Alex Hammond: Wolfie wager! Cheltenham Festival bets

THURSDAY

Just a reminder that Sky Bet are offering money back as a free bet if you lose on the first race every day at Cheltenham.

JLT NOVICES’ CHASE 

This race centres around Yorkhill and whether his jumping can hold up sufficiently to demonstrate what he’s capable of between the fences to allow him to win. If none of that makes sense, basically he has a massive engine and if the fences don’t get in the way he will win. He’s a real livewire, but he doesn’t appear to have that natural ability to jump a fence well. It’s something that doesn’t matter over hurdles because they can skim over the flights without bending their backs. Over fences it’s a different story and he has looked awkward at times when he gets in close or scares himself by standing off. Ruby Walsh will have to be at his brilliant best to get this horse round clear, but if he does he should win and at 11/8 is it worth taking the chance? That’s down to you, but I believe he is the best horse in the race. Politologue is an interesting one for Paul Nicholls who fancies his chances of winning with this three time winner over fences. At 11/2 he is a more attractive price, but is he good enough to beat Yorkhill? That’s the conundrum. 

PERTEMPS FINAL H’CP HURDLE

For Good Measure looks the type that has been campaigned with this race in mind all season and with Philip Hobbs’ horses in such good form he’s one I like in a difficult race to find the winner in. He’s 10/1 and appeals as an each way selection in a red hot contest. 

RYANAIR CHASE

The only negative surrounding Un De Sceaux for this race is the likelihood that the ground will have dried out a bit too much for him to have his optimum conditions. However, I spoke with his owner on At The Races on Friday and their confidence is high. His 9/4 price isn’t going to make us rich, but he has so much going for him I expect him to win. The trip at Cheltenham should suit him well and will give Ruby time to sort him out at his fences. Alary is a huge price (25/1) for a horse that was considered Gold Cup class when he came over from France. However, he’s taking a long time to adapt to the British way of racing and has been expensive to follow since joining Colin Tizzard. He’ll make his mark at some point that’s for sure. 

STAYERS' HURDLE

I mentioned earlier that Harry Fry could have a superb week and if Unowhatimeanharry wins this race it will be a huge achievement for the west country trainer who has improved him beyond all recognition. He won the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at last year’s festival and he goes from strength to strength. He’s going to be hard to beat and as much as I’m a big fan of Cole Harden, on the face of it he has to improve to repeat his win of two years ago although drying ground will be in his favour. The favourite is 5/4 with Sky Bet and I don’t think they are being stingy!

BROWN ADVISORY PLATE H’CP CHASE

This is a tough race to find the winner of with big priced winners often the norm. Venetia Williams is a trainer with a good record in it and of her entries I like Tango De Juilley who hasn’t run since finishing second in this same contest 12 months ago. I wrote about the horse in my blog before the Greatwood Gold Cup giving him a strong shout out, but he wasn’t declared and of all the trainers with a licence Williams isn’t one I’d be worried about getting one ready after a year off the track. This horse will be finely tuned and runs off just a 1lb higher rating this time round. Sky Bet have him at 20/1 and I’ll be backing him to into a place once again. 

KIM MUIR H’CP CHASE

Jockey bookings are worth taking note of with the leading Irish Amateurs usually snapped up for the fancied runners with Jamie Codd being booked by Gordon Elliott for Squouateur. However, James King is a very good amateur who is really making a name for himself in the UK; he’s particularly good over fences. He is booked to ride Neil Mulholland’s Southfield Royale once again having ridden him in the Sky Bet Chase at the end of January. You may remember that I really fancied the horse to win that handicap chase, but he was the last to finish there on his first run since April. That should have brough him on a tonne and last year’s National Hunt Chase fourth has plenty going for him, not least a mark 6lb lower than at Doncaster. I’m hoping to recoup my Doncaster losses here. 

MARES’ NOVICES HURDLE

Warren Greatrex has a superb chance of winning this race with La Bague Au Roi. She worked well in a racecourse gallop at Newbury last weekend and is on very good terms with herself after a winter break. She’s 13/2 and faces some stiff opposition from Ireland, but she hasn’t done anything wrong with her only defeat coming when she was unwell. 

FRIDAY

TRIUMPH HURDLE

There’s a very short priced favourite for the Friday opener in Defi Du Seuil who was a 7/4 shot at the time of writing. Philip Hobbs has his team in tip top form and that may prove to be a great bet to start the final day. He’s done nothing wrong so far and I can see him stretch his unbeaten run to seven. 

COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE

Another tricky little devil to sort out with some horses having multiple entries. Dan Skelton won this race last year with Superb Story and has North Hill Harvey this year. He beat Modus in the Greatwood Hurdle at this track back in November and has been off since. He has been raised 8lb for that. He has obvious claims. This is a race I’ll be keener to look at on the day when I know what conditions are like and who has been declared. 

ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE

There’s a huge buzz around Death Duty for this Grade One, but he’s another at skinny odds. He’s 9/4 favourite with Sky Bet and it’s plain to see why with an unbeaten record over hurdles including in a Grade One last time out. The step up in trip will suit and he’s got strong form, but he seems mighty short. Having said that there have been a few short priced winners of this race over the years, namely Black Jack Ketchum, Wichita Lineman and Bobs Worth and you get the impressive this horse falls into that category. He is certainly the one they all have to beat with Gordon Elliott saying he’s the most talented hurdler he’s had through his hands at this stage in his career. He’s a three mile chaser in the making. 

GOLD CUP

For me this centres around Native River and Djakadam. It’s been well documented about how this race has fallen apart, but it still presents a fascinating conundrum. I’m sticking by my view that Cue Card won’t win as that’s been my stance for years! His trainer Colin Tizzard has what looks like a perfect Gold Cup candidate in Native River though and I backed him some time ago. He’s now 7/2. In fact Sky Bet can’t separate Cue Card, Native River and Djakadam at the head of the market; it will be interesting to see which of the trio goes off favourite. I’ve had a sentimental bet on Djakadam and it may not be a foolish heart ruling head decision. This horse has had an uninterrupted preparation for the race this season which he didn’t last year and despite that he has still finished second in the last two renewals. He has been well backed. Sizing John has good claims for Jessie Harrington although he is unproven over this trip. 

FOXHUNTERS

I’d normally body swerve having to sort out the Foxhunters, but On The Fringe deserves to be 11/8 favourite for Enda Bolger. There is a lot of confidence behind this horse who has an outstanding record in the race. He has won it for the past two years and has run very well on the other two occasions he has run in it. He showed his wellbeing when second to Foxrock at Leopardstown in a Hunters Chase. With that winner ineligible to run here the race should be his for the taking with Jamie Codd in the saddle. 

MARTIN PIPE H’CP HURDLE

Another fancied horse has been ruled out of the festival and a few ante-post vouchers were ripped up on Saturday afternoon with the news The Storyteller misses this race through injury. Willie Mullins is a trainer to follow in this tough handicap and it will be interesting to see what he runs on Friday. Watch this space. 

GRAND ANNUAL H’CP CHASE

The getting out stakes if you’re still standing! Again we are still a little way away from knowing who lines up in this, but if Starchitect runs for David Pipe I’ll be interested (he has three entries throughout the week). This lightly raced novice chaser won impressively at Ayr last time and although the runner-up let the form down on Saturday, he won in great style and is a classy individual. He has festival form having finished fourth in the Fred Winter in 2015 and then fifth in last year’s County Hurdle last year and his recent win should have given him a timely fillip. He’s an 8/1 shot.