US Presidential Election 2024 betting preview: Tips, polls analysis and predictions for Donald Trump v Kamala Harris

Politics betting tips: US Election

3pts Trump to win between 45-47.99% of the vote at 13/8 (Sky Bet)

3pts Harris to win 80 million or more votes at 11/8 (Sky Bet)

2pts Election winner to lose popular vote at 13/8 (Star Sports, Betfair Sportsbook)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Exchange

Question: Which event generates more betting turnover than any other?

The World Cup final? The Super Bowl? The biggest boxing fights? Actually, the last two US presidential elections broke the all-time record and are on course to do so again. Here’s what you need to know.

VOTES DON'T ALWAYS WIN PRIZES

Winning the most votes (popular vote) does not necessarily win the election. Ask Hillary Clinton and Al Gore. Rather, something called the electoral college determines it. Each state awards a set number of votes to the popular vote winner in that state, based on population.California gets 54, Texas 40. South Dakota 3. Nebraska and Maine share their votes among the winners of congressional districts - a nuance which could prove decisive. In total, there are 538 electoral college votes (ECVs), so the winning target is 270.

Almost certainly, the result will hinge on what happens in seven, highly marginal states - Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Check out this interactive map to calculate the maths and various permutations.

In 2020, Joe Biden won six of the seven, excluding North Carolina. In 2016, Donald Trump won all bar Nevada. Were Kamala Harris to retain Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - plus the single ECV from Nebraska’s 2nd District - she would almost certainly hit the 270 mark. Lose Pennsylvania though, and winning becomes extremely unlikely. Lose Michigan, and she’d need to win what looks a tougher target in either North Carolina or Georgia.

I use the words ‘almost certainly’ because in theory, a state outside those seven could go against expectations. Minnesota for Donald Trump, or Texas for Harris. However in either scenario, it is overwhelmingly likely that they have dominated the key states anyway.

THE STATE OF PLAY

Writing this 11 days out, the race is genuinely too close to call. That is the only time I have ever said that about US Election this late in the process. Trump has edged ahead in the betting recently, but the evidence to justify best odds of 4/6 is patchy. The polling models give him around a 53% chance. I concur with that, based on what we are seeing in the key states, but there is a high degree of uncertainty. The margins are tiny, well within the margin of error, and the result may ultimately be determined by which candidate’s supporters are better motivated to vote.

THE CASE FOR TRUMP

The case for Trump regaining the presidency begins with the manner in which he lost it. All the polling evidence pointed to a heavy defeat, yet Trump vastly overperformed expectations. Despite losing the popular vote by over seven million, he actually gained more than 11 million votes on his victory in 2016, and the margins in those key states were very close.

He lost because, from basically day one of his presidency, a vast anti-Trump coalition formed, turning out in record numbers. No president before had such strong disapproval ratings and polls throughout his term - whether for elections, approvals or regarding his first impeachment - consistently showed over 50% in the anti-Trump camp. Biden marshalled that coalition for a record 81 million votes, without any meaningful splintering of votes to third parties, (which had cost Clinton in 2016).

It is one thing to unite a coalition against an unpopular incumbent. Quite another to do so when they are the challenger, running against an incumbent with, at best, a mixed record. When it seemed that Biden would be the Democrat candidate, Trump looked a very strong favourite. When he stood aside and his Vice President became the candidate, the Democrats got a bounce, but Harris still has to answer for their joint record in the White House, particularly with regards the economy.

In attempting to rebuild that coalition, Harris is threatened by small third parties. Michigan in particular looks vulnerable, due to anger from a sizeable, usually Democrat voting, Arab-American population at the administration’s support for Israel during the Gaza conflict. Israel-critics Jill Stein and Cornel West could swing the state to Trump, by merely taking 2% away from the Democrat. Early voting signals in Nevada are also very worrying for Harris.

While Trump’s approvals remain consistently low, he is polling much better in the head-to-head than before either previous election. Both times, late deciders swung to him. If losing the popular vote by less than 2% (his current average deficit is 1.7%), he probably wins the electoral college.There is a popular theory that he will always overperform the polls, because some supporters either don’t want to engage with pollsters or publicly acknowledge their preference. More than any other reason, this explains why betting markets rate his chance higher than polling models.

THE CASE FOR HARRIS

Polling firms tend to adjust samples when calling an election wrong, so the converse trend may in fact be true. At the 2022 midterms, the industry hugely overestimated Republicans, especially those candidates made in Trump’s MAGA image. Republican-affiliated pollsters swamped and skewed the polling averages and appear to be doing so again.

Those 2022 midterms reinforced the view that MAGA is ultimately a losing strategy, opposed by over half the country and sure to energise opponents. That seems even more the case following the Dobbs Amendment, reversing decades of liberal abortion laws and leading to extreme restrictions. Ever since, female turnout has soared, especially for referenda on the matter.

Trump was always toxic to a majority of women and now, a liberal woman is faring even better among them against him. Women usually comprise 52% of the electorate, and that could rise to 54% on some estimates. If so, and some early voting evidence supports that projection, Trump is done.

Yes, the swing states are very tight, but recent evidence suggests they mostly lean Democrat. Particularly the ‘Blue Wall’ which would likely propel Harris to the White House. Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania all have Democrat Governors and they are leading Senate races in all three states.

Likewise, in Arizona and Nevada, both of which have simultaneous abortion referenda. Trump’s two previous elections in the seven key states saw a very strong correlation between the performance of Senate and Presidential candidates from the same party. Popular Senate candidates may well pull late deciders into the Harris column.

Her approvals are far superior to Trump. She is heavily courting the significant minority of Republicans who dislike Trump - illustrated by Nikki Haley’s strong results in the primary against him, even after she had conceded, a constant stream of endorsements from senior Republicans, and warnings from former Trump officials who refuse to endorse him.

The election will most likely be decided by that cohort, turnout and late deciders. The Democrats have a superior ground game and in 2022, late deciders swung hard to them.

BEST BETS

One great strategy for politics betting, which applies across elections and countries, is to find options which could land even if the candidate loses.

First, Trump’s popular vote tally looks predictable. His base is incredibly loyal but his divisive style makes it extremely hard to convert opponents. His approval rating is remarkably consistent for that reason. In 2016, he won 46.1% of the PV and then 46.8% in 2020. His current polling average is 46.4%, which will likely rise a little once the undecideds choose. Take 13/8 that he ends up with between 45-47.99% of the vote.

CLICK HERE to back Trump to win 45-47.99% of the vote with Sky Bet

Trump is a turnout machine, guaranteed to energise both sides. I expect it will be at least very close to 2020’s 67% and maybe higher given the nature of a close, bitterly contested election, branded by both sides as the most important ever. Thus, 11/8 about Harris getting 80 million votes - compared to 81.3 million for Biden - looks a much better bet than backing her for the presidency at similar odds. I can’t see her winning with less and she could land this and still lose by a landslide.

CLICK HERE to back Harris to win 80 million or more votes with Sky Bet

Given how Trump is odds-on favourite, 13/8 about the election winner losing the popular vote looks way too big. Both polling models and betting signals project this outcome on today’s numbers.

The crucial point is that only one Republican has won the popular vote since the 1980s - George W Bush in 2004, set against a very different context to the ultra-polarised Trump era. Harris is hitting 50% in several, credible national polls already, before the late deciders choose. I rate 1/2 about her winning the popular vote as a really solid odds-on bet, but she can certainly lose the electoral college.

CLICK HERE to bet on the US Election with Sky Bet

Posted at 1520 BST on 25/10/24

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.