Aidan O'Brien classic contenders to follow including Luxembourg and Tenebrism

Luxembourg (Timeform rating 118p)

5/1 for the 2000 Guineas; 3/1 for the Derby

Luxembourg looked a top prospect as he went unbeaten in three starts as a two-year-old, culminating with a ready success in the Futurity Trophy at Doncaster. He had previously made a winning debut at Killarney before following up with a stylish victory in the Beresford Stakes at the Curragh, storming clear late on to put some useful rivals to the sword by four and three quarter lengths.

Remarkably, Luxembourg was O’Brien’s twenty-first winner of the Beresford and he went on to emulate the same stable’s Saratoga Springs, St Nicholas Abbey and Saxon Warrior by taking the step up to Group One company in his stride at Doncaster. Sent off the 6/4-on favourite, he was settled in mid-division in the early stages and always seemed to be doing enough after making good headway to lead entering the final furlong, just needing to be nudged out from there to beat Sissoko by a length and three quarters.

O’Brien’s last two winners of the Futurity Trophy before this horse, Saxon Warrior (rated 120p as a two-year-old) and Magna Grecia (116p), both went on to win the 2000 Guineas, and Luxembourg fell in between that pair with regards the Timeform rating he reached as a juvenile. He also achieved a similar level of form as a two-year-old to his sire, Camelot (117P), another Futurity Trophy winner for the yard who returned the following year to win both the 2000 Guineas and the Derby.

Camelot’s progeny tend to stay well and Luxembourg’s half-brother Leo de Fury (by Australia) showed useful form at up to a mile and a half, so this horse should have no problem with the Derby trip. In the meantime, the speed he showed as a juvenile suggests he must be considered a leading contender for the 2000 Guineas first, also achieving a higher rating at two than six of the last 10 winners of the 2000 Guineas.

Native Trail (122p), the ante-post favourite for the opening classic of the season, was the only two-year-old to rank higher in 2021 and Luxembourg is rightly in the picture to go off second favourite behind that horse as things stand.

Tenebrism (Timeform rating 115p)

5/1 for the 1000 Guineas

Tenebrism was Timeform’s highest-rated two-year-old filly in 2021 after winning both her starts. The fact her second victory came at Group One level, in the Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket, would have been a notable achievement anyway, but that performance was even more remarkable when you consider that it was her first appearance since making a winning debut on the opening day of the season in Ireland six months earlier.

Tenebrism showed signs of greenness before coming through to make the perfect start to her career at Naas, quickening clear in the final furlong to land the spoils by three and three quarter lengths, but a setback afterwards ruled her out of Royal Ascot and the busy summer period.

The best of the fillies who had been making hay in her absence were in opposition in the Cheveley Park, so it’s hardly a surprise that Tenebrism returned an SP of 14/1 given her relative inexperience. There was no debating who was the best filly on the day, though, as Tenebrism produced a really strong finish from the rear of the field to get the verdict by a length, running to a high level on just her second start even if she was possibly advantaged in racing against the rail.

O’Brien has saddled no fewer than seven winners of the 1000 Guineas this century and Minding (120p) is the only one of them to have achieved a higher rating as a juvenile, while Tenebrism ran to a level in the Cheveley Park which, in pure form terms, would have been good enough to win three of the last four renewals of the 1000 Guineas.

The big question with Tenebrism is whether she’ll stay a mile. She is yet to race beyond six furlongs and her sire, the high-class sprinter Caravaggio, isn’t yet looking much of an influence for stamina. On the other hand, her dam Immortal Verse was a high-class miler who won both the Coronation Stakes and the Prix Jacques le Marois as a three-year-old, while her strength at the finish in the Cheveley Park also gives encouragement that a mile will be within her range.

With that in mind, Tenebrism should arguably be much closer to the Fillies’ Mile winner Inspiral (112p) in the ante-post betting for the 1000 Guineas.

Point Lonsdale (Timeform rating 114p)

10/1 for the 2000 Guineas; 8/1 for the Derby

Point Lonsdale looked the best two-year-old in training for much of last summer after winning his first four starts. After making a successful debut at the Curragh in June, he then followed a familiar path once trod by the same stable’s Churchill with victories in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot, the Tyros Stakes at Leopardstown and the Futurity Stakes back at the Curragh.

Churchill later added to his tally in the National Stakes, but that Group One is where Point Lonsdale’s winning sequence came to an end. Sent off the 13/8-on favourite, he was conclusively second best on the day and simply had no answer to the turn of foot shown by Native Trail, who took the spoils by three and a half lengths and duly usurped O’Brien’s colt as Timeform’s highest-rated two-year-old in training.

