Racing betting tips: Flat antepost
1pt win Mac Swiney in the Cazoo Derby at 20/1 (General)
1pt win Lone Eagle in the Cazoo Derby at 40/1 (Hills)
MAC SWINEY can match the form of just about any other potential rival in the Cazoo Derby at this stage and merits a bet at the general 20/1 on offer.
Jim Bolger’s New Approach colt seemingly had two ways of running as a juvenile, alternating between fairly spectacular and downright disappointing throughout his six-race two-year-old campaign.
But the good days certainly made up for the lesser efforts, especially when you consider potential excuses for the horse's defeats – his debut run, when reportedly getting a whack across the nose from a rival jockey’s stick, was palpably needed; while he wasn’t at all suited by the way the Tyros Stakes, or the National Stakes, turned into mad dashes to the line following sedate early fractions.
The evidence suggests Mac Swiney needs a true test of stamina and he’s seriously talented when getting it, underlined by the three-quarter-length defeat of One Ruler in the Vertem Futurity Stakes at Doncaster when last seen. His ability to cope with testing ground was a big plus on the day, but it could be unwise to account for the favourite’s defeat on that basis alone.
One Ruler is working the house down by all accounts and now finds himself heading the betting for the QIPCO 2000 Guineas, just ahead of St Mark’s Basilica and Wembley, the latter of which Mac Swiney has also beaten, in a seven furlong Curragh maiden last July.
Mac Swiney could be bound for Newmarket himself, of course, and even though a tactical Classic on the Rowley Mile doesn’t look exactly what the horse needs to be seen to best effect, especially on quick ground, he is entitled to finish somewhere in the vicinity of the aforementioned market leaders should he turn up.
With a 10-furlong trial looking more suitable, perhaps stablemate Poetic Flare will fly the flag for the yard in the Guineas, following his sparkling comeback success, but either way the trainer looks to have a good steer on where he stands with his top two three-year-old colts, and if anyone is going to break the apparent Ballydoyle/Godolphin stranglehold on the Epsom Classic, history tells us Bolger must be in the conversation.
A look at Mac Swiney and how satisfying this particular G1 winner must be for Jim Bolger this week👇🏼https://t.co/w3Sdyg0R30
— Cassie Tully (@CassieTully1) October 29, 2020
Back at the sharp end of the market, High Definition is a brother to Innisfree who hasn’t raced since his second to Kameko in the 2019 Vertem Futurity, and is clearly very highly thought of. He won the Group Two Beresford Stakes towards the end of September but had previously beaten Wordsworth just three parts of a length at the Curragh, and it was hard not to be impressed by that colt’s comeback win at the same venue over the weekend.
Wordsworth is going to relish a step up to a mile and a half in due course which may come at Chester next month (Vase), but a note of caution as his brother Kew Gardens didn’t care much for Epsom – finishing ninth in the Derby and hanging down the track when second to Defoe in the Coronation Cup – so a bit of experience going left-handed may well be needed before the Derby is seriously considered.
Among the others being a little overlooked in the betting are Yibir and LONE EAGLE, who both looked to be developing into top-quality colts at two and clash in Friday’s bet365 Classic Trial at Sandown.
They both have significant Epsom pedigrees too, Yibir being a brother to 2018 Oaks second Wild Illusion, and Lone Eagle being out of an unraced sister to 1997 Oaks winner Reams Of Verse.
Whereas Yibir wore a hood on debut and is said to be a bit of a “playboy” according to James Doyle, who rode him once on the track last year, Martyn Meade’s representative is seemingly about as tough and straightforward as they come. That really came to the fore when he made all on soft ground in the Group Three Zetland Stakes at Newmarket in October.
Lone Eagle is priced up for the Derby like he's a bit of a no-mark, but he's a 500,000 guineas son of Galileo whose breeders Ballylinch Stud were clearly keen to keep a share in when selling to Aquis Farm as a yearling at Tattersalls October Book 1, the two now technically in joint-ownership of the colt.
Meade has made a bright start this term and his two 'trials' horses so far have run screamers, Statement almost landing a bit of a punt when beaten in a head-bob by Alcohol Free at Newbury on Sunday, and fellow filly Technique being denied right on the line by Godolphin colt Wirko at Epsom on Tuesday.
He nailed the Commonwealth Cup with the last genuinely top-class three-year-old he got his hands on (Advertise), and insists soft conditions aren’t essential to Lone Eagle, who looks a potential springer in the next couple of days with a very respectable rating (110) already in the book. At 40/1 with Hills, a small bet on him is also advised.
Published at 1300 BST on 21/04/21
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