2000 Guineas focus: Runner profile of Charlie Appleby-trained Pinatubo

Pinatubo

• Trainer: Charlie Appleby
• Owner: Godolphin
• Jockey: William Buick
• Sky Bet 2000 Guineas odds: 10/11

News: Pinatubo team ready for Classic mission

Pedigree

For all the conjecture - the 'will he, won't he?' - surrounding Pinatubo and the likelihood of him training on as a three-year-old, his pedigree suggests he most definitely should.

His sire was the brilliant, wholehearted Shamardal who, like his son, won the Dewhurst as a juvenile before going unbeaten in his Classic season, landing the French 2000 Guineas over a mile, the French Derby over an extended mile and a quarter, before stepping back in trip to blitz his rivals in the St James's Palace Stakes only nine days later.

On his father's side at least, there is plenty to suggest that Pinatubo should continue to dominate Flat racing in 2020, while his dam, Lava Flow, was a Listed winner over a mile and three furlongs in her three-year-old campaign and was herself sired by brilliant Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner Dalakhani.

He might not be the biggest, but Pinatubo proved last summer that he has the heart of a lion to match his immense talent and his breeding, at least, offers real optimism that he might be even better over a mile in the 2000 Guineas.

Form

'We'll never see another Frankel', they said. Maybe they're right. But after six sizzling juvenile outings, Pinatubo retired for his winter holidays with a similarly unbeaten record, a host of barely believable equine performances on his CV and an official rating superior to the one Frankel held at the end of his own two-year-old career.

Frankel 126, Pinatubo 128.

Much of the reason for the handicapper rating him so highly is because of Pinatubo's extraordinary display in the National Stakes at the Curragh in September, one which saw him leave a host of smart colts trailing in his wake, and catapulted him to the top of the ante-post betting for the 2000 Guineas. The official winning distance of his defeat of Group Two Futurity victor Armory was nine lengths - certainly Frankel-esque in its manner. Coventry Stakes winner Arizona was back in third.

That maiden Group One success continued Pinatubo's rapid progression that began with a stylish but under-the-radar winning debut at Wolverhampton in early May before he followed up in the Woodcote Stakes at Epsom on Oaks day.

By the time of Glorious Goodwood, we were finally starting to take Pinatubo seriously after he had extended his unbeaten record to three with a crunching, authoritative defeat of Ballydoyle hotpot and subsequent Group Three winner Lope Y Fernandez at Royal Ascot.

The Vintage Stakes on the Sussex Downs was more of the same as he coasted five lengths clear of another smart field - the chasing pack headed by Solario Stakes hero Positive - before heading to Ireland to pass his biggest test so far.

With Ireland conquered, all that was left for Pinatubo was the Dewhurst and his first appearance in his home town. Ballydoyle came hard again: Arizona; Group Three winner Wichita; Naas victor Year Of The Tiger; and Group One runner-up Monarch Of Egypt.

One by one Pinatubo saw them off and though Arizona pushed him harder than he had been pushed before, for the first time suggesting he might not be unbeatable, he was comfortably on top of a very smart rival at the line.

Key quotes

Trainer Charlie Appleby on British Champions Series 2000 Guineas press call - May 27, 2020: "He’s taken on some of the most challenging tracks in the UK in Epsom, Goodwood and Newmarket. He’s physically done well and strengthened over the winter and I hope people will be pleasantly surprised with what they see at Newmarket. I don’t see the mile being a problem at all. On the dam’s side he’s quite stoutly bred and as an individual one of his key attributes is he’s very laidback, nothing fazes him. William will be able to put him wherever he wants in the race, he has natural pace to be able to park in behind and won’t take William on.”

James Doyle - May 25, 2020: "We're all very excited to see what he can do as a three-year-old. He's training well. I see him most mornings and he looks in fantastic shape. He's just started to step up his work and all the signs are really good."

Trainer Charlie Appleby following Dewhurst win - October 12, 2019: "He has been a very special horse this year for all to see. I'm sure you saw him walking around the paddock - he is a horse that has this demeanour about him that you can't get excited about in the mornings. I'd be making it up to say he was a 'wow' horse. He showed great courage today. He travelled nicely, but in this ground he had to dig deep. Will [Buick] gave him a fantastic ride and once he came to the fight he wasn't going to lie down."

