UK General Election betting preview: Paul Krishnamurty's tips and analysis

Politics betting tips: UK General Election

3pts Labour to win 400-449 seats at 19/10+ (Betfair Exchange)

2pts Liberal Democrats to win Witney at 11/8 (General)

1pt Liberal Democrats to win 66+ seats at 4/1 (William Hill)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Exchange

Politics is one of the fastest growing form of betting, even usurping sport on the biggest occasions. Thursday’s UK General Election is certainly that, even superseding the USA when it comes to the sheer number of betting options.

In addition to the main event – which party wins the most seats and/or an overall majority of parliamentary seats, who will be the Prime Minister – bookies offer odds on each of the 650 constituencies (electoral districts), how many seats and share of the vote each party will win.

Unlike sport, luck is not a factor

Many of the same dynamics apply as when betting on sport. There is a formbook – opinion polls, historical trends, the demographic balance of each constituency – and an army of pundits aiming to predict the result. Where politics differs, making it arguably a superior betting medium, is that luck isn’t a factor. Your selection can’t hit the crossbar, be brought down by another horse, or fall foul of a bad refereeing decision.

The context of this election is unprecedented and result regarded all but certain. Labour are trading at 1.01 on Betfair to win Most Seats and at 1.04 to win an Overall Majority (326 out of 650 parliamentary seats).

Disaster for the Tories looks inevitable

This has become ever clearer since the end of 2021, when the governing Conservatives were hit by a series of scandals, most famously ‘Partygate’, which would bring down Boris Johnson and decimate trust in the party, just as a cost-of-living crisis hit voters. A perfect storm.

Liz Truss became Prime Minister, only to resign amid economic chaos just 45 days into the job. Rishi Sunak succeeded her, but his own ratings gradually fell to similarly dire levels. All the evidence – from polls, by-elections and local elections – is that they are on course for a historic, worst-ever defeat. That was before a truly catastrophic election campaign.

At the 2019 General Election, they won 365 seats and 43% of the vote. In their worst ever result, 1997, they won 165 seats off 31% of the vote. According to current polling projections, they are around 20-21% vote share and 85-95 seats.

There are, nevertheless, a fairly wide range of possible outcomes. MRP surveys – which provided excellent forecasts at the last two elections – are showing wide disagreement regarding seat tallies. That is largely due to (logical and predictable) uncertainty about which party those previous Conservative voters will defect to.

By my reckoning, around 100 seats are still rated ‘toss-ups’. While the Conservatives are losing around half their voters from 2019, they are headed in various different directions. Many will vote tactically to eject them. The new party ‘Reform’ is particularly hard to predict. In Scotland, the SNP have been dominant for a decade but they too are falling back sharply. North of the border, all manner of tactics and unwinding of past tactics are in play.

Here’s my estimate:

• LABOUR 40% (438 seats)
• CONSERVATIVE 21% (96 seats)
• REFORM 15% (4 seats)
• LIB DEM 13% (66 seats)
• GREEN 5% (4 seats)
• SNP 3% (18 seats)
• OTHERS 2% (24 seats)

Conservative prospects and best bets

There has been talk throughout of a ‘Canada 93’ scenario. In that 1993 election, the governing Conservatives were all but wiped out, reduced to just two seats. A new right-wing party called Reform usurped them, winning 52. The parallels are obvious but I do not expect it to be quite so bad.

Their scope to make a serious comeback is miniscule. Not least because they’ve long reduced campaigning in the seats where they would need to challenge Labour in order to prevent a majority. But they are expected to hold on to at least 60 seats and could double that on a good night.

My betting plan for the Tories is to simply back a few constituencies where I think they can stem the tide. Outer London is still relatively fertile territory. Electorates in and around younger, higher-educated, Remain-voting regions swung away from them in the last two elections. That means the swing against them now will be nothing like as big as it will be in the pro-Leave areas involving older, whiter, lesser-educated populations.

We saw this in their one successful by-election defence, in Uxbridge and South Ruislip. A seat with a large Hindu population and assumed to be more favourable to Rishi Sunak, where the Tories had remained strongly locally. The boundaries have changed, but the new seat is Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner looks defensible at odds around 2.0. At longer odds of 4.3, Harrow East is plausible. Again, this seat has a large Hindu population and is always marginal.

A couple of prominent Tories, who aren’t as toxic or scandal-ridden as many colleagues, are also tipped at odds-against to survive. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is a 3.75 chance to hold off the Lib Dems in Godalming and Ash. And Penny Mordaunt – whom they should have made leader in 2022 – at 2.75 to defy Labour in Portsmouth North. As a former naval reservist who has been involved in some big local campaigns, I reckon Mordaunt might carry an extra personal vote.

One seat where the Tories are rated a banker is Reigate, in Kent. The opposition is split there.

Labour prospects and best bets

Labour’s best ever result came in 1997, when Tony Blair won 418 seats. The betting odds project them to beat that comfortably. We can bet around even money under 450 on Betfair, by laying the 450-499 and 500+ bands in their Labour Seats market.

