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Today's tips: Racing preview and best bets
Rory Delargy is back with a look ahead to today's racing and he's got four recommended bets on Betfair Chase day.
Racing Betting Tips: Saturday November 23
1pt e.w One Big Bang in the 2.30 Haydock at 9/2 (Bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5) min 4/1
1.5pts win Royale Pagaille in the 3.05 Haydock at 10/3 (General) min 3/1
1pt win Inis Oirr in the 2.05 Ascot at 7/2 (General) no lower
1pt win Colonel Mustard in the 2.45 Ascot at 12/1 (General) min 10/1
1:15 Haydock - 2m3f Handicap Hurdle
Although it remains a competitive race, I find it hard to believe Josh The Boss won’t go off favourite. Winner of the Silver Trophy at Chepstow on his reappearance and look how that has worked out - no less than six winners from those in behind, with second Doyen Quest laughing at them at Cheltenham last weekend and third home Take No Chances winning the Listed Mares Hurdle at Wetherby. It’s as rock-solid form as you’ll get, and for Josh The Boss to only get away with a 7lb rise for it is fair.
At a big price, Ngolo isn’t without interest having shown his best form here and Pat Neville is in better form than he was throughout last season. He’s unlikely to be the force of old but has fallen to a workable mark and 33/1 is tempting with extra places.
2:30 Haydock - 3m Handicap Hurdle
With Doyen Quest out, this can go to ONE BIG BANG. Trainer James Owen is winning with pretty much anything and everything at present, and One Big Bang is fully proven under these conditions, having absolutely dotted up over C&D in soft ground in March, barely coming off the bridle for an eight-length win. His reappearance second to Hymac at Newton Abbot, the pair miles clear of a decent one in third, can be viewed positively given Hymac’s third over fences at Cheltenham last weekend and Calum Hogan, who has been catching the eye in Ireland, is 1-1 for Owen having steered Ballydisco home at Ascot and the 7lb he takes off looks very good value. Take the early price and pray for the rain.
3:05 Haydock - Betfair Chase 3m½f
By the time we get to the Betfair Chase we are surely going to be looking at soft ground, and that rules two of these out at a stroke, namely Bravemansgame and Hewick. I’d also question whether Capodanno will handle a slog on his first run of the season, as he normally wants a run to get him straighter and his jumping doesn’t always hold up either. The Real Whacker looked tremendous before the Charlie Hall and I can’t help that might have been his target, while his jumping tends to be brilliant on good ground but slipshod when it’s soft.
Grey Dawning is obvious and I'd expect him to be fit for this. The question for me is that last 300 yards - we know he gets 3m, although that Hampton Court win at Warwick rather fell into his lap, they got racing a long way out, he picked them off and went left at both the last two fences - he does that here and he’ll give quite a bit of ground away. A little to prove, and looks short enough.
Can you trust Ahoy Senor to put two races alike together? A lot of that depends on whether you believe his jumping will hold up. He ran to form when second in the Old Roan last time, doing a lot of good late work (the stewards had a word…) but the more I look at the race the more I’m convinced ROYALE PAGAILLE will win it again.
Staying in slow ground is very much his game, and I expect him to be fully tuned up for this. We should not forget his overall Haydock record, four wins from five starts here and this is very much his track. He’s not always an easy watch but he’ll grind these down in the last mile and with the Whacker in the field to ensure no hanging around, I take him to outstay them again. The more rain the better his chances.
2:05 Ascot
INIS OIRR should be approaching peak fitness after a couple of runs in the autumn and he makes plenty of appeal now he goes back over a marathon trip today. Winner of the Edinburgh National back in February, where a combination of a first-time visor and forcing tactics proved the catalyst, his two runs this season, both over an inadequate three miles, have looked like confidence boosters after his fall in the Scottish National last year, and the handicapper is starting to give him a bit back after his 13lb rise for that Edinburgh National win. Alan Doyle takes a useful 5lb off his back as well, and this just looks a much more suitable test.
As it does for the gearless Fortescue, who was only just getting going at the end of three miles and a furlong at Aintree last time out, and that run would have been needed to get him somewhere near fit, having not been seen out since April. Henry Daly keeps on banging the winners in, with another three in the past week, and for all he hasn’t won for a while, he looks sure to give it a (late) go at a track he’s 1-1 at.
2:45 Ascot
Rory has a real soft spot for COLONEL MUSTARD despite his modest strike-rate (he also liked the Tim Forster-trained Professor Plum when I was a youngster, so perhaps it’s a Cluedo thing).
Colonel Mustard once again drew me in when an eye-catching second to Solness at Sligo on his return, doing good late work to get within three lengths of the winner despite giving him and Danny Mullins plenty of rope (Cluedo) in front. The son of Makfi ran well at this track as a novice when not beaten far by Jonbon in the Grade 2 Kennel Gate Hurdle, and he’s always capable of throwing a spanner (Cluedo) in the works. I think he’s a better horse at the weights than Blueking d’Oroux, who must concede weight to his rivals here having received weight all round when landing the same race last year.
Hopefully Lorna Fowler’s talented but frustrating gelding can belatedly reward the patience shown, although I’m happy to take the inevitable (candle) stick if he gets beaten.
(Can I just add, if it gets beat today, Rory will be getting the lead piping where the sun don’t shine - David)
Published at 0950 GMT 23/11/24
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