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Antepost Value Bet: Opera Singer worth support at 20/1 for Arc de Triomphe
Matt Brocklebank reckons there's a filly worth backing for a long-range target ahead of potential engagements at Goodwood and York this summer.
- Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races, at the big Festivals and major antepost events.
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- Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over 260pts in profit.
Antepost Value Bet tips: Sunday October 6
1pt win Opera Singer in Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at 20/1 (General)
City Of Troy is the key horse in the middle-distance division this season, that much is clear. But with sights set on an end game in America, there’s been no talk whatsoever of him running in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and I don’t think it's even been in Aidan O'Brien's mind at all.
Granted, the Coral-Eclipse wasn’t exactly pin-pointed as the Justify colt’s next target in the immediate aftermath of the Derby at Epsom, but there does now appear to be a pretty obvious (and publicly stated) 10-furlong route towards the Breeders’ Cup Classic/Turf, via the Juddmonte International at York, the Irish Champions Stakes at Leopardstown and maybe even a racecourse gallop at Southwell. I’ll believe the latter when I see it, though it would very much be welcomed.
All the while the home-based three-year-olds have tightened their grip on the Arc, a prize the French have managed to keep on their shores three times in the past five years.
Firstly, Look De Vega did a decent impression of subsequent Arc winner Ace Impact when scooting to a clear-cut victory in the Prix du Jockey Club, then Chantilly third Sosie reminded everyone of trainer Andre Fabre’s immense talent when powering past Illinois to win the Grand Prix de Paris.
Sosie’s win was a mere franking of the Prix du Jockey Club form for many, though on the other hand it did look a significant step forward from the son of Sea The Stars, who revelled in the step up to a mile and a half for the first time over the same course and distance as the Arc itself. Soft ground in autumn would suit him well.
With Look De Vega 7/2 and Sosie 14/1 in places, I’d probably be backing the Fabre runner to take his revenge if it were simply a case of picking between the ‘locals’. But I do believe there is a horse being overlooked in this market – perhaps significantly so – and for a moment I thought Graham Cunningham had come to the same conclusion in a Sporting Life Racing Podcast a couple of weeks back.
Speaking in light of City Of Troy’s unconvincing Sandown success, he said: “I’ve made a list of the horses who could test him in the next few months as the ones he’s come up against so far are not top-class – either in the Derby or the Coral-Eclipse.
“Ezeliya has been retired after bolting up in the Oaks; King Of Steel is on the sidelines and for quite some while it seems; White Birch is off games; Passenger is off games; Economics – is he as good as he looked at York? And then there’s Calandagan. So these are the horses we need to see City Of Troy up against.
“From his own stable (so unlikely to take him on), we have Auguste Rodin, Luxembourg and here is I think perhaps the biggest sleeper of the season in his own stable… Henry Longfellow.”
Now, not for a moment do I doubt GC's judgement and Henry Longfellow may well fulfil his immense potential at a mile or beyond, but I could have sworn his final two words of the above utterance were going to be OPERA SINGER.
It’s pushing it somewhat to suggest I was more excited about her than City Of Troy going into the winter but it was a close call and, after apparently taking her time to come to hand early in the spring, her two racecourse appearances have been hugely promising.
And the best is surely yet to come when faced with more of a test of stamina. By the same Triple Crown-winning sire as her much-vaunted stablemate, Opera Singer is out of a Sadler’s Wells mare whose best son and daughter so far – Hit It A Bomb and Brave Anna – never trained on, but I think we can dispel any fears over that being the case with this filly.
The Irish 1,000 run, when third behind Fallen Angel and A Lilac Rolla, was patently needed, while her subsequent always-prominent Coronation Stakes second to Porta Fortuna – with some of the other Newmarket protagonists in behind – confirmed to me we’re looking at a top-notch autumn project in the making.
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After Porta Fortuna rubber-stamped the Ascot form with a straightforward success in last week’s Falmouth at Newmarket, and a step up to 10-furlongs for the Nassau Stakes reportedly just around the corner for Opera Singer, the advice is simple: back her at 20s before Goodwood and York, where I fully expect her to try a mile and a half for the first time in the Yorkshire Oaks.
With entries in the Matron and the Irish Champion to her name as well, I have to acknowledge the potential for Opera Singer to stay over a mile or a mile and a quarter until the end of the year, with races like the Prix de l’Opera (10f) and Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (13f) possibly in the mix too, but O’Brien is on record saying that Ryan Moore flagged the Arc as a suitable goal after the runaway win in last October’s Prix Marcel Boussac, and I just can’t see the likes of Los Angeles, Continuous or Luxembourg being good enough to fly the flag for the Ballydoyle team in an Arc.
Auguste Rodin is the big quandary (it was ever thus) but he’s not exactly a model of consistency and who knows what will happen if he returns to Ascot for another shot at the King George. He’s also as short at 10/1 in places for the Arc and the general 20s about Opera Singer just makes far more appeal as I fully expect her to flourish as the year goes on – just as she did in 2023.
Published at 1500 BST on 20/07/24
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