Analysis and tips for the Long Walk Hurdle card at Ascot and more

By Sporting Life

Horse Racing

Thu December 19, 2024 · 3h ago

Matt Brocklebank, Ben Linfoot and Andrew Asquith answer some key questions heading into Saturday's racing at Ascot and Haydock.

Strong Leader in the Long Walk at Ascot – banker or bust?

Matt Brocklebank: I don’t think there’s such a thing as a banker in this division at the moment, so the fact he’s quite a short-priced favourite on the back of beating Buddy One (at Aintree) and Monmiral on his comeback at Newbury is probably going to tempt me into a bet. Hiddenvalley Lake wasn’t done any favours by Buddy One at the last flight before finishing third to the favourite at the National meeting and could still have more to offer over staying trips, while The Wallpark is clearly on a massive upward curve and has been bought by JP McManus since his Pertemps Qualifier success at Cheltenham which speaks volumes. He beat a very solid yardstick in Gowel Road that day and he did it with his ears pricked. Shoot First is another fascinating Irish raider too as he’s so lightly-raced for his age and has evidently done well for some time off the track. So, in short, it’s a vote for ‘bust’ from me!

Ben Linfoot: There’s lots to like about Strong Leader’s chances for me. He looks like he is in the process of establishing himself as the leading force in the division and I loved his performance at Aintree in the spring when travelling so well on his way to victory in the Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle, slamming the likes of Flooring Porter and Crambo. I don’t mind the 9/4 about him for the Long Walk and I like the 12/1 about him for the Stayers’ Hurdle even more. He shaped encouragingly at this track when second in the Coral Hurdle last season, easing any course suitability doubts, and with the Olly Murphy stable in terrific shape, and Sean Bowen riding out of his skin, I’d rather say banker than bust.

Andrew Asquith: I'm with Matt, it's a bust for me. He is clearly a horse on an upward curve, who remains unexposed as a staying hurdler, and has beaten several of these before, but I don’t think the form of his Newbury win is that strong. It was only a four-runner race and he beat Monmiral and Langer Dan, who are arguably just smart handicappers, and the race only really developed in the straight. Yes, Strong Leader was well on top at the line, but all of his wins have come at left-handed tracks, and I think he’ll need to pull out more to defy favouritism. I put Crambo up in my Weekend View column as I still feel we are yet to see the best of him. He displayed a cracking attitude when narrowly winning this race last year from Paisley Park and connections have deliberately started him off later in the season due to his below-par performances in the spring. Crambo has an unblemished record when fresh and if he returns at the level which he reached last season he will give all these a race.

Strong Leader

The Howden Graduation Chase (1.50) is an interesting heat, how does this play out?

MB: Interesting is the perfect word for it as all four are arguably long-term handicap projects which makes it almost impossible to have a strong view. Iroko is the one I’d want on my side if forced into a corner, following what was a very encouraging comeback run at Haydock, but I’ll be watching from the sidelines in this trappy little contest.

BL: You can make a case for all four of them and there are various tactical scenarios and unknown fitness levels to deal with, too. It’s a bit of a nightmare! We didn’t learn anything new about Fil Dor as he won in a canter at 1/40 last time out, but I just wonder, with a few runs this season under his belt, if Danny Gilligan might try to capitalise on his fitness and play catch me if you can? Giving 3lb to Iroko won’t be easy, but it’s a scenario I’m toying with looking at the prices with Fil Dor the outsider of the field at around 4/1.

AA: Like Ben says, Fil Dor made all the running when completing a simple task at Thurles last time, so he might go forward again, but it could turn tactical. Iroko endured a hard race at Haydock four weeks ago, so hopefully that hasn’t left a mark, as I’m sure he’s a talented horse. Iroko travelled very well that day, and as he moved into contention, he did look the likeliest winner – he traded at 1.4 in-running on Betfair – but he was just unable to reel in a dour stayer who made all on testing ground. There is definitely more to come from him and the return to better ground should see him to good effect so, although it won’t be a betting race for me, he’d be my idea of the winner.

Racing Podcast: Glass half full or empty?

Have you a ‘Haydock heavy’ horse on the radar for Saturday?

MB: Well, I’ve had Diol Ker, who runs in the Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase, on the radar since learning that Evan Williams had taken a chance on him at the HIT sales back in May (£11,000) and although he’s put in three fairly lifeless performances for the yard so far, if anything is going to spark some sort of resurgence then it might just be this sort of race. They’ll be going very steady early on, given the conditions, and he’s just so well handicapped these days I might not be able to resist a dart at 50/1 or thereabouts.

