Tony McFadden uses Timeform data to assess the strength of Aidan O'Brien's two-year-old team.
Monumental's victory in the seven-furlong maiden at Gowran Park on Tuesday carried extra significance as it provided trainer Aidan O'Brien with his 50th two-year-old winner of the season.
O'Brien's juvenile tally puts him nine clear of Karl Burke - whose 41 winners have come at a strike rate of 21.5% compared to the Ballydoyle trainer's 33.3% - and 28 ahead of George Boughey and Charlie Appleby who are next best.
But, much like Willie Mullins over jumps, O'Brien's dominance means that his performance is best measured by comparing his success to his record in previous years as opposed to how he is faring in relation to his rivals.
O'Brien had 49 two-year-old winners by the end of the first weekend in September. In 2023 that tally stood at 26, in 2022 it was 40 and in 2021 it was only 21.
O'Brien's tally of 31 individual two-year-olds winners in 2024 is also up on previous years in the same period.
There's plenty of quality to go with the quantity, though, as the Timeform ratings illustrate. O'Brien is responsible for five of the six highest-rated two-year-olds so far this season, all of which have achieved a Timeform rating in excess of 110.
In 2022 and 2023 only three O'Brien juveniles had earned a figure of 110 or higher at this point in the campaign, while in 2021 just one of his two-year-olds had reached that level.
O'Brien's two-year-olds in 2021 weren't a stellar bunch, for all Luxembourg and Tenebrism won Group 1s later in the campaign, and at this part of the season only two of them had achieved a Timeform rating of 100. That is remarkably low compared to recent seasons as nine runners reached that benchmark in 2022, 10 did in 2023 and 13 have this season.
In each of the last four seasons O'Brien has been responsible for Timeform's highest-rated two-year-old at the start of September, though this is one area where he is lagging behind slightly this time around compared to previous years.
In 2022 Little Big Bear had already produced a high-class performance in the Phoenix Stakes that resulted in a Timeform rating of 126p and saw him crowned champion juvenile, while last year City of Troy was well on his way to achieving that honour after bolting up in the Superlative Stakes and earning a rating of 119p.
No juvenile this year has outstanding claims to being considered the clear pick in the division and only 4lb separates O'Brien's top five. All five of those juveniles, headed by Bedtime Story with a rating of 116p, still have the 'p' attached to their figure to indicate that improvement is likely, and there is still plenty of time for one to establish themselves as the best around.
Timeform's top-rated juveniles of 2024
- 116p Bedtime Story (Aidan O'Brien)
- 115p The Lion In Winter (Aidan O'Brien)
- 113p Babouche (Ger Lyons)
- 112p Fairy Godmother (Aidan O'Brien)
- 112p Henri Matisse (Aidan O'Brien)
- 112p Whistlejacket (Aidan O'Brien)
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