Alex Hammond answers the key questions heading into the weekend with Elarqam her fancy for the QIPCO 2000 Guineas at Newmarket.
The jumps season ended with an easy win for Step Back in the bet365 Gold Cup. The handicapper has put him up a stone, does that put paid to his chances in the big handicaps next season or is he one to follow?
Well he was certainly impressive and is another example of how well the Bradstock’s handle their small team of horses. He got in off 10 stone on Saturday and obviously that kind of hike in the weights isn’t ideal, but it’s to be expected. One thing is for sure, it’ll mean he gets into the Grand National field next year and that is apparently the aim. He’s proved to be a shrewd buy, at just £47,000 he has now won almost £100,000. It sounds like he has had a few problems, but his team are sure to handle him brilliantly and he’s one to follow for the time being. He’s now a 20/1 shot with Sky Bet for next year’s Aintree marathon handicap chase and it will be interesting to see how he is campaigned next season.
With the jumps over the Flat moves up a gear with the first Classics of the season this weekend. What’s your take on the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket?
The hat has well and truly been switched now! I wrote about the 2000 Guineas last week and to summarise I felt that Craven Stakes winner Masar wasn’t for me despite the fact we know he handles the track at Newmarket. Expert Eye disappointed me in the Greenham, but the vibes weren’t that strong on race day and he ran accordingly. He has apparently started to work better and I wouldn’t completely rule out Sir Michael Stoute’s colt. He’s 8/1 with Sky Bet, so just about fits the each way profile. Aidan O’Brien’s Gustav Klimt is now Sky Bet’s 9/4 favourite after a winning reappearance in the 2000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown earlier this month. He won despite the heavy ground that day and it was good to see him back after a premature end to his juvenile career. He has an obvious chance. One horse I didn’t mention last week was Elarqam and he is growing on me, particularly at his current price of 5/1. Mark Johnston’s colt is bred in the purple, being a son of two Guineas winners in Frankel and Attraction. He cost a pretty penny as a yearling, as you’d expect with that pedigree, but the 1.6m guineas is well within owner Sheikh Hamdan’s price range. He has apparently been suffering from cracked heels, but that isn’t a serious issue and he’ll have done plenty of work. He could be a superstar, so I’m just about plumping for him in what looks like an open Guineas.
And in the 1000 Guineas on Sunday is there a bet to be had?
Aidan O’Brien has his usual strong hand with market leader Happily his main contender and unfortunately it’s no surprise that Clemmie misses the race. Happily didn’t do much wrong as a 2 year-old until the Breeders’ Cup and you can certainly forgive a filly a bad run there at the end of a long season. O’Brien also has another leading hope in I Can Fly. Nell Gwyn winner Soliloqy and Prix Marcel Boussac victor Wild Illusion represent Charlie Appleby. I wonder if we can have a Northern clean sweep of the 2000 and 1000 Guineas? Like Mark Johnston, Karl Burke trains in Middleham and Burke will be hoping that Laurens has enough pace to win a Guineas. As I said last week, she has the classy form in the book, winning the Fillies’ Mile on her final juvenile start, but has real stamina on the dam’s side of the pedigree. She’s 8/1 with Sky Bet and that’s enough to tempt me into a small wager.
Ryan Moore doesn’t ride at Newmarket as he jets to Kentucky to ride Derby hopeful Mendelssohn at Churchill Downs. Can he land a blow for Aidan O’Brien in the great race?
Well this is a race that is really important to the Coolmore/Ballydoyle team and Mendelssohn has a live chance of giving O’Brien his first win in the ‘Run for the Roses’. He’s 4/1 joint favourite with Bob Baffert’s recent Santa Anita Derby winner Justify. The two colts are by leading sire Scat Daddy and operate well on dirt. Mendelssohn proved that when he won the UAE Derby on the surface at Meydan in March. He clearly doesn’t mind his jet setting lifestyle either as he also won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf back in November. Prior to that he was runner up to stable mate US Navy Flag in the Dewhurst, so plenty of boxes are ticked. The fact Ryan Moore is heading out there speaks volumes and I’d much rather be with him than against, even taking into account his wide draw in 14 in Saturday night’s race.
With great cards all over the place this weekend what’s your best bet away from the Classics?
Not a best bet, but I can’t wait to see Defoe in action in the Jockey Club Stakes, but he will be an odds on shot. Just worth watching if he runs as he’s a quality horse. As for a best bet, I’m looking forward to having a few pounds on Sharja Bridge in the opening handicap at Newmarket on Saturday. I thought Roger Varian’s lightly raced 4 year-old looked the type to make into a group performer when I saw him last season and providing he is fully tuned up for his seasonal debut he should take all the beating. I also thought that Alpha Delphini looked like he would improve for his seasonal debut at Musselburgh at the end of March and think Bryan Smart’s 7 year-old has much more to offer this season. He’s a 7/1 shot with Sky Bet for the Palace House Stakes and that looks tempting. Despite his age I think he is still improving.
Related links
- Latest Sky Bet odds and offers
- Latest racecards and video form
- Aidan O'Brien: Fate of the favourites
- Sky Bet Price Boost: Guineas double
- 2000 Guineas: Matt's Stats guide
- 2000 Guineas horse-by-horse guide
- 1000 Guineas horse-by-horse guide
- Pedigree Pointers: 2000 Guineas
- Key talking points: 2000 Guineas
- Alex Hammond: On the Guineas
- Ed Chamberlin: On the Guineas
