Matt Brocklebank previews the Betfred Cesarewitch at Newmarket and recommends two 25/1 shots in his latest Antepost Angle column.
The Betfred Cesarewitch has thrown up a few shocks in recent seasons, only two of the past 10 winners being returned shorter than 14/1, and that’s one of the principal reasons why it’s easy enough to resist those towards the top of the antepost market for the big stayers' handicap on October 14.
John Constable is probably the easiest to overlook at this stage, before the draw and ground conditions are known, as his significant improvement during the summer came over hurdles with wins at Haydock and Market Rasen.
His rise from a National Hunt mark of 129 to 156 leaves him looking well treated from a comparatively low Flat perch of 88, but he hasn’t actually won on the level since taking a Navan maiden, when trained by a certain Aidan O’Brien.
Alan King’s Who Dares Wins is harder to oppose, given he’s officially well-in after winning the Cesarewitch Trial, clearly enjoys the nature of the Rowley Mile course and is also versatile in terms of the going.
The Coral Cup third has experience of huge-field handicaps and does remain open to a bit more improvement on the level, but it’s clear another step forward will be required to follow up last month’s triumph.
If the market can often be made to look silly in this great spectacle, then it’s also the case that age isn’t much of a barrier to success.
Caracciola wasn’t the first veteran to win it when scoring at the age of 11 in 2008, since when there have been two seven and one eight-year-old Ces heroes, which leads me to believe SHREWD has been under-estimated slightly at 25/1 (General).
He was runner-up to Heartbreak City in last year’s Ebor and trainer Iain Jardine went one better when Nakeeta took that prestigious York prize in August, so it’s reasonable to assume this seven-year-old has been campaigned with the Cesarewitch as his big end-of-season target.
He certainly wasn’t disgraced when 12th from stall 28 12 months ago and, after a fairly quiet season this time around, he returns off a 6lb lower mark.
The reduced rating looks perfectly justified but it’s hard to believe he’s anything like over the hill on the back of his promising third to Who Dares Wins in the Trial last month, and he’d have finished closer still had he not met with interference half a mile from home.
He was looked after close home by Cal Rodriguez, who will hopefully be in the saddle again claiming a valuable 5lb on the big day, and there must be a decent chance he can reverse the form with the winner on the revised terms, which would put him right in the mix with a massive chance.
Another I’m happy to take a chance on at the same price is LAGOSTOVEGAS, one of six entries for Willie Mullins, who is still seeking his first Cesarewitch victory but is obviously no stranger to success in major Flat handicaps in Britain.
The mare in question is a relatively new recruit to the Mullins yard, joining in May this year and immediately delivering on the considerable potential she showed for previous handler David Kelly, who held her in high regard from an early stage.
Mullins looks to have really found the key to her, winning once on the Flat and twice over hurdles, most recently a narrow success over timber at Listowel from a jumps mark of 136.
Ruby Walsh ultimately just held on by a head that day but his mount coasted into the lead and was clearly keeping a little bit to herself on the run-in. That also looked the case when Lagostovegas was third behind stablemate Whiskey Sour in one of the valuable two-mile Flat handicaps at Galway in July, where Patrick Mullins would probably admit he hit the front a fraction too soon.
Despite that defeat on her last run in this sphere, there’s a strong sense that the five-year-old is well-handicapped from a mark of 91 on the back of a cheeky victory over timber off 136 and, unlike Whisky Sour and another interesting potential Mullins representative Laws Of Spin, the trainer has nominated Newmarket as this horse’s likely next port of call.
If the market is to shift dramatically in the next fortnight then the Mullins mare could be one to spring from the pack and is worth getting on side before running plans are firmed up.
Recommended bets: Betfred Cesarewitch
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