Matt Brocklebank picks out a couple of juicy antepost prices in his long-range special for the 2024-25 National Hunt season.
- Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races, at the big Festivals and major antepost events.
- Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over 240pts in profit.
Antepost Value Bet: National Hunt Season
1pt win Il Etait Temps in King George VI Chase at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Midnight River in Coral Gold Cup at 20/1 (bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral)
Many try and suggest the jumps season proper starts at Chepstow, for some it’s Wetherby’s Charlie Hall fixture and others when racing returns to Cheltenham in late-October but who are we kidding, really?
It’s Willie’s world after all and the Mullins machine doesn’t get rolling until later this month and the big John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase meeting. And just look at the roll of honour for that often-overlooked Grade 1 contest. Captain Christy, Dawn Run, Carvill’s Hill, Florida Pearl, Beef Or Salmon and Kicking King all feature.
In the past decade alone it’s been won by three different Cheltenham Gold Cup winners in Galopin Des Champs, Sizing John and Don Cossack, while Djakadam (x2), Min (x3), Allaho and last year’s Punchestown hero Fastorslow were/are all absolute mustard at peak form too.
It always was a bit special but the John Durkan has now become the early-season Box Office race when it comes to top middle-distance and staying chasers, and it’s also the one pre-Christmas race in which Mullins clearly doesn’t mind knocking a few heads together from his own yard.
Five from Closutton went to post last year, two the year before and a remarkable (ridiculous) seven the year before that. Min’s first victory when even-money favourite in 2018 was the last time Mullins went single-handed, so expect more of the same from this ultimate creature of habit, who has 10 provisionally entered up at the time of writing.
Galopin Des Champs, Fact To File and Blue Lord have all been strongly touted as likely runners in the race, but the one from the yard who keeps getting overlooked is IL ETAIT TEMPS, who I was fascinated to see among the recently published entries for the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day.
This must be among the least fashionable four-time Grade 1 winners of all time as he barely gets a mention but keeps rocking up to the big meetings and taking the scalps of better-fancied horses, including some of his own stablemates.
Danny Mullins is seen as something of a maverick and can clearly divide opinion – occasionally within the family unit – but I think he’s one of the most watchable riders in the game at the moment and is hardly lacking when it comes to that little bit of Mullins magic either.
Il Etait Temps was twice ridden by Paul Townend last season and won on both occasions, including for what was a personal-best effort in the Manifesto Novices’ Chase at Aintree, but the teak-tough six-year-old is definitely Danny’s ride on the whole, and I’d be amazed if he wasn’t begging his uncle for the horse to be trained for the King George.
Danny Mullins has only ever had three rides around Kempton’s chase course and he’s won two of them, including the 2021 King George on Tornado Flyer, who was a similar sort of type although arguably not quite as naturally gifted as Il Etait Temps, who is completely untried and untested at three miles but looked to be crying out for it when bolting up in that two and a half-mile Manifesto back in April.
The horses he beat that day, Ginny’s Destiny and Grey Dawning, are considered two of the brightest staying prospects in Britain and are also in the King George mix, though why the Skelton horse is so much shorter in the betting doesn’t really seem to add up.
Il Etait Temps signed off last season with a more typically scrappy victory, breaking his duck at Punchestown which may be significant when it comes to his first port of call this time around, and while the Arkle showed he’s probably just not quite as classy or as pacy as Gaelic Warrior when that one’s properly on song, he’s obviously got lots of untapped potential over longer distances this season.
There has been some suggestion of Gaelic Warrior being aimed towards Kempton too, but I’ll believe that when I see it as surely his best chance is simply to focus on the races in which the fewest obstacles are jumped.
The King George may well be right-handed but there were still 18 fences to tackle the last time I checked, and Gaelic Warrior looks every inch a Champion Chase horse for my money, despite having previously won over just about every trip going.
Il Etait Temps’ jumping, in contrast, seemed to get better and better as the season wore on and I like the look of his record when fresh too with the John Durkan comeback and a return to Punchestown in mind.
If he wins that I reckon he’ll be half the price he is for the King George but let’s not forget that Tornado Flyer was only fifth in the John Durkan before springing a surprise and, given the sheer strength in depth to the big race at the end of this month, it wouldn’t be the end of the world if he found one or two too good as well.
I’m no great fan of Cheltenham Festival punting in early-November and will do everything I can to keep the powder dry until the night before for once, while the same goes for the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Greatwood Hurdle in a couple of weeks' time too, but I’ll happily part with my cash nice and early for this cracking Christmas project.
Midnight to strike for Skeltons
The Coral Gold Cup at the end of the month is the other race I’m quite keen to get involved with at this point as I’m not convinced current market leader Chianti Classico is going to show up for it.
Mahler Mission was second for John McConnell last year and may return for another crack, while recent Cheltenham winner Senior Chief could be aimed at the race off his revised rating (up 9lb to 151). But that’s the key point I think in that there isn’t going to be a huge amount of interest from Ireland again, and of those who do look like potentially coming over, we know all about their BHA marks and respective merits.
It's also a race that is already priced up across the board and it was interesting to note that Bravemansgame barely made a ripple on the market after trainer Paul Nicholls mentioned this as a possible target following the horse’s recent comeback defeat when “fit and ready” at Wetherby.
He’s never really struck me as the type to slog it out under a huge weight but if he – or Royale Pagaille for that matter – runs off a mark of 165 under 12 stone then some promising second-season chasers like Broadway Boy and Trelawne will be very nicely weighted on the face of it.
However, they’re not being missed in the betting and at longer odds I’m all over Dan Skelton’s MIDNIGHT RIVER, who has unfinished business in the Newbury contest having been going strongly and jumping well before departing at the 14th fence last year.
He must have picked up an injury that day as it was quite an ugly fall and he missed the rest of the campaign but he’s still only nine and shaped very well on his return to action at Wetherby earlier this month.
He’ll no doubt have benefited hugely from that run and performed about as well as one could hope considering he was giving the thick end of two stone (as well as race-fitness in the winner’s case) to the two who finished in front of him.
On top of that, the handicapper dropping Midnight River another 2lb to 151 – the mark he defied in style when winning the big staying handicap on the Mildmay Course at Aintree in 2023 – looks a genuine bonus, and there’s surely scope for him to rate a good deal higher as he’s still relatively unexposed over staying trips.
A shot at the Grand National later in the year wouldn’t be out of the question if he’s able to stay sound and I’d have considered backing him for that had he even been among those priced up, but all that can wait and the suggestion is to take anything north of 10/1 for Newbury as he went off that price when competing from a 5lb higher mark 12 months ago and, with running plans all but confirmed, I think he has the potential to be favourite on the day.
Published at 1500 GMT on 10/11/24
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