Stakes looks as tough as it gets but I think Beckett could strike here too with Overactive, who might just remain a step or two ahead of the handicapper.
He’s gone up 7lb but was eased down close home by Rossa Ryan at Leicester last time and that was definitely an improvement on his initial handicap win at Lingfield the previous month.
I wouldn’t want to be laying 13/2 myself but by the same token Overactive isn’t wildly over-priced and I think there’s more of a chance to snag one at longer odds in the bet365 Handicap anyway.
Quinault’s winning spree came to an end recently but returning to seven furlongs looks a wise move after finishing third at the Shergar Cup meeting here last month.
Charlie Johnston’s Love De Vega looks another big improver on the back of his defeat of Abduction at Musselburgh, but the pair of them could be taking each other on from an early stage and, drawn right next to Love De Vega, BLESS HIM is going to get a perfect set-up under Hayley Turner.
Bless Him's usual jockey Jamie Spencer is otherwise engaged up at Haydock but Turner rides Ascot’s straight track almost as confidently and she’s enjoyed some of her career highlights here so it’s a tempting partnership between horse and rider on the face of it.
Bless Him’s two course wins came in 2017 and 2019 but he’s run some mighty races in defeat since including when beaten a short-head by Fresh in last year’s International Stakes.
That came on the back of a stylish win from Ropey Guest in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket’s July Festival and he’s given some pretty decent hints that the fire still burns within in a handful of outings this year.
The pick of the bunch was his fourth when back for the Bunbury Cup but he had no chance from his draw and the way the race panned out in this season’s International and, having slipped back to the same mark as his last win (101), it looks significant trainer David Simcock has taken him out of his last three engagements at Newbury and Goodwood (x2) on account of the ground.
They’ve clearly been content to sit and wait for conditions to come in his favour and although Ascot have clearly been watering heavily, the ground will be absolutely ideal for this smooth-travelling hold-up horse.
Happy enough with antepost Sprint Cup interest
Nothing for me at Kempton and I’ll be resisting the temptation to add a third string to the bow ahead of Haydock’s Betfair Sprint Cup, having backed Spycatcher (16/1) a couple of weeks ago and added another each-way interest in Saint Lawrence when he looked too big at 20s on Monday.
Shaquille should take the world of beating on all known form but they’re still making small adjustments to his routine at home - stalls guru Gary Witheford reportedly the latest to try and work his magic - and one day I reckon it might just backfire and bring the winning run to an end.
Spycatcher was initially top of the list of potential dangers on the back of his near-miss in the Maurice de Gheest but I’d admit his participation looks in doubt if the ground dries up as significantly as expected.
That should bring impressive Wokingham winner Saint Lawrence – just behind Spycatcher in France having not got an ideal run through at Deauville – right into the equation but Spycatcher even being declared gives me the impression they’ve put heaps of water down over the past few weeks so I’ll sit tight and see how the race shakes down.
There were five non-runners in this 12 months ago, don’t forget, though admittedly only three of those were due to the fast conditions.
Fast ground at Haydock: Turn to team Johnston
I won’t be taking on Spencer and Light Infantry in the Superior Mile, while I really struggled to get away from the top of the market in the three-year-old handicap too. However, the valuable Betfair Exchange Old Borough Cup Handicap is a different matter and I can't let LA PULGA go unbacked at a wild price.
His racecard form figures of 123500 hint at considerable decline since the win at Hamilton in early-June but the two duck-eggs aren’t a fair reflection at all as he’d have hated the heavy ground at Goodwood and then got wiped out by the eventual winner and runner-up, Forza Orta and Aztec Empire (who both reoppose here), over two miles at the Ebor Festival last time.
Despite racing wide the whole way at York, he was in the process of showing a whole lot more of that early-season sparkle before the interference coming to the final two furlongs, and he’s been dropped another pound in the ratings on the back of it.
Currently rated 85, that’s just 3lb higher than for his aforementioned four and a quarter-length success in Scotland and 2lb lower than for the subsequent head second when bidding to defy a 5lb penalty just four days on from that at Pontefract.
La Pulga went close in a Doncaster nursery in the September of his juvenile campaign, while he signed off for previous trainers Harry and Roger Charlton with a Salisbury win last September, and I can see him roaring back to form in a race the Johnston yard won in 2003 (The Persuader), 2006 (Peppertree Lane), 2009 (Yes Mr President) and 2012 (Sir Graham Wade), three of whom also defied double-figure draws.
Published at 1600 BST on 08/09/23
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