Without questioning their dominance, I reckon they fall short of 450. The highest projections of Labour seats tended to come at a stage in the cycle when they were polling higher. They have slipped down below 40% in recent polls, and that shouldn’t be surprising or particularly alarming.

The mood of this electorate has never been hugely enthusiastic about Labour, rather committed to getting the Tories out. Labour were the default vehicle to do that, until the election campaign gave other parties a louder voice.

Once removing the seats where Labour are not the main rival to the Tories, we’re left with around 500 targets. The first 400 should be fairly straightforward but the rest are a taller order. Labour won’t be campaigning hard in all of them, and often have no history whatsoever of success in these areas. Indeed, just to get to the magic 326 number involves winning seats where they have never won. I am very confident that Labour’s seat total will land in the 400-449 band. Take 2/1 about that.

Labour are generally at prohibitive odds for their constituency targets, so I will just recommend one odds-on banker. Cannock Chase looks a rock-solid gain at odds of around 1/2.

Liberal Democrats prospects and best bets

This could well be their best result in 90 years. It was unimaginable at any point of the last 14 that they could become the second party in parliament, yet the Lib Dems are merely a 4/1 chance to do so, even though they are expected to finish fourth in terms of vote share.

Why? Simply, tactical voting. Throughout the last century, there has been a clear trend. When the Tories are unpopular, Labour and Lib Dem supporters tend to vote tactically for one another. That was famously the key during the Blair era, when they won between 46-62 seats (1997 and 2005).

Research taken in recent weeks suggested it will be twice the level of 1997 and that will likely increase in the closing stages, as engagement peaks. Doing so has never been easier, with various websites offering advice for each constituency. That means that, in 80-100 seats, anti-Tories will largely vote for the Lib Dems. This phenomenon has been underestimated by the bookies throughout and, while the odds on constituency targets have fallen sharply, there may still be some value around.

While my forecast is that they will win 30 fewer seats than the Tories, they could finish second if a dozen or so marginals go the other way. The odds about them winning 66+ (as per my forecast) represents outstanding value at 4.0. My forecast discounts a few seats where they start favourite (the aforementioned Godalming and Ash, for example, where the Lib Dems are 1.25 chances).

Indeed the odds about their target constituencies have fallen sharply over the past fortnight, and rightly so. I expect sweeping gains across Oxfordshire, Cambridgeshire and Berkshire; the South-West and along the ‘Sea Wall’ of the South Coast, where sewage spills are massively controversial.

At current odds, I recommend four constituency bets, all at odds-against. First, Witney in Oxfordshire is a prime target and tactical Labour support is expected to secure a comfortable victory. Next, the retiring Theresa May’s former seat in Maidenhead is a lot more winnable than the bare numbers suggest. Her majority was likely boosted by a big personal vote.

Newton Abbot is a complicated seat where all four parties could win. But the Lib Dems are the advice from tactical voting websites so 3.25 is very fair. Finally, 21.0 about them winning another complicated Devon seat, Torridge and Tavistock, could look absolutely huge on election night.

Reform prospects and best bets

What of the new insurgent party on the far-Right? Polls have indicated that Reform have slipped back a little, as Nigel Farage’s pro-Russia tendencies and racist candidates have been flagged up by the media.

I don’t believe that will prevent Farage winning Clacton, and they could still take a few seats where the demographics are favourable. Nor would a late swing, driven by their relentless social media campaign, come as a great surprise. Up to 20 seats is plausible on a great night, although I am awarding them only four, as it stands.

Betting-wise, I would restrict to longshots here. I’ve thrown a few pennies at Newton Abbot, Torridge and Tavistock, Brigg and Immingham, Bridlington and the Wolds. Each at odds in excess of 10/1 and up to 50/1.

As these results come in, the betting conversation will move on to the next big market: who will replace Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservative Party?

Much depends which candidates retain their seat. My pick at this stage is Priti Patel, who is expected to hold on in Witham and to then emerge as the unity candidate in a party shell-shocked by defeat, and under existential threat from her friend, Farage. Watch this space.

RECOMMENDED BETS IN FULL

Prices subject to fluctuation – visit Betfair.com for the latest

• Back Labour Under 450 seats
• Back Labour to win 400-449 seats
• Back Labour to win Cannock Chase
• Back Conservatives to win Reigate
• Back Conservatives to win Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner
• Back Conservatives to win Portsmouth North
• Back Conservatives to win Godalming and Ash
• Back Conservatives to win Harrow East
• Back Liberal Democrats to win 66+ seats
• Back Liberal Democrats to win Witney
• Back Liberal Democrats to win Newton Abbot
• Back Liberal Democrats to win Torridge and Tavistock
• Back Reform to win Brigg and Immingham
• Back Reform to win Bridlington and the Wolds
• Back Reform to win Newton Abbot
• Back Reform to win Torridge and Tavistock

Posted at 1440 BST on 02/07/24

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