Analysis and tips for Newbury, Kelso and Naas this weekend

A quieter weekend as we traverse between Cheltenham and Aintree and the mares take centre stage. Have you an angle into the Grade 2 BetVictor British EBF "National Hunt" Mares' Novices' Hurdle at Newbury (3.15)?

Matt Brocklebank: I’m not sure it’s an angle as such but I think Crazierthandaisy has to be of interest as the supposed Henderson second string. Her Warwick form is nothing to write home about on the face of it, but she took a bit of organising that day before storming home late and I can’t imagine they’re anywhere near getting to the bottom of her. James Bowen knows her from her bumper days and will probably be relishing the opportunity to get back on board the daughter of Walk In The Park. She might even be better suited to a Bowen (rather than De Boinville) ride anyway, while better ground at Newbury won’t an issue either.

John Ingles: A few look open to improvement, including Pismo Beach for Stuart Edmunds who has done well with mares in the past, and she makes each-way appeal at current odds. She shaped well when fourth at Huntingdon last time (meets the third, Betty’s Tiara, on better terms here) and she looks capable of taking another step forward on her handicap debut.

Ben Linfoot: It’s a good race and one potential angle is the improvement expected from Joe Tizzard’s Sunset Marquesa now she steps up in trip. She’s related to Drumlee Sunset and The Jigsaw Man who both stayed 2m4f well and this Walk In The Park mare could progress quite significantly now she goes out in trip from two miles.

And what about the even more valuable £100,000 Ladbrokes Herring Queen Series Final Mares' Novices' Handicap Hurdle up at Kelso (3.00)?

Matt Brocklebank: Harry Derham is in fine form and his Barrabool is considerably better off with Taunton winner Tour Ovalie now switched to handicaps and she could be the type to really take off and rise through the ranks. At a bigger price, Green Sky’s form from Navan and Newcastle has worked out quite well and her mark of 113 could have some wriggle-room seeing as she was rated in the mid-80s on the Flat at one point.

John Ingles: Most of these are covered by just 3lb on the Timeform weight-adjusted ratings so it looks wide open. Rula Bula and Walkadina are closely matched judged on their meeting at Newbury earlier in the season when second and fourth respectively in a listed event. The former has disappointed since, but Walkadina went close at Ludlow last time following a breathing operation and gives the impression this stiffer finish will be a definite plus.

Ben Linfoot: Surrey Belle somewhat leaps off the racecard. She’s on a hat-trick after pummelling a small field at Newcastle last time and that earns her top weight here. Brian Hughes is 10 from 37 at 27% for Adrian Keatley and after Golden Horn progeny hit the headlines over hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival, this mare is another flying the flag for the 2015 Derby winner.

What else catches the eye at Newbury?

Matt Brocklebank: Derham has a runner in all bar one of the races on the card at Newbury and I can’t be only one expecting Imagine to find his level before long. He’s been a complete flop so far for current connections but is coming down the weights and decent underfoot conditions could easily spark him back to life a bit.

John Ingles: Javert Allen looked good when making all over course and distance in December and is probably unlucky not to be unbeaten over fences as he probably did too much too soon when going down by a short head at Chepstow last time. He has impressed with his jumping in all his runs over fences and, given he’s only six and still lightly raced, he should take some catching round here again with further improvement to come in the two-mile chase (5.00).

Ben Linfoot: David Pipe’s Neon Moon won at this meeting last year and it’s interesting to see him declared for the 3m handicap chase that closes the card (5.35). He hasn’t been seen in three months but he’s got an excellent record fresh and he’ll enjoy the better ground, as well. Ben Bromley takes 5lb off him, too, and he’s well worth a look in the early betting for owners who have a terrific record at Newbury.

And what about the Kelso undercard?

Matt Brocklebank: I’m intrigued by Humble Jumble for Lucinda Russell in the bumper. He delivered in decent fashion after being well backed on debut back in early-November, when a lot of the yard’s horses were seemingly a bit behind in their work. He didn’t beat any stars that day but brings loads of potential into this race and they’ve presumably been waiting for the ground to dry up a bit.

John Ingles: Lucinda Russell has had trebles at both of Kelso’s last two meetings, so I’d be looking closely at her runners. Rocheval didn’t quite see out the longer trip in a handicap here last time but still ran his best race following an absence so looks the one to beat back at shorter in the novice hurdle (16:10), and the stable looks to have a strong hand in the bumper (16:45) with Ayr winner Out of The Woods looking best of their trio.

Ben Linfoot: Well, I’m fascinated by Mr Incredible. This time last year he was second in the Midlands National for Willie Mullins but since then his form is UPPR and he’s now with Sandy Thomson. His new trainer tried to run him in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby at Christmas which was the refusal but he’s been trying to get in his head since then and he needs to at least start here if he’s to run in the Grand National again. If he sets off he might well win the opener at Kelso!

The turf Flat season is already under way in Ireland. Awtaad and Paddington are previous winners of the ‘Madrid’ handicap at Naas (3.48) on Sunday – any Classic clues to be expected this year?

Matt Brocklebank: It’ll be really interesting to see which race Acapulco Bay runs in as he’s in the Madrid but the concluding contest on the card could be more suitable. He’s very well bred being a son of Dubawi out of a sister to Magic Wand, and he’s got the Derby entry having won a Curragh maiden when sent off odds-on following a debut second to Delacroix in August.

John Ingles: Aidan O’Brien has four of the top five in the handicap before the declaration stage but three of those hold Derby entries so they’re likely to need further than this seven furlongs. The other Ballydoyle entry, though, Serengeti is from a speedier family and has a 2000 Guineas entry, so he’s one to keep an eye on if taking his chance. He was still green when getting off the mark at Dundalk on his final start last year so there’s more to come from him this year.

Ben Linfoot: You never know and while it’s fraught with danger backing Aidan O’Brien’s runners so early in the Flat season if there is a Classic hopeful lurking you’d think it will be trained by him. Matt mentions Acapulco Bay but like John says it will be interesting to see if his stablemate Serengeti runs here, a Wootton Bassett colt who was sent off the 15/8 favourite when another stablemate, Twain, burst on the scene at Leopardstown last October. 11 days later Serengeti got his maiden win at two at Dundalk and an opening mark of 93 will be lenient if he is to justify 2000 Guineas and Derby entries.

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