In the latest Antepost Angle preview, Matt Brocklebank makes the case for a once-raced 28/1 shot landing the Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket.
Recommended bets: Qipco 2000 Guineas
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It's a long time since Godolphin’s silks were carried to victory by a Newmarket-trained colt in the 2000 Guineas.
Dawn Approach did the business for Sheikh Mohammed five years ago after the boys in blue had bought into the horse after his juvenile campaign, but he was kept with Jim Bolger in Ireland, and prior to that you’ve got to go right back to 1999 when Island Sands won under Frankie Dettori.
His success in the first Classic of the year came three seasons after Dettori had also guided Mark Of Esteem to victory, both horses trained by Saeed bin Suroor.
Bin Suroor – Godolphin’s longest-serving trainer - remains in place at Stanley House Stables, but a lot of water has passed under the bridge in the intervening years since his 2000 Guineas winners and for a few seasons now it’s the yard at Moulton Paddocks a couple of miles across town that has housed the most promising Darley-bred youngsters.
The distribution of quality between Bin Suroor and Charlie Appleby, who took over from Mahmood Al Zarooni five summers ago, has been well documented, but Appleby’s fine record with juveniles speaks for itself.
Outstrip (2013), Charming Thought (2014), Wuheida (2016) and Wild Illusion (2017) have all registered Group One, northern hemisphere success as two-year-olds, but Hawkbill’s Coral-Eclipse in 2016 and Wuheida’s Breeders’ Cup win last year are the only Appleby-trained, Group One winners as three-year-olds and indicate the conversion rate from high-class two-year-old to top-class three-year-old hasn’t quite been as effective as one might have hoped.
Godolphin threw three arrows at last year’s Guineas with the Richard Hannon-trained Barney Roy almost pulling it off when beaten a length by Churchill after suffering a troubled passage.
The 2018 challenge isn’t obvious at first glance but Wootton is a fascinating potential contender for French trainer Henry-Alex Pantall.
He was very wayward when scoring first time out at Deauville but plotted a much straighter path when winning a Listed race there on his final two-year-old start in October.
The son of Wootton Bassett won by five lengths and six lengths on his two public outings and, importantly, there is substance to the form of his second run when it comes to comparing him with the Brits.
Second in the Listed race was Ed Dunlop’s Alternative Fact, previously a six-length winner of a novice event at Salisbury and allotted a BHA mark of 101 following his three runs at two. Further back in fourth came the Hugo Palmer-trained Alba Power, who acquitted himself well during a busy 2017 campaign, also earning a three-digit British rating.
So it looks like we could be dealing with a pretty special talent in Wootton, who is a general 16/1 in a Guineas market dominated by Aidan O’Brien duo Saxon Warrior – the Racing Post Trophy winner - and Gustav Klimt, who has been absent since a pretty remarkable victory in the Group Two Superlative Stakes at Newmarket’s July Festival.
Neither horse makes much appeal at single-figure prices and the favourite Saxon Warrior looks a bad price in relation to Roaring Lion, who was beaten a neck at Doncaster after appearing to have the race won with an impressive burst of pace two furlongs out.
He was eventually overhauled by stamina-laden Derby hope Saxon Warrior but a good-ground Guineas would play to the strengths of John Gosden’s horse and of those at the top of the market, he looks the best value.
The beautifully-bred Elarqam is a huge prospect for Mark Johnston, but connections didn’t want to throw him into the deep end too early as a juvenile and he could be another one who only really blossoms when tackling middle distances a little deeper into the season.
That’s seemingly not the case with Expert Eye, with positive noises coming out of headquarters about his well-being of late, but we’re guessing as to what exactly went wrong when sent off 4/7 favourite for the Dewhurst.
Sir Michael Stoute says he’ll "certainly get a mile" and it’s hard to argue on pedigree (dam’s half-sister Special Duty won the 1000 Guineas), despite the incredible speed he showed when slamming his rivals in the Vintage Stakes at Glorious Goodwood.
At this stage Expert Eye can be left alone at no bigger than 11/1 and for a selection it's tempting to return to Godolphin and back Appleby's once-raced lurker KEY VICTORY at 28/1 (Sky Bet, bet365, Black Type).
His Rowley Mile course debut win over seven furlongs is worth another watch as William Buick had to extricate the colt from behind a wall of horses to make up ground late on and he eventually appeared to pass the post with loads to spare.
Of his trainer’s 57 two-year-old winners throughout last season, few looked to contain quite as much promise as this one and his breeding suggests a mile may prove to be his optimum.
A son of the brilliant two-year-old Teofilo, his dam is a sister to 2010 QEII and Celebration Mile winner Poet’s Voice (who, incidentally, sadly died last week), while Appleby recently trained his half-brother Blair House to win a Group One over nine furlongs at Meydan.
Charlie Appleby reflects on the impressive debut of Key Victory @NewmarketRace pic.twitter.com/Afgwq95IMW
— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) October 25, 2017
Key Victory’s Newmarket form has a pretty strong look to it. The runner-up, Hannon’s Qaysar, subsequently won well at Kempton and the third, the Roger Varian-trained Masaarr, could hardly have been more impressive when recording a lightning-quick time and routing an admittedly moderate field at Lingfield.
Key Victory beat the pair of them handsomely despite suffering a terrible run and, providing he’s made the right progress over the winter, he looks capable of muscling in on the Guineas picture and certainly looks over-priced as things stand.
Posted at 1905 BST on 26/03/18.