Nevertheless, that shouldn’t detract from the promise Point Lonsdale showed at two, particularly as he appears to be crying out for a step up in trip. He is sure to stay at least a mile and his pedigree would suggest that his future probably lies over middle-distances – his sire Australia is an influence for stamina and his full brother Broome is a very smart performer at up to a mile and a half, as he showed when gaining a first Group One success in last year’s Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud.

The 2000 Guineas is reportedly on the agenda for Point Lonsdale first and he will be well worth his place in the line-up, though it’s hard to see why he should reverse the form with Native Trail and his stable looks to have a horse with stronger form credentials in the shape of Luxembourg.

Instead, perhaps the best-case scenario for Point Lonsdale is a good run in defeat at Newmarket to put him spot on for the Derby, with the test provided by that race likely to play more to his strengths. It’s worth remembering that Australia himself finished third at Newmarket before going on to win at Epsom in 2014, while Broome was beaten just half a length when fourth in the Derby in 2019.

Concert Hall (Timeform rating 100)

25/1 for the 1000 Guineas; 16/1 for the Oaks

It’s interesting that O’Brien has trained the last three winners of the 1000 Guineas – namely Hermosa, Love and Mother Earth – and all of them were beaten in the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket the previous autumn.

That suggests it could be dangerous to put a line through Concert Hall as a classic prospect after she finished only sixth behind Inspiral in the latest edition of the Fillies’ Mile. She was outpaced soon after halfway on that occasion but kept on well again in the final furlong to pass the post only four lengths behind the winner, shaping like a filly who will be seen to advantage over that trip and further (will be suited by at least a mile and a quarter) as a three-year-old.

There is certainly plenty of stamina in Concert Hall’s pedigree. She is by the Galileo mare Was, who won the Oaks in 2012 and was among the first Coolmore mares to be sent to Dubawi following the thawing of relations with Godolphin. Dubawi is well established as one of the best stallions in the world and it’s a sign of his versatility that he has produced Group One winners over a wide range of trips – just last year, for example, Creative Force won the Champions Sprint Stakes over six furlongs and Yibir won the Breeders’ Cup Turf over a mile and a half.

Concert Hall herself won a Group Three over seven furlongs last season, namely the Weld Park Stakes at the Curragh, and the 1000 Guineas looks a good starting point for her in 2022, albeit she has plenty to find to get to the level of stable companion Tenebrism.

Of course, the one thing that Concert Hall has in her favour compared to Tenebrism is that we don’t need to take her stamina on trust. Instead, the opposite is true, possibly lacking the necessary speed to win the 1000 Guineas, but she is another for whom a good run in defeat could put her on the radar for a classic tilt at Epsom.

Tuesday (Timeform rating 90P)

12/1 for the 1000 Guineas; 7/1 for the Oaks

Tuesday only has a maiden victory at Naas to her name, that coming as recently as Sunday, but the fact she is already among the ante-post favourites for both the 1000 Guineas and the Oaks underlines that this is a filly who is likely to prove capable of much better than she has shown so far.

Tuesday filled the runner-up spot on her sole outing as a two-year-old at the Curragh, briefly running green under pressure before staying on strongly to be beaten just a short head. That looked a strong maiden on paper and the form looks even better now as the winner, Discoveries, went on to win the Moyglare Stud Stakes over the same course and distance.

By contrast, Tuesday had to spend nine months on the sidelines before finally getting the opportunity to do her bit for the form at Naas on Sunday. She duly opened her account in straightforward fashion, hitting the front entering the final two furlongs and just needing to be kept up to her work from there to land the spoils by a length and three quarters.

It goes without saying that the form shown by Tuesday so far is a long shy of what it takes to win a race like the 1000 Guineas, but it was only last year that O’Brien sent out Tuesday’s full sister Empress Josephine to win the same Naas maiden. Empress Josephine, of course, went on to win the Irish 1000 Guineas and O’Brien has already mentioned that race and the Oaks as potential targets for Tuesday, who should have no problem staying a mile and a half when the situation demands it.

Does Tuesday have the ability to win a classic when the time comes? Honestly, it’s too soon to say, but the fact that Empress Josephine isn’t even the best of the family to have reached the racecourse so far also helps to explain why so many people are excited about Tuesday. Indeed, she can also count a certain Minding among her full siblings, the filly who memorably completed the 1000 Guineas/Oaks double for O’Brien in 2016.

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