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Alex Hammond previews the Investec Derby Festival at Epsom in her latest blog
Alex Hammond previews the Investec Derby Festival at Epsom and has a 40/1 value bet in the big race itself.
Can Saxon Warrior win the second leg of a potential Triple Crown in Saturday’s Investec Derby?
The simple answer to that is yes he can win it. Do I think he will? Probably. It’s hard to look past him to be honest, particularly when the mile and a half trip looks like it will suit him perfectly. The last time we spoke, before I headed off on holidays in my caravan, I said that he had all the attributes of a potential Triple Crown winner, not least his trainer, although I wasn’t convinced that he would stretch out for the mile and three quarter trip of the St Leger. Can you imagine what a boost it would be to the sport, though, if Aidan O’Brien’s colt were to become the first horse since Nijinsky in 1970 to win the three classics? It would be immense. He’s trained by the best flat trainer in the world and in Ryan Moore, he has the assistance of the best flat jockey in the world; a deadly combination for his rivals.
He’s 8/11 favourite with Sky Bet, so it might be as well to find some each-way value elsewhere. It was interesting to hear co-owner Michael Tabor this week flagging up Kew Gardens as one that could run well at a decent price, but it would be a huge surprise to see the 40/1 shot cause any sort of upset. He apparently lost one of his front shoes when finishing second in the Lingfield Derby Trial and the fact he got round Lingfield’s cambers on three wheels means that Epsom shouldn’t be a problem for him. In all honesty, you’d expect him to be ridden prominently but as there is plenty of stamina in his pedigree, maybe he could hang on for a place?
Take a trip down memory lane – what’s your favourite Derby winner and why?
This is a trip down memory lane! So I was a huge racing fan as a kid (anything to do with horses was my passion to be honest) and watched any racing I could when I was growing up. One of my earliest memories of the sport was watching Nashwan win the Derby in the hands of Willie Carson back in 1989. I have a recollection that the great horse was nicknamed ‘Nash The Dash’, he was to me anyway.
Ironically, my first job in racing was at his owner Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum’s Shadwell Stud in Thetford, just outside Newmarket. Nashwan was standing as a stallion there at the time and it was a huge privilege to see him in situ. I worked as an office assistant in the pedigree department in those days and was (and still am) fascinated by the breeding of racehorses. So, it’s Nash The Dash for me, even though I can’t remember the ins and outs of the actual race, but I have fond memories of it nonetheless.
The fillies take centre stage in Friday’s Investec Oaks. Aidan O’Brien has a strong numerical hand – will he win it again?
Can’t get away from the fella can we?! What a trainer, though. I know he has the horse power at his disposal, but he doesn’t seem to mess it up with many or any of them. He may have safety in numbers here, but he isn’t responsible for the favourite, that honour goes to Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby with 1000 Guineas fourth Wild Illusion. Unlike the Derby, though, this race is much more open. O’Brien’s strongest claims seem to lie with Cheshire Oaks 1-2, Magic Wand and Forever Together. The latter caught the eye that day and there’s not much between the duo. I’m going to bet on a home winner and side with the Clive Cox runner, Perfect Clarity.
She comes into the race unbeaten and has the added bonus of a win in Lingfield’s Oaks Trial last time out, so she should be better equipped than most to handle the unique cambers of Epsom and Tattenham Corner. She stays, is improving and should strip fitter for her seasonal reappearance, which was only the second start of her life. She’s 8/1 with Sky Bet at the time of writing and that’ll do for me.
Can anyone shake up Cracksman in the Investec Coronation Cup?
No, but I’m guessing you want more than a one word answer! I mentioned in a previous blog that Enable’s delayed reappearance would be to the benefit of her stablemate and this looks like it’s his race for the taking. John Gosden’s Champion Stakes winner of last year made a winning return in the Group 1 Prix Ganay back in April and we already know that this colt handles the course thanks to his win in last season’s Derby trial at Epsom and his placed effort in the blue riband itself. He seemed to get better and better with time as a three-year-old and another winter on his back has done him no harm.
It would seem his plans changed when Enable wasn’t going to be ready at this stage of the season as originally Gosden had suggested the Tattersalls Gold Cup followed by the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot could be on his agenda. He could still go for the latter if all goes well in Friday’s race. He’s rated way above his rivals on Friday and it will be a shock if this son of Frankel doesn’t win again. Mind you, he’s a 4/11 shot, so let’s hope it turns out to be the penalty kick we are expecting.
What do you make of the sprinting division following the return to action of Battaash, Harry Angel an Merchant Navy?
Well Battaash wasn’t visually impressive in the Temple Stakes at Haydock last Saturday, but that didn’t tell the whole story. He just got up to beat Washington DC with Kachy close up in third, but was giving 5lbs and more to all the horses in behind thanks to a penalty for his win in the Abbaye. Trainer Charlie Hills said he had put on plenty of weight over the winter and hadn’t come in his coat yet, so there will be plenty more to come from the four-year-old this term. He should be spot on for Royal Ascot where the King’s Stand is his target, for which he’s 9/4 favourite with Sky Bet and deservedly so.
The six furlong division looks tougher and more competitive with both Harry Angel and Merchant Navy now in the mix. If we take the Diamond Jubilee as the marker, then Harry Angel is Sky Bet’s 11/4 favourite with Merchant Navy a 4/1 shot for the Royal Ascot contest. Harry Angel is yet to win at Ascot, which could be something or nothing; he hasn’t had too many chances at the Berkshire venue to write him off there just yet. He will come on a tonne for his reappearance win at York and looks as brilliant as ever.
Merchant Navy is an exciting Aussie import who started his career Down Under where he had Group 1 winning form. He’s a southern hemisphere foal, so wasn’t born until our Autumn/Winter in 2014, meaning he won’t turn four until November. He made his debut for Aidan O’Brien at the Curragh at the weekend where he won nicely under Ryan Moore in Group 2 company over six furlongs. O’Brien said he had only “done five little canters” before he ran on Saturday, which should mean there is plenty of improvement to come. I think this import has jazzed things up a bit in the sprinting division and it’s good for racing to bring these horses into the mix. I’m not sure Harry Angel’s trainer Clive Cox will agree with that statement, though!