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Ascot and Newmarket Tips: Best Value Bets for ITV Racing on Saturday October 11
Matt Brocklebank previews the pick of the action from Ascot on Newmarket this Saturday and has a couple of recommended bets.
- Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Value Bet tips are initially available to logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App 15 minutes later.
- Following all Matt's selections to recommended odds/stakes since the start of 2024 would have produced 142.70pts in profit (257pts staked, ROI of 55.52%).
Value Bet tips: Saturday October 5
1pt win Noisy Jazz in 1.30 Newmarket at 10/1 (William Hill, bet365)
1pt win United Approach in 3.35 Ascot at 16/1 (Coral, William Hill)
Welcome to Jazz club...
Only six runners for Saturday’s domestic Group 1 – the Virgin Bet Sun Chariot Stakes – but a quality field and potentially an informative race too with the rest of the autumn in mind.
Quite where Nashwa is at fitness-wise will be interesting (easy enough to back at 4/1) and she lines up alongside Gosden stablemate Inspiral, who also has a question mark hanging over her at the moment following a disappointing campaign this time around. It’s likely to be Inspiral’s final start, so that should be factored in if punting.
Having already put Tamfana up for the QEII on Champion Day next month, I’m obviously looking forward to seeing how David Menuisier’s horse fares against the big two after beating some lesser-rated, older fillies in the Atalanta Stakes at Sandown.
It’s hoped that serves as a real confidence-booster for her as she showed she wasn’t out of place in top-class company with encouraging efforts in the 1000 Guineas and Prix de Diane earlier in the year.
She’s pretty solid around the 5/2 mark at time of publication and I can’t imagine Colin Keane coming in for the ride is a negative, Oisin Murphy having been required for See The Fire who comes here over the Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp.
The Newmarket feature looks a no-bet race to me, but NOISY JAZZ is well worth backing to land the British EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap earlier on the card.
A half-sister to Big Orange, she defied a huge price when winning a July Course novice event on debut in early-August, but there was no fluke about it and the second and third went on to win races subsequently.
No surprise then to see trainer James Owen pitch Noisy Jazz into Listed company at York on her second outing, but the swift switch from a mile up to 12 furlongs on rapid ground completely back-figured and she failed to figure having raced with the choke out through the early stages.
The daughter of Ulysses is clearly a fast learner, fortunately, as she was out again less than a month later, running an eyecatching race back over the bare a mile at Windsor, ultimately beaten just half a length into third behind a couple of promising colts in Thyer and Tawajjah.
Noisy Jazz was taken out of last Friday’s Rosemary Stakes after the ground turned heavy and that could be an inspired move as while it’s still likely to be on the soft side at HQ this weekend, we saw last Saturday how quickly the moisture can disappear from the racing surface on the Rowley Mile.
The delay in getting her back on track also sees Noisy Jazz competing in handicap company rather than another Listed event and, given the pedigree and considerable promise shown to date, there must be a chance she proves to be very well handicapped off an opening mark of 85.
The 10-furlong trip should be well within range too, in fact it looked something of a necessity last time out, so I can see her taking all the beating in this under Hollie Doyle for the first time (she’s had one winner and two seconds from just six rides for the yard).
Sensible approach to major handicap
The ground is going to remain pretty holding at Ascot where the most appealing race is the BetMGM Challenge Cup.
The fact entries for this closed early means the second and third from Doncaster last month, Golden Mind and Germanic, are 3lb and 2lb well-in respectively compared to their future marks, and I can see the latter reversing form.
William Haggas’s horse did remarkably well to almost win on Town Moor in spite of his early keenness, and it was just the very testing conditions which saw him reeled in close home.
Germanic does go without the cheekpieces worn for the first time that day, though, so a lot rests on whether Cieren Fallon can get him to drop his head and settle into a rhythm as it’ll feel like a long way home from the two-furlong pole if he pulls as hard as he did at Doncaster.
At a bigger price, I’ll side with bottom weight UNITED APPROACH, who evidently likes plenty of ease underfoot and has a nice bit of course experience having run well on debut here two years ago, and put in a fine effort when beaten narrowly in a Classified race back here just last month.
That was his first start since late-June as he’d missed an engagement at Newbury due to good to firm going, so the run might just have been needed as he briefly appeared to have done enough to prevail before just getting mugged by Lord Bertie, who challenged a little away from United Approach and may have caught him - and rider Billy Loughnane - unawares.
It was still a highly creditable performance and another small step up on his previous second to Make Me King at Newcastle. That winner came out and landed a French Group 3 afterwards and the third, Grey’s Monument, won a nice handicap pot here last month, so the form’s really strong and - again - I reckon United Approach can be marked up as he was held up early on, faring much the best of those ridden towards the rear.
On the down side, he's been raised 4lb for the last effort and has yet to win a handicap in his life, but he'd have been out of the weights here without that hike and it's worth underlining the fact his only other outing in the handicap ranks came over six furlongs at Newbury in May, when he was a running-on fourth to the Ayr Gold Cup winner Lethal Levi.
So he’s not done much wrong at all so far and looks a fresh horse heading into what could be his most fruitful time of year, while Clifford Lee taking over in the saddle can only be considered a good move given his excellent record for trainer James Tate (10-35 at 29% strike-rate).
After just two starts at the trip, there is clearly masses of potential in the United Approach locker and it may be significant connections come here for the big pot rather than look to try and win a somewhat softer 0-90 handicap, for which he'd still be eligible.
Published at 1600 BST on 04/10/24
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