Trainer Charlie Appleby after National Stakes victory - September 15, 2019: "He's done nothing but improve with each run. James (Doyle) said he didn't really travel in the first half of the race at Goodwood, and I said to William this morning, 'don't panic if this horse isn't travelling with you early, as at home he won't pick the bridle up. He's the best horse I've ever had as a two-year-old, there's no doubt about it. As soon as William gave him a squeeze he soon came back on the bridle and from two down I couldn't see him getting beat. It's not often you can say that at this level."

Trainer Charlie Appleby at Glorious Goodwood - July 30, 2019: "I'm thrilled with this horse - he is a true professional. He jumped and travelled well. James got him into a lovely rhythm and once he turned into the straight I couldn't see much coming from behind. You rewind back to Wolverhampton, he was a bit slow away and green and he picked up well. From there that is all we have ever seen."

Trainer Charlie Appleby assessing Woodcote win - May 31, 2019: "It was a pleasing performance. I said to James [Doyle] if you can hang on to their coat tails early doors I was confident he was going to come home strong. It was a little bit concerning when Mark's [Johnston] horse, [Misty Grey], had gone off as quick as they had and got that extended lead, but once he came down the hill and James got him levelled out I was pretty confident he was going to do his best work towards the finish."

Simon Holt - View from the commentary box

A repeat of some quite breath-taking performances as a two-year-old would surely see Pinatubo home in the QIPCO 2000 Guineas at Newmarket – if he has trained on.

The Charlie Appleby-trained colt was unbeaten in six starts last season, building on a debut success at Wolverhampton to take the Woodcote Stakes at Epsom, the Chesham at Royal Ascot, the Vintage at Goodwood, the National at The Curragh and, finally, the Dewhurst at Newmarket.

All of those victories were recorded decisively, and outstandingly so at Ascot (by three-and-a-quarter lengths), Goodwood (five lengths) and at The Curragh (nine lengths). On the latter occasion, Pinatubo looked one of the best two-year-olds of many generations, running right away from the Aidan O’Brien-trained pair Armory and Arizona in a blistering time.

The performance earned the son of Shamardal a sky-high official rating of 128 while Timeform rate him the second-best two-year-old of the modern era on a rating of 134, behind only Celtic Swing who achieved a higher figure when winning the Racing Post Trophy by 12 lengths in 1994.

Celtic Swing went on to be beaten a head at odds-on (by Pennekamp) in the 2000 Guineas and then won the French Derby.

Not surprisingly, Pinatubo started a hot favourite at 3/1-on to round off a perfect campaign in the Dewhurst. He duly got the job done over the seven furlongs of the Rowley Mile but this time it was a more workmanlike success and, under strong driving from William Buick, he had just two lengths in hand over Arizona who was ridden from the front.

Such were the high standards expected of him by this stage, it wasn’t the brilliant display that many may have anticipated even though a clear-cut two length win in a Dewhurst would be good enough to ensure top-billing in the ante-post lists for most Guineas.

At one point, I wasn’t sure if Pinatubo, who looked a bit diminutive compared to some of his rivals, was enjoying his first race on soft ground (the winning time was four-and-a-half seconds above standard) but, where it mattered, he knuckled down really gamely.

And perhaps it was too much to expect a repeat of his heroics at The Curragh at the end of a campaign which had begun in early May.

Racing history is littered with star juveniles whose early superiority was diminished a year later against slower developers but, equally, there are plenty of champions who led their generation at two and were even better as three-year-olds.

However, until you see proof that a horse has trained on, there is always a small doubt and, when a two-year-old is so far ahead as Pinatubo was last year, one has to speculate if his abnormal precocity was a big advantage.

News during the winter has been a bit sparing but, after a recent workout at Chelmsford, Appleby described the colt as being “bigger and stronger”, which he probably needs to be.

Pinatubo has never run over a mile but, considering both his racing style and pedigree, I cannot believe there will be any stamina issues.

A son of the late Shamardal, who has produced a whole range of smart winners from the Royal Ascot sprint double hero Blue Point to the Eclipse Stakes winner Mukhadram, his dam Lava Flow won over a mile and three furlongs at listed level for Andre Fabre in France.

As such, it will be surprising if Pinatubo cannot stay further than a mile and, with the long-range forecast suggesting the warm, dry weather is set to continue, there should be no repeat of the ground conditions in the Dewhurst.

All racing fans love to see a good horse, but Pinatubo’s price will be short enough for many punters and I too may seek value elsewhere given the possibility that last year’s dominance could prove unsustainable.

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