It's King George day at Ascot and our man highlights the best bets from that venue as well as one in the Sky Bet Dash at York.
Value Bet tips: Saturday July 23
1pt win Atomic Lady in 2.40 York at 16/1 (General)
1pt win King Zain in 3.00 Ascot at 16/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral, bet365)
1pt win Aratus in 3.00 Ascot at 12/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt win Power Of Darkness in 4.45 Ascot at 10/1 (bet365)
Already advised
No desire to go in again in the big one
It seems the ‘punting Gods’ put all other supposed deities to shame when it comes to mysterious movements and, with a solemn nod to Bill Oddie after last weekend’s avian disruptions at Stanstead Airport, it appears this column’s long-range position on the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth QIPCO Stakes at Ascot fortuitously has a run for its money.
Antepost fancy Emily Upjohn does look to hold a massive chance here too, given the unlucky Oaks runner-up receives weight from everything in the line-up while simultaneously possessing strong form, an unexposed profile and at least as much potential as any of her five rivals.
Westover is obviously feared most as the powerful son of Frankel could set out to bully this small field from a fair way out, Colin Keane no doubt well aware that stretching Mishriff’s stamina to breaking point could go a long way to sealing victory on Ralph Beckett’s colt.
Midweek support for Torquator Tasso has seen his price dry up a little, while the other two shouldn’t be good enough so I won’t be having another dart at the feature race, for obvious reasons.
Unexposed pair make International appeal
The Moet & Chandon International Stakes is an extremely open affair and although initially drawn to Eagleway at a monster price in the first-time visor, Ivan Furtado's yard is going through a very quiet spell (0-22 during July and just 4-86 since the start of May), and he’d probably need a lot more rain to stand any sort of chance of bouncing back to top form in this company.
There are a couple of far less exposed types in opposition anyway – both of whom are perfectly backable at current odds – and the first is KING ZAIN.
He has the longest layoff to overcome of these 22 runners but Harry and Roger Charlton have clearly been very patient in bringing him back to action on the turf when it suits them and it looks highly significant they do so in such a valuable Saturday handicap – and one the yard won a couple of years ago with big gamble Blue Mist (9/2 favourite).
King Zain isn’t going to go off that short but it’s not hard to see the son of Kingman attracting support under James Doyle from what looks a favourable draw in stall 21.
Granted, there’s always an element of guesswork involved with the draw on the Ascot straight course but if the last meeting is anything to go by then the likes of Tactical (two), Bless Him (three) and Jumby (six) could all have a job on their hands to get seriously competitive.
King Zain is bred for middle-distances but that project didn’t work out during his time under Mark Johnston and a stable switch, coupled with a drop in distance, looked to have sparked something major in two Kempton appearances this spring.
He appeared to have the race sewn up before being short-headed by Notre Belle Bete in April and then absolutely sluiced up over this seven-furlong trip the following month.
He beat solid handicapper Soar Above, who had previously just got the better of Fresh at Kempton (albeit in receipt of plenty of weight), by three and a quarter lengths that day and looking back at it he’s probably lucky to have only gone up 8lb, such was his dominance.
This is a different test altogether while his last visit to Ascot yielded a limp fifth of seven last May, but this horse appears to have a new lease of life and, while generally asked to force the pace for previous connections, getting a little cover in a big field for the first time in his life is expected to unlock even more improvement.
The other one to keep on side in the day’s big betting heat is ARATUS, who was being considered for pattern races after racking up a hat-trick of seven-furlong handicap wins last summer, a run that started at Doncaster on this very weekend 12 months ago.
He missed an intended Ascot debut in early-October on account of the heavy ground and was subsequently gelded before being put away for the winter.
It looks like he may have taken a little while to acclimatise after the operation but he didn’t stay the trip in the Royal Hunt Cup last time and prior to that he’d finished just in front of subsequent Ascot hero Dark Shift (reopposes on Saturday) in what has turned out to be a strong edition of the Victoria Cup.
Seven furlongs is far more his bag and, having crept down the weights a couple of pounds since starting his campaign in a three-runner Listed race at Leicester, Clive Cox’s charge is now just 2lb higher than when beating Escobar at Goodwood at the end of August.
He’s another with a high draw and plenty of pace around him in the form of Rhoscolyn and Lion Tower, he travels extremely strongly (arguably too strong at times – hence the gelding, presumably) and, like King Zain, he’s a four-year-old still with a good deal of potential.
Darkness to shine on second start of season
It’s not on ITV Racing but I won’t let that stop me having a bet against Saga in the Porsche Handicap.
The Queen’s horse was always going to be a skinny price on his next start after such an eyecatching run in the Britannia but he’s only won a maiden and has now gone up a total of 13lb since the start of the season, without adding to his tally.
Preference, at the odds, is for relative veteran POWER OF DARKNESS who is 1-1 at Ascot, having won at the 2019 Shergar Cup meeting, and ran a blinder on his belated seasonal debut at Newmarket’s July Course earlier in the month.
The Charlie Appleby pair of Noble Dynasty and Echo Point were in a different league that day but Marcus Tregoning’s charge beat the rest well enough, despite not being unnecessarily punished in the closing stages, and he’s been left on the same mark (92).
That’s just 2lb higher than when winning over a mile at HQ last August and his patient run-style should be ideally suited to how mile handicaps tend to pan out on this track, despite the fact there isn’t going to be a wild amount of early pace by the looks of things on paper.
Atomic can blast back to her best
Best bet at York comes in the Sky Bet Dash where ATOMIC LADY can come storming back to form.
She looked potentially well treated at the start of the year based on her placed efforts behind Ever Given and Flotus as a two-year-old and I’ve got to give her another chance having been dropped from 91 to 85 after just three starts so far in 2022.
One of those came in Listed company at Carlisle when clearly out of her depth and she never really threatened at Newmarket last time our either but, having won a nursery here at York before going close in the big sales race at the Ebor Festival last August, it wouldn’t be a surprise if local trainer Tim Easterby has had this race in mind for Atomic Lady for a while.
Getting her first chance against exposed, older rivals, and consequently in receipt of the 5lb three-year-old allowance, could easily spark the daughter of Kodiac back to life and she rates the value play here at 16/1 generally.
Published at 1600 BST on 22/07/22
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