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Arc de Triomphe preview: David Ord sets the scene
Sometimes you must be honest.
It isn’t a vintage renewal of the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. It can’t be when none of the top ten middle-distance horses on Timeform master ratings are running.
City Of Troy is bound for America while the barring of geldings means Calandagan and Goliath can’t run – and how they’re missed.
Auguste Rodin heads to Japan, White Birch and Passenger are sidelined, the temptation to ask Kyprios to sit a speed awareness test was resisted by his team.
So, all of a sudden it’s a race where a mid-summer each-way chance becomes a major player.
But if it’s not an Arc for the purists – then the 2024 renewal is certainly one for punters. 16 runners, 9/2 the field extra places galore. There has to be a bet somewhere.
The market suggests the key piece of form is last month’s Prix Niel in which Sosie beat Delius and Look De Vega.
But then you watch the replay of the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly in June and see Look De Vega beat Sosie into third. You could only want to be with the winner in any subsequent rematch.
But in the Niel he was laboured, back from a break and apparently in need of the run; forced to make his own running too. But then Sosie has petrol left in the tank as he goes past his rival, flicking up both ears to make sure we received the message.
We’ve had talk since of scintillating work from Look De Vega, and while not quite catching the Eurostar as he hurtled up the gallops, by all accounts he’d have given the best of the Northern Rail fleet a bit of a fright.
Does that sway you? Do you think the winner comes from those races? Or is the Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes the key? You’ll remember it, Economics confirming his seat at the top table by joining the list of those to claim the scalp of Auguste Rodin.
But for Arc purposes you need to watch the third and fourth, Shin Emperor and Los Angeles, the hope of Japan and Ballydoyle first string respectively.
They said the former was only 75% ready for Leopardstown, it was his Arc prep and he exceeded expectations. And so did Los Angeles, who looked more likely to go up in trip for the Leger than drop to ten furlongs when he ground out victory in the Sky Bet Great Voltigeur at York.
And grinding is his way. Does he have the gears to win an Arc, the change of speed at the end of the race to put daylight between himself and the chasing pack?
If it came up deep in Paris, he’d handle it better than most – he’d relish an afternoon when you want to stand and swing rather than float like a butterfly – but will the weather gods play ball?
And how good is Shin Emperor? He’s bred to win an Arc being a full-brother to Sottsass but domestically could finish only fifth in the 2000 Guineas and third in the Japanese Derby before heading to Europe.
Is he a real top-notcher? Opinion is mixed among those with a strong handle on the form in the jurisdiction and jockey Ryusei Sakai won’t want to be too far back when the tempo increases down the short home straight on his first ride in the great race.
And just how good is that Irish Champion form with neither ever looked like winning? The right horses were involved in the finish but when little more than a length separates the first four home despite a strong pace then you can at least ask the question.
As you can about Bluestocking’s Vermeille win – or to be more accurate, whether she’ll again have the measure of Aventure?
The betting suggests she will but there was a moment, in the trial, when it seemed the runner-up had her beat, going on a furlong out only to succumb to the British raider’s late rally.
Aventure’s trainer Christophe Ferland thinks there are tweaks that can be made to reverse the form and one, you’d imagine, will be a slightly more conservative ride.
But then Bluestocking was winning her second Group One of the season that day, is a teak-tough, streetwise and very, very good racehorse.
She’ll run her race and on Timeform ratings that would put her within a pound of winning this Arc. But then you think back to the King George and what Goliath did to her. Is something with that extra gear lurking here somewhere?
And is that horse Al Riffa?
He was the stick by which we beat City Of Troy for his down-and-dirty Coral-Eclipse victory. But the figure he ran to there on Timeform performance ratings was the same one he recorded when winning a Group One in Hoppergarten subsequently.
And it’s an Arc when being second best to City Of Troy might be good enough to land top slot in Paris. It’s good enough to make him top rated going into it.
There are those who think Mqse De Sevigne is the bet for Andre Fabre, the trainer of Sosie who also has Sevenna’s Knight in the race. Three darts for the master chasing a remarkable ninth Arc, but saying they have a chance of finishing in the top three is as far as he’s gone in terms of hyperbole in the build-up.
The former is a prolific Group One winner, but one who is very effective at a mile. This will be her first try at a mile-and-half and while she’s bred to get it, will the genes tell the legs that in the final furlong of what could be an attritional contest?
It’s an Arc full of questions – and 24 hours out we have no firm answers. Find the right one yourself and on Sunday you might be rewarded as if you’ve backed the County Hurdle winner.
For me the roll of the dice is Aventure at 22/1. I might be wrong, but at those prices you don’t mind taking the chance.
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