UFC Vegas 9: Main card and preliminaries free betting preview and tips

Recommended bets

2pts Overeem to win by KO or Submission at 6/5

2.5pts Romanov to win at 4/5

1pt Muniz to win by submission at 4/1

• Prelims preview by Will Dean
• Main event preview by Kieran Cobley

Wait worthwhile for Romanov

By Will Dean

After waiting almost a year, Alexander Romanov finally makes his highly anticipated UFC debut on Saturday night. A former member of the Moldovan National Wrestling team, he has translated his grappling well into the sport of Mixed Martial Arts, achieving a perfect 11-0 record.

Romanov's intentions remain the same in every fight: get his opponent to the ground, smother them and unleash vicious strikes. While his size gives him a natural advantage when maintaining top control, his positional grappling is actually quite impressive.

King Kong also uses traps to restrain his opponents’ arms, rendering them unable to sufficiently defend themselves. The ‘Dagestani Handcuff’ has become a staple part of offensive grappling in modern MMA, and Romanov should be able to utilise it in this fight to create openings to deal damage.

While Romanov should dominate in top position, Marcos Rogerio de Lima has the clear advantage on the feet. In the Brazilian’s last fight, he scored a KO victory whilst retreating, a situation he will likely be forced into here. Romanov will be vulnerable when he closes the distance, but the UFC Apex’s smaller cage will keep him in closer proximity to his opponent, making the grappling easier to initiate.

De Lima is a strong test for any debuting fighter, but I believe Romanov is getting an opponent whose weaknesses play right into the Moldovan’s strengths. De Lima has struggled off his back in his UFC career and has questionable cardio in the later rounds. King Kong’s gritty style is exhausting to deal with and I expect him to break the Brazilian as the fight wears on.

Fab to fall to Muniz

By Will Dean

This bout should be a grappler’s delight, with both fighters excelling in opposing areas on the mat.

Bartosz Fabinski is one of the most ferocious and consistent wrestlers in the UFC’s Middleweight division, averaging a massive seven-plus takedowns across his four UFC fights. We last saw him in action at the Cage Warriors/UFC crossover event in March, where he completely nullified Darren Stewart as a 21/10 underdog.

Fabinski has smothered almost all of his UFC competition so far, but has never faced a legitimate Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner on the mat. From watching footage of his previous performances, he has some defensive tendencies that could certainly be exploited; shooting for takedowns with his neck exposed and leaving just one arm in his opponent’s guard. Both mistakes would have led to guillotine or triangle choke attempts, but he has not faced anyone savvy enough to exploit this.

That will change on Saturday night, as he faces Andre Muniz. The Brazilian is a legitimate Jiu-Jitsu black belt, with 12 submission victories to his name. To make matters worse for Fabinski, six of these have come from the bottom position.

The wrestler vs BJJ grappler matchup has been a storyline we have come to enjoy since the days of Royce Gracie at UFC 1, and this fight really could be a call back to that. Muniz has one of the most aggressive guards I have ever seen, and should willingly spend the entirety of the fight on his back as he looks to pounce.

This fight should be rather binary in its outcome: Fabinski will win the decision unless Muniz can submit him. When you consider that the Polish wrestler has never faced such an aggressive defensive grappling threat and has tendencies to make mistakes on the mat, there is great value in the 4/1 submission shot.

Over in a flash?

By Kieran Cobley

Alistair Overeem vs Augusto Sakai is a heavyweight clash I am massively interested in at UFC Vegas 9.

In one corner you have Overeem, a future hall-of-famer with incredible kickboxing skills and underrated grappling skills, while in the other you have Sakai, fighting in his first ever UFC main event having demonstrated dynamite hands with 11 career KOs.

The edge has to go to Overeem and given how much skill he has in the stand up, plus the experience he has in terms of cage time with 65 pro fights, it's worth backing him to win inside the distance.

'The Reem' has finished 41 out of his 46 wins, with 24 coming via KO and 17 via submission, showing that no matter where the fight goes, he is dangerous.

Sakai is no slouch, but If he gets caught in a clinch exchange with Overeem, he is in danger of being put into a Thai clinch and being kneed in the head repeatedly, and this is a tactic Overeem has used before in the past. Sakai has never been in a five-round fight, and if he can’t pace himself right he will gas out.

By contrast, Overeem is more than comfortable lasting five rounds with his experience in such circumstances plus multiple fights in Pride, where high-profile bouts would be scheduled for a 10-minute round and two five-minute rounds, showing that he is conditioned for longer lasting fights.

Look for Overeem to push the pace, closing the distance to negate any striking plans Sakai has before implementing his Dutch style kickboxing offence to get a knockdown. Should that happen, he will immediately follow his opponent down and look to throw some ground and pound that could open up the possibility of a submission attempt.

One way or another, he's a strong fancy to get this done inside the distance.

Posted at 1125 BST on 03/09/20

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