Matt Brocklebank looks ahead to day two of the Randox Grand National Festival, with four tips on the quality Friday card.
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Value Bet tips: Friday April 12
1pt win Theatre Man in 2.20 Aintree at 11/1 (General)
1pt win Golden Ace in 2.55 Aintree at 12/1 - NON RUNNER
1pt e.w. Shantreusse in 4.05 Aintree at 20/1 (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt win Ted Hastings in 5.15 Aintree at 16/1 (General)
The Randox Supports Race Against Dementia Topham Handicap Chase is the principal betting race on Friday and last year’s winner Bill Baxter could take a bit of beating again. The 2023 hero stayed on strongly in similarly testing conditions to defy odds of 20/1, but now heads the betting having slipped back to a mark just 1lb higher than when successful 12 months ago.
Trainer Warren Greatrex is in good form, which is a plus, although those revised odds do look plenty short enough given he’s undergone a breathing operation during the current campaign - running four times since the winter surgery and struggling to make any sort of impact, including twice on his preferred heavy surface.
I’ll happily look elsewhere for the winner this year and the eye is immediately drawn to Willie Mullins’ classy duo at the top of the weights – Classic Getaway and James Du Berlais.
James Du Berlais has looked an ideal type for this event since switching down the handicap route but you’d be hard pressed to argue he has stacks in hand from his BHA mark of 151, and he keeps travelling and jumping sweetly before cutting out and I can see the same thing happening.
Classic Getaway is just a very hard one to predict and has clearly had one or two physical issues throughout his rather truncated career.
Fellow Irish raider Life In The Park was staying on nicely when fourth behind Shakem Up’arry in the Festival Plate last month and the tongue-tie worn for the first time there is understandably retained, but at longer odds I’d rather be on the other Henry De Bromhead-trained horse – SHANTREUSSE.
Even a glance at his profile shows this one can’t have the ground soft enough, and while he hasn’t won a race since backing up his maiden hurdle win at Cork in January 2022 with a Grade 3 novice triumph at Clonmel the following month, he’s only a second-season novice over fences and still open to plenty of further improvement.
Set some stiff tasks first time around as a chaser, including when fourth to Gerri Colombe in a beginners’ event at Fairyhouse, he’s only run in four handicaps in his life and was better than ever when second to Battle It Out – to whom Shantreusse was conceding 17lb plus winning rider Charlie O’Dwyer’s 5lb claim – over a similar trip to the Topham at Naas last time out.
A prominent racer who jumps well in the main, the eight-year-old does look potentially well treated on his first foray to Britain since the 2022 Albert Bartlett, and the market hasn’t quite cottoned onto his claims just yet.
Earlier on, I can’t really take on Jonbon in the Melling Chase but do feel the mares are being underestimated in the Trustatrader Top Novices’ Hurdle, with GOLDEN ACE a must-bet at double figure odds.
We do have the second, third and fifth from the Sky Bet Supreme here and there’s no obvious reason why Firefox or Mistergif should turn the tables on runner-up Mystical Power from last month’s Festival, but Golden Ace really emerged into the big league with a taking performance at Cheltenham.
She was in receipt of 5lb from the three who immediately followed her home in the Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle but I thought she won with plenty up her sleeve in the end ,and the manner in which she settles and quickens out of bad ground will be a massive asset here.
Lorcan Williams was able to switch her off towards the back early on and effectively pick his moment to make a move at the Festival, knowing full well how strongly she was travelling, and she looks great value to reverse last year’s course bumper form with Dysart Enos, who was forced to miss Cheltenham due to a setback.
Dysart Enos is a blatant threat to the selection but she’s half the price which I don’t feel is quite right, while Fergal O’Brien’s horse probably wouldn’t want a complete bog to be seen at her very best anyhow.
THEATRE MAN looks quite nicely weighted back over the smaller obstacles in the William Hill Handicap Hurdle. He’s also attractively priced here considering he went off a well-punted 100/30 favourite off a 4lb higher mark in the Festival Plate at Cheltenham last month.
He’s yet to win a handicap of any kind but was untested in this type of scenario as a novice hurdler last term, before making a really positive switch to fences this season.
His placed form behind Brave Kingdom at Newbury in December and, in particular, Ginny’s Destiny at Cheltenham on Trials Day, reads really well and obviously contributed towards him being so popular last time, when Harry Cobden was drafted in for the ride.
Unfortunately for his backers, Theatre Man made a bad mistake and came down at the third fence and connections have opted to revert to his usual jockey Harry Bannister, who knows the horse so well. He’s yet to be out of the first two in four lifetime starts over hurdles and he positively relishes a testing surface (once declared a non-runner due to good ground).
The trip is ideal and he’s got plenty of encouraging form on flat, speed-orientated tracks too like Hereford, Doncaster and Kempton. I'd have him close to the head of the market.
The concluding Alder Hey Handicap Hurdle looks as wide open as ever – a 40/1 shot won last year – and I’m pretty keen to side with TED HASTINGS for Gordon Elliott and Danny Gilligan, fresh off the back of their victory together with Better Days Ahead in the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham.
Elliott has won this race before, courtesy of Chief Justice in 2019, and it’s interesting to note that he'd had a spin around Aintree before, finishing second in a juvenile hurdle at the track the previous summer.
Ted Hastings hasn’t been seen in public since Boxing Day but he was a creditable runner-up to Bingoo over this two and a half miles on that occasion, so it may have been the plan to come back here all along.
Being a winner at Cartmel and Perth in the summer months a couple of years ago, plus the Foxbrook Champion Hurdle Stakes out in America later in 2022, there’s a slight concern that conditions aren’t particularly going to be in his favour this week, but he’s also got some decent form on heavy going in Ireland too, including a close third at Galway in October.
The Aintree effort over Christmas - off just 1lb lower than his mark on Friday - was probably this horse’s best run since the trip to Far Hills in New Jersey, and it was pretty desperate underfoot that day too (Timeform called it heavy).
There are about six or eight genuine front-runners in this field so I don’t see the drop in trip being much of an issue either and there’s definitely a case to be made at the odds on offer.
Published at 1600 BST on 11/04/24
More Grand National tips and features
- Grand National Preview Podcast
- Horse-by-horse guide
- Statistical analysis and trends
- What the pedigrees say
- Graham Cunningham: Mission possible
- 'Jumpability' ratings and insight
- Key numbers behind the National
- Simon Holt on the remarkable Kitty's Light
- Record of Gold Cup horses
- Heavy ground Grand Nationals
- National runners who love soft ground
- Grand National Quiz
- Andrew Asquith's Weekend View
- WATCH: Grand National thoughts
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