BL: Haydock in December, we don’t have to look at the weather forecast do we? I have, just for fun, and it’s raining in the build up on ground already heavy in places, so we are looking for mudlarks again. Honneur d’Ajonc (12.20) is a difficult horse to predict and he bombed out last time, but he got his first win for the James Owen yard on his run before that and he has a hurdles win in heavy ground to his name from his time at Jane Williams’. He’s still very well treated on his best form and Callum Pritchard is a good jockey booking in a conditionals race so I can see myself being lured in.

AA: I like one in the same race as Honneur d'Ajonc as the Donald McCain-trained Speed Davies looks interesting to me now making his handicap debut. He has won twice under Rules (he was successful on his sole start in Irish points) and both of those wins, one in a bumper and the other a maiden hurdle, have both come on ground Timeform described as heavy. Speed Davies hasn’t progressed as expected so far this season, disappointing in first-time cheekpieces last time (they are now left off), but he also hasn’t had his ground, either. An opening mark of 112 shouldn’t be beyond him and I’d expect him to be much better now the mud is flying.

What is Sporting Life Plus?

Give us a handicapper that’s on the weekend shortlist?

MB: Flegmatik is creeping back to a workable rating and he’ll pop up in a handicap chase on a right-handed track before too long might be worth a second look in Ascot’s Howden Silver Cup, while stablemate Be Aware looks a dead obvious one in the Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle on the same card after his fine run at Cheltenham. He’s possibly a touch too obvious so I may be on the look out for something a bit more overlooked in Friday’s Value Bet column.

BL: As always this will depend on the price but there’s a good chance Gotthereintheend will be underestimated in the Thames Materials Novices’ Handicap Hurdle at Ascot (12.40) on Saturday. With Paul Nicholls, Jonjo O’Neill, Ben Pauling and Dr Richard Newland having runners this mare might be overlooked but her trainer, Robbie Llewellyn, won the same race last year and he has a very tidy record in novice handicap hurdles, winning four from 20 goes. Last year’s winner, Top Cloud, was another one getting loads of weight so it’s obviously alerting to see him try and repeat the trick with another horse also rated in the mid-90s.

AA: I'll leave the jumps racing to Matt and Ben as with my All-Weather Angle hat on I like Whats In The Bag in the £30 In Free Bets With BetUK Handicap (18:45) at Wolverhampton on Saturday. He was a winner for Roger Teal and was backed into favouritism on his third start for new connections at Lingfield earlier this month. He could only finish second, but he didn’t get the clearest run through, still on the bridle more or less entering the straight and having to switch for a run which lost momentum before flying home. He did well to get up for second, while his performance can also be upgraded when taking sectionals into account, running the final two furlongs over half a second quicker than the winner who had a perfect run. I’d expect him to prove himself well handicapped.

And finally, one horse you can’t wait to see over the festive period?

MB: While we’re on the Skelton trail, I really hope they’re bold enough to take on Potters Charm with The New Lion in the Challow Hurdle on December 28. His jumping is absolutely electric and he clearly stays two and a half miles, having got the Newbury experience under his belt late last month. Timeform have him currently rated 11lb behind the Twiston-Davies horse but The New Lion does have the ‘Large P’ and I think he could be about to really announce himself as the next star novice in Britain.

BL: It has to be Il Est Francais in the King George VI Chase, what a fascinating runner he is. Absolutely brilliant in last year’s Kauto Star at the same track, it is of course concerning that he has flopped twice in France in three starts since then, bursting a blood vessel on the latest occasion. That’s not ideal, but if he jumps round Kempton like he did last Christmas he has the talent to blow this field away and there hasn’t been a more suitable trainer name in the history of jumps racing for this race than Noel George.

AA: I’m looking forward to seeing Marine Nationale again at Leopardstown. He had a truncated season as a novice, but he impressed me on his chasing debut over the course and distance of the Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase, and I’m still of the opinion he can reach the heights over fences that he did hurdles. I didn’t think his seasonal return was that bad, looking noticeably rusty, but that is to be expected coming back from an injury and nine months off the track. That will have surely sharpened him up and I’d expect him to be much better at his fences, while Quilixios, who beat him that day, has since run very well in the Tingle Creek. Reports of Marine Nationale since have been very positive and he still remains with plenty of potential in my eyes. I haven’t torn up my ticket for the Champion Chase just yet, anyway.

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