Adam Houghton reveals four key stats to keep in mind at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival.
16/24 – the number of races restricted to mares at the Cheltenham Festival won by Willie Mullins
The David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle was first run at the Cheltenham Festival in 2008 when Whiteoak won the inaugural running for Donald McCain. Then along came Quevega, who won the race six years in a row for Willie Mullins between 2009 and 2014, in the process breaking Golden Miller’s record for number of wins at the meeting by one horse.
For good measure, Mullins has also been successful in that Grade One (promoted from Grade Two status in 2015) with Glens Melody (2015), Vroum Vroum Mag (2016) and Benie des Dieux (2018), ensuring that their trainer has won nine of the 15 editions of the Mares’ Hurdle to have been staged so far.
The Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle has proved even more of a Mullins benefit since its inception in 2016, the trainer having won five of the seven runnings to date, all in successive years with Limini (2016), Let's Dance (2017), Laurina (2018), Eglantine du Seuil (2019) and Concertista (2020).
The team at Closutton have also dominated both editions of the Liberthine Mares’ Chase since that race was introduced at the Festival in 2021, with Colreevy edging out stable companion Elimay that year before the runner-up went one better 12 months later.
Looking ahead to this year’s Festival and Mullins is once again likely to field strong contenders in each of the three races restricted to mares at the meeting. Perhaps his strongest hand comes in the Mares' Novices' Hurdle as Ashroe Diamond, Night And Day and Lot of Joy currently occupy the next first three places in the ante-post betting behind favourite Luccia.
£91.60 – Gordon Elliott’s profit to a £1 level stake at Betfair SP if backing every one of his runners in handicap hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival since 2017
Gordon Elliott has saddled 34 winners at the Cheltenham Festival in his career and 11 of them have come in the handicap hurdles, including eight at just the last five meetings at which he had runners (missed 2021 when serving a six-month suspension).
It’s not just the winners which demonstrate how adept Elliott is when it comes to preparing his runners for the handicap hurdles at the Festival, either. Since 2017, he has supplemented his eight winners with five seconds, six thirds and three fourths.
In total, 17 different trainers have saddled 10 or more runners in the handicap hurdles at the Festival during that period. None of the others can match Elliott’s tally of eight winners – Willie Mullins is next best with five – while his strike rate of 9.88% (8/81) sees him ranked second behind only Joseph O’Brien (12.00%, 3/25).
Perhaps the most striking statistic is a level-stake profit of 91.60 points at Betfair SP. Veneer of Charm (won the 2018 Fred Winter at 50.0) and Commander of Fleet (won last year’s Coral Cup at 52.54) were both big outsiders when winning their respective races, but the other six were all relatively well fancied, returning an average BSP of 11.68.
Elliott will be typically mob-handed in the handicap hurdles at this year’s Festival, with the ante-post betting pointing to Maxxum (Pertemps Final), Imagine and Three Card Brag (both Martin Pipe) as three of his more interesting runners.
13 – the number of consecutive Cheltenham Festivals at which Davy Russell rode at least one winner between 2006 and 2018
Davy Russell partnered his first Festival winner when Native Jack won the Cross Country Chase back in 2006. He has ridden 24 more winners at Cheltenham in the interim to ensure that he is not only the most successful Festival jockey of those still riding, but he is also ranked joint-fourth on the all-time list.
Ruby Walsh (59), Barry Geraghty (43) and Sir Anthony McCoy (31) are the only three jockeys to have ridden more winners at the Festival than Russell, who has the opportunity to at least close the gap on that trio this year having u-turned on his decision to retire in December after the injury to Jack Kennedy left Gordon Elliott in need of an experienced head to partner his key runners.
Russell drew a blank at what should have been his final Festival in 2022, but that was a very rare occurrence for a man who usually gets at least one winner at the meeting, as he did in every year between 2006 and 2018.
Russell enjoyed one of the most memorable days of his career when riding a treble on the final day of the meeting in 2014, capped by a dramatic victory aboard Lord Windermere in the Gold Cup, while he won the Leading Jockey Award at the Cheltenham Festival for the first time in his career when riding four winners in 2018.
The Leading Jockey Award might be out of reach this year, but it will certainly be a surprise if Russell leaves the meeting empty-handed with big-race mounts on Mighty Potter (Turners Novices’ Chase), Teahupoo (Stayers’ Hurdle) and Conflated (Gold Cup) among those he can look forward to.
30% – the percentage of steeplechases run on the New Course at the Cheltenham Festival to have been won by front-runners in the last 10 years
The tactical advantage front-runners have in any given race, both on the Flat and over jumps, should never be underestimated. For example, if you had backed every horse who recorded a Timeform EPF (Early Position Figure) of 1 in British steeplechases since the start of the 2017/18 season, you would be operating at a strike rate of 23.80% and celebrating a profit of over 4,700 points at Betfair SP.
By contrast, the statistics tell us that backing hold-up horses simply doesn’t pay in the long run. Horses who recorded an EPF of 4 (towards rear) in British steeplechases during the same period have a strike rate of 9.28%, while horses who recorded an EPF of 5 (in rear) have performed worse still with a strike rate of just 6.72%.
- Timeform EPFs range from 1 to 5 and help to explain where a horse was positioned during a race. An EPF of 1 is recorded by a horse who led and an EPF of 5 is recorded by a horse who was held up.
When it comes to the Cheltenham Festival, the strike rate of front-runners in steeplechases run on the New Course is particularly noteworthy. For context, Cheltenham has staged 70 such races in the last 10 years and 21 of them – or 30% – have been won by horses who recorded a Timeform EPF of 1.
That makes front-runners the most prolific category of horse in those 70 races by some way. By comparison, horses who recorded an EPF of 2 are next best with a strike rate of 21.43% (15/70), ahead of those who recorded an EPF of 3 (20.00%, 14/70), 4 (17.14%, 12/70) or 5 (11.43%, 8/70).
Out of seven steeplechases run on the New Course at last year’s Festival, two of them were won by horses who recorded an EPF of 1 – namely Allaho (Ryanair Chase) and Coole Cody (Plate Handicap Chase) – and it would have been three had Galopin des Champs not crumpled on landing having jumped the last clear in the Turners Novices’ Chase. That race was won by Bob Olinger who recorded an EPF of 2, as did Billaway (Hunters’ Chase) and Elimay (Mares’ Chase).
Ahoy Senor (Gold Cup) and Allegorie de Vassy (Mares’ Chase) are just a couple examples of horses who usually like to go forward and are seemingly bound for big races which will be run on the New Course at this year’s Festival.
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