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Antepost Angle: Matt Brocklebank's best bet for the Randox Health Grand National at Aintree on April 14
Paul Nicholls has a live chance of landing a second Grand National success at Aintree on April 14, according to our antepost racing expert Matt Brocklebank.
Randox Health Grand National recommended bets
1pt e.w. As De Mee at 66/1
Click here to back As De Me at 66/1 (Non-runner/no bet, Five places and Best Odds Guaranteed)
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AS DE MEE looks to have been underestimated ahead of a potential first crack at a marathon trip in the Randox Health Grand National.
Aintree experience has always been a fairly significant pointer when it comes to races over the famous fences on Merseyside and Paul Nicholls' eight-year-old has become a bit of a regular there over the past couple of seasons, with four previous outings over the National course under his belt in total.
Two of those have come in the Topham Chase in April, where he has run with credit on each occasion – finishing seventh to Eastlake in 2016 and fifth behind Ultragold last spring – while his best performance arrived when slamming his rivals in the Grand Sefton over the same two mile, five furlong trip in December 2016.
That impressive five-length victory was achieved from a mark of 137 so he’s got a significant task on his hands as he looks to defy 149 now, but there are reasons to believe he has improved again this season.
WATCH: 4-1 Favourite As De Mee, trained by Paul Nicholls and ridden by Sean Bowen wins the Betfred Grand Sefton Handicap Chase pic.twitter.com/3yfsOUMmuT
— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) December 3, 2016
Firstly, he was beaten just two lengths into second by Go Conquer on his seasonal return at Fontwell in October, a rival with whom he would be 5lb better off should they both make it to the National, and he immediately went one better at Kelso later that month.
It was an important victory for several reasons, not least the fact he beat Wakanda who has since franked the form with his subsequent second in the Rowland Meyrick and hard-fought victory in the Sky Bet Chase.
But the most obvious aspect to take from that Kelso win was that it was the first time that he’d raced beyond three miles and he appeared to get the trip really well, despite carrying his head a little high which he’s always had a tendency to do.
Stamina shouldn't be a surprise asset to As De Mee. His sire Kapgarde is not a prolific producer of stayers but there are staying chasers on the dam's side of the pedigree and he did win Sandown's EBF Final as a novice hurdler, a race known for throwing up decent performers over longer distances.
It would be folly to focus too closely on the fact that last year's winner of the Kelso race (EDF-ER Chase) was One For Arthur, but it can't be a bad indicator and surely gave connections some extra encouragement in terms of how they may look to campaign him this time around.
Things haven't gone swimmingly for As De Mee since then, but he ran a lot better than the bare form indicates when last of four in the Intermediate Chase at Sandown won by Might Bite prior to his King George victory, while it was too early to say what would have happened when he made a mess of the 10th and unshipped Sean Bowen in the Becher Chase when last seen.
He didn't look to be travelling particularly comfortably before departing, which was probably down to the heavy going, so freshening him up with the spring in mind looks an ideal move given his liking for decent ground.
He's got plenty of time to have a warm-up before a return to Aintree, where his jumping has generally been excellent on the whole, and a positive showing – possibly back at Kelso in early-March – could see his huge odds shorten for the big one on April 14th.
The winner of this year's Becher was obviously Blaklion and he's the general 10/1 favourite after the unveiling of the weights, but Total Recall seems sure to put pressure on Nigel Twiston-Davies' charge at the head of the market, especially if his trainer Willie Mullins has a good Cheltenham.
Total Recall has already won two huge handicap prizes this season in the Munster National at Limerick and the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury, while he was well placed to comfortably score back over hurdles at Leopardstown's Dublin Racing Festival.
His revised National mark of 156 is hardly a gift but he's another that is unexposed over extended distances and his Newbury effort suggested another mile wouldn't pose many issues.
The one that appeals most nearer the top of the weights, though, is the imposing Gold Present, who has really flourished over fences this season.
His form has worked out well too, with Newbury victim Warriors Tale going down narrowly at Doncaster and Frodon, who followed him home at Ascot last time, bolting up at Cheltenham on Trials Day subsequently.
Nicky Henderson's big hope fell at the Canal Turn in last year's Topham but had looked the part prior to that and is definitely more the finished article this term. He stays well but also doesn't look short of the natural pace required to stay competitive in a modern-day National.
Click on the image below to check out Sky Bet's NRNB & Best Odds Guaranteed Randox Health Grand National odds...
Among the dangerous-looking lurkers are Gordon Elliott's classy Noble Endeavor, who has been absent so far this season but may yet have a part to play, and the Tom George-trained Wild West Wind.
The latter fell when quite well fancied for the rescheduled Welsh National but had previously won in the style of a well-handicapped stayer at Chepstow. He'll need plenty to drop out but should ultimately make the cut despite officially being number 65 on the list as things stand.
Posted at 2100 GMT on 13/02/18.