Clues and analysis ahead of Altior's anticipated clash with Cyrname in the Christy 1965 Chase at Ascot

Saturday's Christy 1965 Chase won’t be a two-horse race, but only two matter according to the bookmakers.

Altior versus Cyrname, Cyrname versus Altior. The clash of the chasing titans is on at Ascot following Monday’s forfeit stage and it promises to be an early-season highlight which could go some way to setting the tone for the remainder of the campaign.

The November Meeting at Cheltenham wasn’t particularly kind to either Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls, the current champion trainer, but that will be long forgotten in Seven Barrows or Ditcheat respectively if this weekend goes according to plan.

Defeat for Altior or Cyrname will not spell the end, but could certainly instigate a swift change of plan. A crack at the King George VI Chase on Boxing Day seemingly awaits the pair of them, but who will have the bragging rights heading to Kempton?

It's time to tackle the big issues ahead of Britain’s most significant race of the season so far.

What are the cold, hard facts?

Well, that all depends on where you choose to look.

Altior has won 19 races in a row since being sent over obstacles, though he’s never raced beyond two miles, two furlongs. Cyrname, meanwhile, is undefeated (2-2) over Saturday’s distance of two miles, five.

Altior is 14-14 over fences compared to Cyrname’s 5-10, with the Grade One win tally in all codes a rather one-sided 10-1 in the former's favour.

And what of the ratings? If you take the British Horse Racing Authority’s official view for granted and apply the rough rule of one length per pound, then Cyrname (176) wins narrowly from Altior (175).

But Timeform take a significantly different stance.

Their jumps editor Dan Barber explains: "It’s not uncommon for Timeform and BHA ratings to differ, especially when it comes to those horses going into handicaps for the first time in their early days.

"But it becomes less frequent in the normally more transparent air of ratings higher up the scale, which makes the disparity in our respective opinions on Altior and Cyrname all the more stark.

"The BHA used Cyrname’s Ascot handicap rout as their basis for his claim to the status as the best jumper in training (176 vs 175), yet even with our lofty rating of 173+ on that same performance, Altior still leads the way on our scale with 180.

"Of course, we could have gone higher on the Ascot display, but there have been a good few examples of well-run races on Ascot’s chase track producing suspiciously dominant performances (Tamarinbleu or Tenor Nivernais, anyone?), and a Timefigure of ‘only’ 168 meant we felt it was sensible to exercise caution in handicapping that race – for context, Altior clocked a 180 when hammering Min in the 2018 Champion Chase.

"And then there’s the added layer of Timeform symbols. Altior retains a ‘p’ – an indication he’s yet to show his all – even at this relatively late stage in his career, which is a reflection of, in contrast to the full-blooded style of Cyrname, a horse who rarely has to do any more than is necessary.

"And it’s exactly that factor that makes Saturday so exciting – not only does Altior seem likely to relish the extra distance, Cyrname’s presence as the hare could just pull something outrageous out of the animal with, in our strong view, the biggest engine in training."

Exciting indeed. Don’t let the facts get in the way of a good story.

Horses for courses

Course form looks an interesting angle as Cyrname is considered to be something of an Ascot specialist following two impressive wins over the track and trip last season.

Previous chasing success at the course has been a key pointer to the winners over the past 10 years, with Al Ferof the only winner in that period to have raced over fences at Ascot before and not won.

The race was abandoned in 2014, while Vautour (’15), Captain Chris (’12) and My Petra (’08) were debuting over fences at the course.

Royal Regatta ('16) was 1-5 over fences at Ascot before winning, but five of the last nine winners were protecting unbeaten Ascot chase course records and for all the hype over Cyrname, it is Altior who slots into that category.

Henderson’s star won the Grade One Clarence House Chase in January by seven lengths despite showing a tendency to jump out to his left at times – his only run over fences at Ascot. In addition, he was 1-1 over hurdles there, having won as a novice in October 2015.

Cyrname’s overall course record stands at 2-3 in chases and 0-2 in hurdles.

Age is just a number…

Nine is clearly no age to be writing off any steeplechaser, but it could be a small issue for Altior in this particular race based on the historical trends.

First run in 1988, the 1965 Chase has been won by just one horse aged nine – the aforementioned, Nicholls-trained Al Ferof winning a ‘veteran’-dominated edition from the 10-year-old Somersby and 11-year-old Wishfull Thinking.

The most common ages of the winner are eight (10 winners) and seven (7 winners), with 6 six-year-olds and 4 five-year-olds victorious, adding to the argument that, generally speaking, the exuberance of youth should be considered a positive factor in the event.

Henderson v Nicholls

We all have a favourite, it's hard to deny.

The country's two most established trainers, big rivals Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls share plenty of characteristics with one another, and yet are poles apart in so many respects.

No matter your own personal view, Henderson and Nicholls are as passionate and competitive as they come, and neither will take defeat lightly.

Both have tasted success in Saturday’s race in the past.

Henderson has won it four times before, Top Notch his most recent scorer a couple of years ago, but the current top dog – Nicholls secured the champion NH trainers’ title for the 11th time in April - leads the way with six winners, all of which have come in the past 13 seasons.

Broadly speaking, Nicholls is arguably more of a ‘target trainer’, fine-tuning individuals to peak throughout the year in a bid to amass as much prize money as possible from his string before the major festivals even begin in the spring.

Altior won’t be going to Ascot half baked – far from it – but if one individual would be slightly more content with losing the battle to win the war at Cheltenham in March, then it’s hard to escape the idea that man is Henderson.

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