The Antepost Angle column returns as our expert Matt Brocklebank picks through the entries for the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on February 10 before identifying a 14/1 selection.
The unveiling of the entries for the Betfair Hurdle never fails to wet the whistle at this particularly desiccated period of the jumps season and wading through the merits of all 59 horses engaged in the 2018 running of this valuable handicap can take one down all kinds of rabbit holes.
Starting burrowing away right at the top with Defi Du Seuil is potentially the most rewarding adventure of all, though recommending him as a solid bet at this stage may just prove a little too fanciful.
The imagination hardly needs to run wild to envisage him playing a massive part, however. Here is a horse who is unbeaten over hurdles in races at (or just a fraction over) two miles. He was the best juvenile hurdler around last season, winning seven times on the spin including Grade Ones at Cheltenham and Aintree.
He's owned by JP McManus, whose Get Me Out Of Here and My Tent Or Yours have won this race within the past 10 years, and he's in the care of fantastic 'target trainer' Philip Hobbs, who may still be waiting for his first Betfair winner, but has come close with horses finishing inside the first seven in four of the past five years – Cheltenian's second in 2015 the nearest he's come to hitting the jackpot.
Defi Du Seuil is 10/1 in places for the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham in March, and yet here he is at 20/1 to defy a handicap mark of 157.
One of those prices is wrong and while sorely tempting to excuse him his meek comeback run when bitterly disappointing in the Grade Two Coral Hurdle over the extended two miles, three furlongs at Ascot in November, I'm more inclined to believe that on the back of that effort alone this season he's just far too short for the Champion.
The Betfair Hurdle has developed into a race all about potential, six of the last eight being won by novices, and it just looks too risky to side with a horse with major question marks over them, especially with so many exciting young rivals lurking much further down the weights.
The obvious one is general 10/1 favourite Lalor, who fits the mould of last year's winner Ballyandy, being a top-notch bumper horse who has surely been let in lightly after failing to register a victory from his three qualifying starts over timber.
He's looked a slow burner at this discipline but, like third home Summerville Boy, who went on to land the Grade One Tolworth Hurdle last weekend, probably wasn't ideally suited by the sedate tempo they went when second to Western Ryder in the EBF qualifier at Cheltenham when last seen in mid-December.
His Aintree bumper form, when beating Western Ryder, as well as If The Cap Fits and Claimantakinforgan among others, reads exceptionally well and we know trainer Richard Woollacott is planning on sending him to Newbury.
The thing I don't quite like about him, aside from the relatively skinny price, is that after travelling like a Ferrari under Davy Russell, he just looked to be worried out of things up the Cheltenham hill last time.
The Betfair is a gruelling race often won by horses with a bit more stamina than out-and-out raw speed and Lalor may not be seen at his very best before a return to Aintree in the spring, though admittedly he does have heavy ground victories to his name in low-grade bumpers.
Tolworth second and third, Kalashnikov and Mont Des Avaloirs, would be fascinating runners here but the former would require trainer Amy Murphy to perform a U-turn to aim at this event rather than keep her powder dry for later in the season.
Donald McCain's Waterlord has obviously clicked this term and is another novice who would have to come into it on really testing ground, while of the older horses at bigger prices Knocknanuss and Spiritofthegames look like they may have been laid out quite nicely since winning relatively small pots at Lingfield and Fontwell respectively.
Newbury is just 20 miles from Nicky Henderson's Seven Barrows base and he's naturally well-represented with a nine-strong entry.
Comeback kids Charli Parcs, William Henry and Jenkins will all have their backers if lining up but perhaps mare Kayf Grace is the one who may ultimately lead the charge.
She beat Augusta Kate in a quality Aintree bumper in April 2016 but injury struck after making a winning return last season.
This year she looked in need of the run at Ascot and duly left that firmly behind with a taking performance from a mark of 132 at Kempton over Christmas and a rise to 140 could still leave her with a bit of wriggle-room if she lives up to her trainer's lofty expectations.
We end the 32Red Christmas Festival at @kemptonparkrace with a winning #PunditsPick and more money for @GreatwoodHorses from @BetVictor as Kayf Grace scores under @NdeBoinville pic.twitter.com/GxeNp2uIEp
— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) December 27, 2017
Lagostovegas appeals among the Irish brigade who at this stage have yet to be allotted handicap marks for this particular race, but for a selection I'm drawn back into the novice ranks and to Colin Tizzard’s LOSTINTRANSLATION.
A tall, striking son of Flemensfirth who was picked up from the point-to-point scene, he's made stealthy progress with every start over hurdles and looked a six-year-old with a serious future when winning a maiden hurdle at Newbury on December 1.
Before that he'd drawn 16 lengths clear of the third when runner-up – again at Newbury - behind Claimantakinforgan, who is now rated 146 after subsequently landing Ascot's Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices' Hurdle.
That novice form looks top drawer and Lostintranslation's revised mark of 134 seems tailor-made for a race like this, before hopefully going on to contest one of the top-level events at the Cheltenham Festival.
He's built up a solid course record already and rates the standout bet at this stage at the general 14/1 on offer.
Colin Tizzard will "aim at the roof" with Lostintranslation after his game victory in Newbury's opener #LWC pic.twitter.com/oWIhvWZRYF
— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) December 1, 2017
Recommended bets: Betfair Hurdle
1pt win Lostintranslation at 14/1 (General)
Posted at 2015 GMT on 10/01/17.
