Fresh on the back of tipping Sealiway at 66/1, Matt Brocklebank changes tack with a long-range fancy for Aintree in early-November.
Entries for the Betway Grand Sefton Handicap Chase closed this week with 42 horses left in contention for the famous race.
Switched this season from its usual December slot to act as a new headliner for Aintree’s November meeting, it’s now one of the first really high-profile Saturday handicap chases of the autumn campaign, and the move has evidently been well received.
Given the new timeframe, horses can now be geared towards the Grand Sefton, Becher Chase (which retains its usual spot) and the Grand National itself, should connections be so bold, and one of the main elements of solving this particular puzzle will be filtering out those whose primary objective is to get round the course and leave something on which to build for targets over longer distances later in the season.
The good news for the home team – although Irish handicap chasers haven’t necessarily appeared as well-treated competing in the UK as their hurdlers in recent years, it has to be said – is that the Irish challenge at this stage is made up of just Ravenhill (Gordon Elliott), Roi De Dubai (John McConnell), Spyglass Hill (Henry De Bromhead) and The West’s Awake (Edward O’Grady).
On top of that, we haven’t had a single Irish winner since the race was revived in 2003 so despite novice Roi De Dubai looking vaguely interesting at 20/1-plus should conditions happen to come up on the good side, we’ll give those four a miss.
A recurring theme in the race – and just about any other event staged over these fences – is that previous experience has counted for a great deal. Seven of the past 10 winners had been around the National course in some capacity beforehand, while two of the other three (Hogan’s Height and Rebel Rebellion) had competed on the Mildmay course at Aintree en route to Sefton success.
I’ve not struck a line through anything without course form, but it’s clearly worth looking a little closer at those with it, and one who appeals at current odds is A TOI PHIL.
The 11-year-old has a wealth of experience to draw upon, including a 12th in Tiger Roll’s second National in 2019, and he’s starting the new season on quite a tempting handicap mark having slipped to a rating of 138, a full 21lb below his peak Irish mark when contesting Graded races for Gordon Elliott.
Granted, A Toi Phil isn’t quite the same horse he was back then, but it was quite significant that new trainer Gary Moore started him off in the 2020 Denman Chase at Newbury – where he was far from disgraced in fourth behind Native River.
He subsequently spent another 336 days away from the track but resumed with another fairly promising fourth behind Smarty Wild in a two and a half-mile handicap at Kempton in January.
That effort clearly showed his connections still have something to work with and, given he’s obviously become a little fragile, Moore will be keen not to waste many bullets when it comes to picking his targets this season. I seriously doubt the Sefton will be used as much of a 'stepping-stone', to be a little more precise.
The horse has clearly gone well fresh in the past, should be ideally suited by a taxing two miles and five furlongs with ease in the ground, and has safely negotiated the course before. There's plenty to like and I'm happy to chance him at this stage at 20s with Sky Bet and Hills.
Published at 1530 BST on 17/10/21
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