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Our star daily duo of Rory Delargy and David Massey are back with a look ahead to today's racing.
Racing betting tips: Saturday November 2
1pt win Martator in the 2.05 Ascot at 13/2 (General, min 6/1)
1pt win Amirite in the 3.45 Ascot at 5/1 (General, take no lower)
1.30 Ascot
Paul Nicholls is still struggling to get his team into form, with just the three winners since the start of November, and only the two runners at Cheltenham last weekend. Nicky Henderson is getting a few winners, but equally too many of his are pulling up for comfort, and that’s a concerning sign too.
Ben Pauling is in good form though, and of his five winners in October, four were ridden by Ben Jones, which hints that of his two runners here, it might be Leader In The Park that’s the more fancied of the two. He was a winner over hurdles at Doncaster earlier in the season, but as a half-brother to that smart chaser Benefficient, he’s more likely to do better again over the bigger obstacles, and he wasn’t the cheapest of purchases at £250,000 after winning his only start in points. It’s of some note that Pauling is switching him to the larger obstacles pretty quickly, and a mark of 121 looks more than fair to start off with.
2.05 Ascot
It’s back on the Venetia Williams bandwagon for the Pointers here, with the yard likely to start firing again very soon after their usual summer break. If we look back at last November, she had 13 winners from 37 runners in a five-week period, a remarkable statistic on it’s own, but that wouldn’t be the first time she’s produced such statistics in the early autumn, and that’s down to the way she campaigns her horses in the same way each season.
Although her first runner back, Hill Of Tara, could only manage fourth at Bangor earlier in the week, there’s no reason we shouldn’t be backing her runners blind again. Martator is her representative here, and he’s hardly a hidden one either, having won three handicaps back in the spring, and you can almost guarantee he’ll be fit after his break.
3.45 Ascot
Amirite ran poorly in the Kerry National but he was unsuited by the soft going there and looks fairly treated back on good ground. When racing on ground described by Timeform as good, he’s won two of his three starts and finished a good fifth in the Bet365 Gold Cup on the other. He did too much too soon when beaten in the Galway Plate two starts back and is on the same mark as when just outstayed from the last fence at Sandown in the spring. The cheekpieces he’s worn when below par on his last couple of starts are now removed and he should get back to his best with conditions in his favour.
Henry de Bromhead dominated a similar race to this at Cheltenham last weekend and has saddled seven winners from 26 runners in the past fortnight at the time of writing. His strike-rate with chasers in October was over 30% all told, and the positives far outweigh the negatives with Amirite, who hasn’t won in a while but is still just an eight-year-old with 14 career starts under his belt.
1.07 Newmarket
Heather Main has suddenly refound form, with the form of her last six runners at time of writing reading 112112, and the Ballydoyle chuckout The Caribbean might be worth a second look. Basically, he’s been on a handicap mark too high for too long, but is now 14lb lower than the start of the season and it wasn’t a disaster at Epsom last time, finishing midfield behind The Hodler. He travelled up well there and was nicely placed at the furlong pole before hanging any chance away late, and he wasn’t given a hard time once beaten. Better ground today should suit, and I’d not be giving up on him just yet.
Published at 0930 GMT 02/11/24
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